Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
BENGALURURESIDENTIAL
JANUARY TO JUNE 2015
RESIDENTIAL MARKET UNDER STRESS FOR THE FIRST TIME Will a resilient Bengaluru join the bandwagon of NCR and Mumbai?
Is this a one-off phenomenon or a trend to watch for?
NEW LAUNCHES DROP BY 40% Y-O-Y; DEVELOPERS RESTRICT NEW LAUNCHES
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
42,15536,145 35,545 32,589 21,40031,844 25,522 27,256 28,445 22,234
Launches Sales
No.
of u
nits
PRICE SEES A SLOW GROWTH
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
4,0204,296 4,473
4,585 4,650
INR
/sq
.ft.
NORTH BENGALURU EXUDES OPTIMISM
NORTH INCREASING ITS SHARE IN LAUNCHES AND SALES Y-O-Y
H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014 H1 2015LAUNCHES SALES
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
23% 22%26%
23%
20%
37%
19%
29%
45%
32%
48%
40%
12%9%
7% 8%
Central East North South West8,
221
7,02
9
16,1
07
4,16
2
4,75
9
6,81
2
1,94
7
7,88
2
26 63 6,96
1
5,24
7
13,0
50
1936
74 5,03
4
6,45
5
8,90
1
1,77
1
ELECTRONICS CITY, KANAKAPURA ROAD IN SOUTH MOST AFFORDABLE
75% OF NEW LAUNCHES BELOW INR 2.5 MN IN SOUTH
<`2.5 mn `2.5-5 mn `5-7.5 mn `7.5-10 mn `10-20 mn >`20 mn0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Central East West North South
INR
YESHWANTHPUR, RAJAJINAGAR IN THE WEST RELATIVELY BETTER LOCATIONS DUE TO METRO CONNECTIVITY
HOWEVER, SOUTH AND EAST MARKETS SUFFER
6 7 8 9 106
7
8
9
10
QTS
Ag
e o
f In
ven
tory
CENTRAL
SOUTH
NORTH
EAST
WEST
PREMIUM MARKET WITH APARTMENTS MORE THAN INR 2 CRORE REFLECTS OVERALL CITY TREND
LAUNCHES CONTRACT, SALES RELATIVELY STEADY
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
90001
,29
6
2,0
36
1,0
81
1,3
14
1,0
58
1,2
89
1,2
01
82
2
84
6
75
6
7,273
7,837
8,182
8,351 8,619
Launches Sales Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)
IT WILL TAKE AROUND 2.5 YEARS TO OFFLOAD UNSOLD INVENTORY IN PREMIUM MARKETS; CITY TO TAKE 2 YEARS
SLOWER SALES IN PREMIUM MARKETS
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-150.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
No
. o
f q
ua
rte
rs
PREMIUM MARKETS
CITY
NEW LAUNCHES TO IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS DUE TO ENHANCED BUSINESS SENTIMENT AND INCREASED OFFICE ABSORPTION BY E-COMMERCE AND IT/ITeS
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
LAUNCHES (UNITS)
SALES(UNITS)
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE
(INR/SQ FT)
H2 2014 32,590 28,445 4,585
H1 2015 21,400 22,230 4,650
H2 2015 E 29,700 27,900 4,751
HOW DOES BENGALURU STAND WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER CITIES
LAUNCHES- BENGALURU HAS THEHIGHEST AMONG 8 CITIES
H1 2015
BENGALURU 21,400
MUMBAI 18,887
PUNE 12,762
NCR 11,360
CHENNAI 9,102
KOLKATA 8,372
AHMEDABAD 8,062
HYDERABAD 5,457
H1 2014 H2 2014
MUMBAI 35,512 26,833
NCR 35,500 37,643
BENGALURU 35,545 32,589
PUNE 16,883 16,700
CHENNAI 11,377 7,318
HYDERABAD 7,899 5,151
KOLKATA 8,444 11,891
AHMEDABAD 9,021 4,991
SALES - BENGALURU SURPASSES
H1 2015
MUMBAI 28,446
BENGALURU 22,234
PUNE 15,524
NCR 14,250
CHENNAI 9,091
AHMEDABAD 7,751
HYDERABAD 7,123
KOLKATA 5,883
NCR AND EMERGES AS THE 2ND LARGEST H1 2014 H2 2014
MUMBAI 31,210 36,505
NCR 28,500 12,075
BENGALURU 27,256 28,445
PUNE 14,719 20,150
CHENNAI 10,315 10,643
AHMEDABAD 10,472 8,019
HYDERABAD 7,282 7,829
KOLKATA 6,390 6,245
BENGALURU REMAINS ONE OF THE BEST PERFORMING MARKETS IN INDIA
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 195
7
9
11
13
15
QTS
Age
of
unso
ld in
vent
ory
in q
uart
ers
MUMBAI
PUNE
AHMEDABAD
HYDERABAD
KOLKATA
NCR
BENGALURU
CHENNAI
BENGALURUOFFICE
JANUARY TO JUNE 2015
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMING WELLWill Bengaluru be able to maintain its lead in office demand? Will the supply be able to catch up with the demand?Will the IT/ITeS sector continue to lead the demand?
