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Spatial comparisons of multidimensional poverty inequality in Malawi
ByAnderson Gondwe
PhD Economics StudentStellenbosch University
——Discussion Paper: ECAMA, Lilongwe——
1
10 October 2014
b
• Introduction & background
• Data & methods
• Poverty & inequality estimates
• Econometric results
2
• Pro-poor growth analysis
OUTLINE
Introduction
3
1. Malawi is a very poor country both by regional and international standards2. The poverty is in many dimensions3. Little progress at 50 years of independence (6th July 2014)
IHS3(2012) and DHS(2010)
1. 85% of pop in agriculture
2. Agric labour participation: 88%
3. 74% of pop no education
4. 21% never attended school
5. Literacy rate at 65% (>=15yrs)
1. 50.7% poor
2. Gini of 0.452 (previous 0.392)
3. Asset (PCA): quintile 5-Urban=66.3%-Rural=11.3%
4. Stunting(children <5yrs ): 47.1%
4
Research gaps
5
Research on multidimensional poverty on the frontier
Following the works of Sen (1985, 1987)
Booysen, F. et al (2008) excluded Malawi
Asset index not applied to Malawi
Previous related research in Malawi
Chirwa(2006), Mussa(2011), Gondwe (2011)
This study
Use of asset index, pro-poor analysis, different dataResearch
gaps
filled
6
Sex of household head:- Male (76%), female head (24%)
Areas:-Urban (16%), Rural (84%)
Regions:-Northern (12%), Central (43%) and Southern Region (45%)
Across
7
Population groups
Data and methods
8
Data (1)
DHS 2004DHS 1992 DHS 2000
Household data set:
24,825 households
Men’s data set:
15-54 years
Women’s data set:
15-49 years
Children’s data set:
4,801 (0-59 months of age)
DHS 2010
9
Data summary
10
Year Survey period No. h/holds No. of children
1992 September-November 1992 5,323 3,353
2000 July-November 2000 14,213 9,753
2004 October 2004 -January 2005 13,664 8,707
2010 June-November 2010 24,825 4,801
Nationally representative data sets
11
Child nutritional status
Height for age (HAZ)
Weight for age (WAZ)
Weight for height (WHZ)
Based on WHO Multicentre Growth Reference Study (WHO, 2006)8,440 healthy infants & children drawn from six countries across the world
(1997-2003: Brazil, Ghana, India, Norway, Oman and USA)
1. Stunting
2. Long term
1. Body wasting
2. Current status
1. Underweight
2. Acute & chronic
12
13
0.1
.2.3
.4
Den
sity
-6 -3.6 -1.2 1.2 3.6 6
Anthropometric Z-scores
HAZ WAZ
WHZ
Kernel density plots of anthropometric Z-scores for Malawi
Description HAZ WAZ WHZ
Age (months)
% below
-2SD
% below
-3SD
% below
-2SD
% below
-3SD
% below
2SD
% below
-3SD
0-23 38.77 18.31 13.56 3.68 6.41 2.55
24-59 50.84 19.79 13.95 3.37 2.34 0.80
Sex
Male 49.31 22.22 14.80 3.17 4.41 1.81
Female 42.26 16.25 12.81 3.82 3.76 1.30
Residence
Urban 39.72 15.39 11.57 3.14 2.35 0.58
Rural 46.74 19.82 14.17 3.57 4.38 1.72
Region
Northern 42.83 18.32 12.80 2.46 2.65 0.49
Central 45.58 18.51 14.27 4.03 4.43 1.83
Southern 46.54 20.07 13.50 3.19 4.06 1.52
Malawi
Rate 45.69 19.16 13.78 3.50 4.08 1.55
Poverty and inequality estimates
15
16
0.2
.4.6
.81
Cum
ula
tive p
rop
ort
ion o
f child
ren
0 20 40 60 80 100
Anthropometric z-scores
HAZ WAZ
WHZ
Cumulative density curves for anthropometric z-scores
17
0.2
.4.6
.81
Cum
ula
tive
pro
por
tion
of c
hild
ren
0 20 40 60 80 100
Height-for-age z-scores
urban rural
Cumulative density curves for height-for-age z-scores
18
0.2
.4.6
.81
Cum
ula
tive
pro
por
tion
of c
hild
ren
0 20 40 60 80 100
Height-for-age z-scores
northern central
southern
Cumulative density curves for height-for-age z-scores
19
0.2
.4.6
.81
Cum
ulat
ive
prop
ortio
n of
chi
ldre
n
0 20 40 60 80 100
Height-for-age z-scores
male female
Cumulative density curves for height-for-age z-scores
Measure
Description α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2
Urban area 40.8% 31.0% 26.4% 10.5% 6.7% 5.1% 2.5% 1.8% 1.5% 7.2% 2.4% 1.1%
