Housing:

the stupid economy?

Household projections (DCLG, Nov 2009)

2006 2031 Change

Total no. of households

21.5m

27.8m

+6.3m

One person households

6.8m 10.9m

+4.1m

1990s: the flight from the city

‘Previously healthy communities near city centres experience increasing social

polarisation, with those who cannot move living in a poor environment with high

levels of crime. Some areas … potentially face abandonment.’

Urban White Paper, 2000

Unpopular housing,1999

• 377,000 local authority homes

• 89,500 housing association homes

The vicious circle of tenure and conditions in poor neighbourhoods

Source: Power and Mumford, 1999

Source: Urban White Paper, 2000

£30,000

£50,000

£70,000

£90,000

£110,000

£130,000

£150,000

£170,000

£190,000

£210,000

1975 Q31977 Q31979 Q31981 Q31983 Q31985 Q31987 Q31989 Q31991 Q31993 Q31995 Q31997 Q31999 Q32001 Q32003 Q32005 Q32007 Q32009 Q3

Trend Real House PriceReal House PricesSource: Nationwide Building Society

Base : 2009 Q3Trend from 1975 Q1 to present

So is owner occupation working?

Source: Nationwide, 2009

The social cost of boom and bust

Source: NHPAU, 2009

…while recession hits the poorest areas harder

Source: DCLG, 2009

35% of homes fail decency standard (7.6m, of which 6.5m in private sector)

53,400 people accepted as homeless in 2008/09

64,000 in temporary accommodation in 2008/09

60% of social renters, 32% of owners, 26% private renters economically inactive

DCLG, November 2009

Key workers can’t afford average house prices in 70 per

cent of towns across Britain99 per cent of locations are unaffordable to nurses97 per cent to firefighters77 per cent to teachers 72 per cent to police officers

All figures rose steeply in the previous 5 years

Source: HBOS survey, 2007

In 1984 the average first-time buyer’s mortgage

was worth 1.99 times their income.

In 2004 the multiple was 3.03 times income.

Annual need for social housing rose from 93,000 in 2002 to 155,000 by 2006.

The number of new social lets in the same period fell significantly.Source: NHPAU, 2009

40 per cent of those buying a property in 2004/05 spent 30 per cent or more of their income on housing-related costs.Source: Expenditure and Food Survey

The widening gap

The value of the homes of the wealthiest 10 per cent of the UK population rose by 322 per cent between 1993 and 2003.

For the poorest 10 per cent the rise was 102 per cent.

2006 2007 2008Local authority 42,870 40,960 36,940Registered social landlords 30,170 30,770 29,240Private enterprise 675,120 691,590 717,840Total number of vacants 748,160 763,320 784,020

More and more properties are sitting empty

Hansard, 15 October 2009

The aspiration

‘Communities that will stand the test of time and in which people want to

live’John Prescott, 2004