VACANCY REACHES SINGLE DIGIT AT 8%, LOWEST IN THE COUNTRY
H1 20
13
H2 20
13
H1 20
14
H2 20
14
H1 20
15
H2 20
15 E
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16% 1
01
.0
10
6.5
10
9.5
11
4.0
11
8.0
12
2.5
87
.0
91
.9
97
.9
10
2.3
10
8.3
11
3.3
14%14%
11% 10%
8%
Stock Occupied Stock Vacancy (RHS)
Mn
. S
q.f
t.
DEMAND OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY IN 2015, DEPLETING READY QUALITY OFFICE SPACE A CONCERN
H1 20
13
H2 20
13
H1 20
14
H2 20
14
H1 20
15
H2 20
15 E
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0 1
.70
5.5
0
3.0
0 4.5
0
4.0
0
4.5
0
4.6
5
4.8
9 6.0
1
4.4
0 6.0
7
5.0
0
New Completion Absorption
Mn
. S
q.f
t.
SHARE OF IT/ITeS DIPS, EMERGENCE OF E-COMMERCE
OTHER SERVICES SECTOR INCREASES SHARE; AMAZON, FLIPKART PICKS PRE-COMMITTED SPACE
IT/ITeS BFSI Manufacturing Other Service Sectors0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%54%
6%
15%
24%
53%
13%
4%
29%
50%
3%
11%
36%
H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
3.25
2.35
3.04
0.40
0.58
0.18
0.92
0.180.67
1.44 1.29 2.19
ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT
OUTER RING ROAD CONSOLIDATES ITS POSITION AS THE LARGEST OFFICE HUB
SARJAPUR ROAD IN ORR MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ABSORPTION
CBD & Off CBD SBD ORR PBD East PBD South0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
4%9%
71%
13%
3%2%
16%
69%
8%5%
H1 2014 H1 20150.
21
0.09
0.55
0.97
4.29
4.19
0.76
0.49
0.19
0.33
ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT
DEMAND CONTINUES TO OUTSTRIP SUPPLY IN THE COMING 6 MONTHS, VACANCY TO REMAIN STEADY
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
NEW
COMPLETIONS (MN SQ FT)
ABSORPTION (MN SQ FT)
VACANCYWEIGHTED AVERAGE
RENT (INR/SQ FT/MONTH)
H2 2014 4.5 4.4 10% 48.5
H2 2015E 4.5 5.0 8% 51.5
GROWTH 0% 14% 6%
UNTAPPED POTENTIAL IN THANISANDRA, NAGAWARANORTHERN CORRIDOR TO SEE DEMAND OWING TO RESIDENTIAL TRACTION, IMPROVED INFRASTRUCTURE, LOWER RENTALS AND GOOD CONNECTIVITY TO CBD
HOW DOES BENGALURU STAND WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER CITIES
SCARCITY IN QUALITY OFFICE SPACE – HIGHEST IN BENGALURU
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad -
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%22%
21%
8%
15%
18%16%
New completions Absorption Vacancy (RHS)
mn
sq
ft
H1 2015
AVERAGE DEAL SIZE LARGEST IN BENGALURU
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000 2
1,43
0
25,
622
71,
577
21,
434
24,
520
24,
702
23,
291
21,
872
54,
253
40,
773
34,
507
18,
585
H1 2014 H1 2015
sq f
t
KEY TAKEAWAYSRESIDENTIALBENGALURUONE OF THE MOST RESILIENT MARKETS OF INDIA UNDER STRESS FOR THE FIRST TIME
OFFICEBENGALURUTHE COUNTRY’S LARGEST OFFICE MARKET REELS UNDER SCARCITY OF GOOD QUALITY OFFICE SPACE
Q&A
