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THE FUTURE IS HERE
THE FUTURE IS HERE@JAMESWALLMAN
THE FUTURE OF HOUSING13 OCTOBER 2016
Wayne Gretzky
“A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.”
AGENDA
• METHOD
• MACRO-TRENDS
• HOUSING TRENDS
• FURTHER FUTURE TRENDS
• TAKE-AWAY
METHOD
William Gibson
“The future is already here, it’s just not very evenly distributed.”
THE FUTURE IS HERE
1. Understand the macro-trends
2. Investigate the innovation
3. Use Diffusion of Innovations curve
THE FUTURE IS HERE
THE FUTURE IS HERE
THE FUTURE IS HERE
THE FUTURE IS HERE
MACRO-TRENDS
THE FUTURE IS HERE
RISING DEMAND London needs 809,000 homes by 2021
Source: London Councils
“What this country desperately needs… homes that people on ordinary incomes can actually afford to rent or buy.”
Campbell Robb, chief executive, Shelter
Image: Visualhouse & Dan Lowe
THE FUTURE IS HERE
ACCELERATING CHANGE
“The pace of technological change [is] making heads spin”
The Economist
Social Development Index, Ian Morris
THE FUTURE IS HERE
EVERYWARE • AI, AR, VR, ML, IoT
• Automation
• Always-on
“Facebook has more people than God on this planet, and can reach them on a mobile phone” Scott Galloway, NYU Stern
Mercedes-Benz’s self-driving car
THE FUTURE IS HERE
THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Software is eating the world”
Marc Andreesen, Andreessen Horowitz
THE FUTURE IS HERE
AMORTALITY People are living much longer.
And they “rarely ask themselves if their behaviour is age appropriate because that concept has little meaning for them” Catherine Mayer, Amortality
Duffie Grieve, 82, tennis champion Image: Bolder, www.be-bolder.com
THE FUTURE IS HERE
CARBON CONCERN
To hit the COP 21 target of <2°C, humans must become a carbon sink by 2070.
Source: Danny Dorling & Mark Maslin
THE FUTURE IS HERE
SMART LIVING We don’t want more anymore.
We want to be smart — to get more from less.
So move over “e-“ and “i-“, smart is the prefix of today.
• Smartphones
• Smart homes
• Smart cities
THE FUTURE IS HERE
SMART LIVING We don’t want more anymore.
We want to be smart — to get more from less.
So move over “e-“ and “i-“, smart is the prefix of today.
• Smartphones
• Smart homes
• Smart cities
THE FUTURE IS HERE
SMART LIVING We don’t want more anymore.
We want to be smart — to get more from less.
So move over “e-“ and “i-“, smart is the prefix of today.
• Smartphones
• Smart homes
• Smart cities
THE FUTURE IS HERE
STILL HUMAN "Human minds are the product of evolution, shaped by
millions of years of natural selection.”
Jason Collins, blogger, Evolving Economics
THE FUTURE IS HERE
EXPERIENTIALISM • Post-materialism: from standards of
living to quality of life
• Happynomics
• Sharing economy
• Community matters
• Light living: access not ownership
TRENDS
THE FUTURE IS HERE
UP! “London will have to be developed more densely… another 2.5m people… accommodating these sorts of numbers will inevitably demand more tall buildings.” Peter Murray, New London Architecture
At 234m, Spire will be W Europe’s tallest residential building
THE FUTURE IS HERE
REGENERATION NATION
Housing & Planning Act backs brownfield sites.
• Local councils active
• Brick by Brick in Croydon
• Gateshead Regeneration Partnership
U+I’s plans for Swanley, Kent.
THE FUTURE IS HERE
MICRO RISING
"Millennials prize experiences over stuff. They will sacrifice space for location…
“Millennial” is more of a mindset than an age group…
downsizing has been perceived as downgrading, but… that’s not the case anymore.” Andy Levin, Carmel Place
A Pocket Living development
THE FUTURE IS HERE
The ideal micro-apartment is 275-300 sq ft (25-28 sq m) Source: Urban Land Institute
• H&P Act makes more micro possible
• Twodios are 29 sq m 2-bed flat
• Pocket’s are 38 sq m
Pocket Living interior
THE FUTURE IS HERE
The Kasita is 300 sq ft.
“Young people don’t need much space since they no longer have the physical belongings (records, DVDs, books, magazines and even TVs) of previous generations.” Lucian Smithers, Pocket
• Pocket sold 200 units in past 10 years; 200 in 2016; 300 in January 2017
THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Cowboys that convert commercial buildings can easily flog a coffin-sized bedsit.” David Birkbeck, chief executive, Design for Homes
Pocket Living interior
THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Cowboys that convert commercial buildings can easily flog a coffin-sized bedsit.” David Birkbeck, chief executive, Design for Homes
THE FUTURE IS HERE
FLEXIBLE FRIENDS “amazing, transforming furniture–Murphy beds, transforming tables, etc–that most young renters would not typically invest in themselves” Andy Levin, Carmel Place
Carmel Place, NYC’s first official micro-unit
THE FUTURE IS HERE
Adjacent units in The Panoramic in San Francisco can be joined
THE FUTURE IS HERE
GENERATION RENT
• 80% rented privately in 1918
• 10% today; value £1.29 trillion, up 55% over 5 years
• 22% by 2025 Sources: ONS, Savills
Fizzy Living landlords vs renters
THE FUTURE IS HERE
GENERATION RENT
• Housing & Planning Act wants to stop “rogue landlords”
• Rent with Confidence is a Trip Advisor for renting
Matterport reduces friction
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FASTER HOMES A smart way to increase supply is “manufactured housing”.
“It means the client can get what they want rather than get what they can get.” Andrew Partridge, RSH-P
PLACE / Ladywell in Lewisham
THE FUTURE IS HERE
• You can build the Pop-Up House in four days using just an electric screwdriver.
• It's built to Passivhaus standards
A complete Pop-Up House.
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ECO HOMES • Exeter City Council
has commissioned more Passivhaus standard houses
• New materials such as wood
The Cube in Shoreditch by Hawkins Brown
THE FUTURE IS HERE
ECO HOMES • Exeter City Council
has commissioned more Passivhaus standard houses
• New materials such as wood
Y Cube: made from reclaimed timber; rents are 65% of market rate
THE FUTURE IS HERE
“WELCOME HOMES”
Connected homes will act like thoughtful servants.
• Virtual assistants
• Auto-recognition
• Cognitive computers
• Smart sensorsAmazon’s Alexa
THE FUTURE IS HERE
EMPTY NESTERS Under-occupied housing is one of the great problems — and opportunities — of our time.
• 16m in under-occupied houses
• 6m in houses with 2 or more excess bedrooms
• 4.5m 50-64 year-olds; 90% 65-79 year-olds
• 160,000 shortage of retirement homes by 2030 Source: ILC-UK
THE FUTURE IS HERE
LTBs (LAST-TIME BUYERS)
Government report recommended:
• remove stamp duty
• help-to-buy
• financial advice
Grove Park retirement community
THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Walk-in showers with grab-rails are good, but only if they look like something you’d find in a luxury hotel.” Lord Best
Battersea Place is London's first luxury retirement community
THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Walk-in showers with grab-rails are good, but only if they look like something you’d find in a luxury hotel.” Lord Best
Battersea Place is London's first luxury retirement community
THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Walk-in showers with grab-rails are good, but only if they look like something you’d find in a luxury hotel.” Lord Best
Battersea Place is London's first luxury retirement community
FURTHER FUTURES
THE FUTURE IS HERE
HAPPY HOMES "What's really going to make a home a happy place is what a resident does to it and… also the freedom a resident has to transform it… an abundance of daylight, generous ceiling spaces, as nice views as possible, and access to big outdoor spaces” Bjarke Ingels
At Big House, people cycle, walk past terraced gardens up to the 10th floor penthouses.
THE FUTURE IS HERE
TEMPORARY HOMES
“a building’s permanence — long considered major part of its value — may increasingly seen as a weakness instead of a strength” Johnny Magdaleno, journalist
Created for crisis, SURI units are more advanced than most homes.
• filter rain into potable water
• 10-year life span
• re-cycle, reuse, biodegrade
SURI by Suricatta
THE FUTURE IS HERE
CO-LIVING Co-living brings community to micro apartments.
• Private rooms
• Common areas
• Includes wifi, bills, cleaning, events
The Collective Old Oak Common
THE FUTURE IS HERE
• Common in NY, SF, DC
• StarCity in SF
• The Collective in London
• Roam in Bali, Miami, Madrid
• Soon also SF, London, Buenos Aires, Tokyo
The Collective Old Oak Common
THE FUTURE IS HERE
• Common in NY, SF, DC
• StarCity in SF
• The Collective in London
• Roam in Bali, Miami, Madrid
• Soon also SF, London, Buenos Aires, Tokyo
The Collective Old Oak Common
THE FUTURE IS HERE
RURAL MICRO Asset light is not because people have to. It's because they want to. It’s a lifestyle choice.
• Ecocapsule is the “Swiss Army knife of tiny homes”
EcoCapsule also filters rain water.
THE FUTURE IS HERE
• Harvard startup Getaway is for rural escapes
Photograph by Roderick Aichinger The Maisie Cabin near New York
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• Harvard startup Getaway is for rural escapes
Inside a Getaway
THE FUTURE IS HERE
VAN LIFE 2.0
Q: If your vehicle self-drives, what will you do inside it?
A: Whatever you want.
It's a small step from a tiny home to #vanlife.
THE FUTURE IS HERE
Trailer parks would be the ultimate in asset-light, community-oriented living.
Tony Hsieh's trailer park, Las Vegas
TAKE-AWAY
TAKE-AWAY
• GO MICRO
• STAY FLEXIBLE
• THINK ASSET LIGHT
• CREATE COMMUNITY
• REDUCE FRICTION — WITH TECH
• MAKE HAPPY HOMES FOR EXPERIENTIALISTS
THE FUTURE OF HOUSING13 OCTOBER 2016
THE FUTURE IS [email protected]
THANK YOUTHIS VISION OF THE FUTURE WAS INFORMED AND INSPIRED BY INSIGHTS & EXPERTISE FROM:
• James Hall, political advisor to John Healey MP
• Fionnuala Earley, chief economist, Hamptons
• Richard Brown, research director, Centre for London
• Kristel Tracy, communications manager, U+I plc
• Lucian Smithers, director of sales and marketing, Pocket
• Hannah Godwin, marketing executive, Pocket
THANK YOU• Meg Kaufman, project manager,
What Works Centre, Centre for Cities
• Henry Pryor, The Property Expert
• Harry Downes, managing director, Fizzy Living
• Jeff Wilson, founder, Kasita
• David Friedlander, tiny home expert
• Barney Stringer, director, Quod
THANK YOU
• Graham Hill, founder, Life Edited
• Nigel Howell, chief executive, FirstPort
• Sophy Taylor, founder, Taylor Made Media
• John Perry, policy advisor, Chartered Institue of Housing
• Ligia Teixeira, head of research and evaluation, Crisis
• John Tierney, director, Transform Management Consultancy
THANK YOU• Greg Wilkinson, policy consultant
• Andrew Partridge, associate partner, Rogers Stirk Harbour + Partners
• Vicki Macgregor, associate, curator of exhibitions, Rogers Stirk Harbour + Partners
• David Rabee, head of marketing (UK), Matterport
• Carl Kibblewhite, experientialist
• Katie Griffiths, producer, The Future Is Here
THE FUTURE IS [email protected]