Rural area 48.3% 38.0% 33.2% 13.7% 8.7% 7.0% 4.6% 3.3% 2.8% 53.3% 20.3% 10.1%
Northern region 44.8% 34.6% 30.0% 11.8% 6.8% 5.2% 2.9% 1.5% 1.0% 32.4% 11.0% 5.1%
Central region 47.2% 37.2% 32.3% 13.5% 9.0% 7.2% 4.5% 3.4% 2.9% 51.3% 20.6% 10.6%
Southern region 47.6% 37.3% 32.6% 13.2% 8.3% 6.5% 4.3% 3.0% 2.6% 44.5% 16.2% 7.7%
Rural north 44.9% 35.0% 30.5% 12.9% 7.3% 5.6% 3.1% 1.6% 1.1% 34.5% 11.8% 5.5%
Rural centre 48.1% 38.0% 33.1% 13.8% 9.1% 7.3% 4.8% 3.6% 3.2% 59.4% 24.0% 12.3%
Rural south 49.3% 38.9% 34.1% 13.8% 8.7% 6.9% 4.7% 3.3% 2.8% 52.9% 19.3% 9.2%
Urban north 43.8% 32.0% 26.0% 2.9% 2.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 8.6% 2.0% 0.7%
Urban centre 42.1% 32.4% 27.7% 12.3% 8.4% 6.6% 2.9% 2.1% 1.6% 9.2% 3.1% 1.5%
Urban south 39.2% 29.5% 25.3% 10.0% 5.9% 4.2% 2.3% 1.8% 1.6% 5.3% 1.8% 0.8%
Male head 47.1% 36.8% 32.1% 12.9% 8.4% 6.7% 4.3% 3.0% 2.6% 41.7% 14.8% 6.9%
Female head 47.6% 38.5% 34.0% 17.0% 9.3% 6.8% 4.1% 3.2% 2.7% 59.1% 25.8% 13.9%
Malawi 47.1% 37.0% 32.2% 13.2% 8.4% 6.7% 4.2% 3.0% 2.6% 46.0% 17.5% 8.6%
HAZ WAZ WHZ Asset index
20
21
0.2
.4.6
.81
Cum
ulat
ive
shar
e of
hei
ght f
or a
ge z
-sco
res
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Cumulative proportion of children
45° line Population
urban rural
Lorenz curves by area of residence
22
0.2
.4.6
.81
Cum
ulat
ive
shar
e of
hei
ght f
or a
ge z
-sco
res
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Cumulative proportion of children
45° line Population
northern central
southern
Lorenz curves by regions
23
0.2
.4.6
.81
Cum
ulat
ive
shar
e of
hei
ght f
or a
ge z
-sco
res
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Cumulative proportion of children
45° line Population
male female
Lorenz curves by sex of household head
Gini & Generalized Entropy (GE) inequality estimates
Measure
Description HAZ WAZ WHZ Asset HAZ WAZ WHZ Asset HAZ WAZ WHZ Asset
Urban area 0.683 0.461 0.281 0.326 2.165 0.756 0.279 0.205 0.852 0.364 0.149 0.170
Rural area 0.744 0.521 0.313 0.397 2.563 0.889 0.429 0.261 1.058 0.459 0.186 0.267
Northern region 0.733 0.502 0.290 0.376 2.416 0.787 0.292 0.244 1.018 0.424 0.159 0.230
Central region 0.734 0.513 0.306 0.457 2.547 0.918 0.430 0.353 1.021 0.447 0.181 0.356
Southern region 0.736 0.513 0.314 0.462 2.481 0.840 0.408 0.362 1.029 0.445 0.186 0.361
Rural north 0.739 0.512 0.300 0.361 2.487 0.794 0.310 0.225 1.040 0.441 0.168 0.210
Rural centre 0.742 0.519 0.309 0.394 2.608 0.943 0.450 0.257 1.051 0.457 0.183 0.265
Rural south 0.747 0.523 0.321 0.397 2.532 0.851 0.437 0.259 1.070 0.462 0.194 0.272
Urban north 0.680 0.413 0.197 0.337 1.811 0.691 0.116 0.200 0.845 0.282 0.075 0.180
Urban centre 0.681 0.475 0.292 0.338 2.189 0.768 0.316 0.220 0.850 0.390 0.166 0.182
Urban south 0.678 0.454 0.281 0.308 2.182 0.752 0.268 0.184 0.842 0.353 0.145 0.152
Male head 0.734 0.512 0.308 0.441 2.502 0.872 0.402 0.327 1.022 0.443 0.180 0.325
Female head 0.741 0.519 0.313 0.478 2.528 0.856 0.453 0.385 1.048 0.459 0.186 0.400
Malawi 0.735 0.513 0.308 0.453 2.505 0.871 0.406 0.348 1.024 0.444 0.181 0.346
Gini Theil L (theta=0) Theil T (theta=1)
24
25
Poverty mappingInequality mapping
Description FGT index α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2
Sub-group Pop. share % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont.
Urban area 0.150 0.130 0.126 0.124 0.126 0.129 0.126 0.086 0.088 0.084
Rural area 0.850 0.870 0.874 0.876 0.874 0.871 0.874 0.914 0.912 0.916
Northern region 0.107 0.100 0.098 0.098 0.100 0.094 0.094 0.071 0.051 0.043
Central region 0.464 0.463 0.465 0.464 0.478 0.489 0.491 0.496 0.523 0.530
Southern region 0.429 0.437 0.437 0.438 0.423 0.417 0.415 0.433 0.427 0.427
Rural north 0.096 0.090 0.089 0.089 0.097 0.091 0.090 0.069 0.048 0.041
Rural centre 0.396 0.402 0.405 0.405 0.413 0.422 0.427 0.451 0.478 0.491
Rural south 0.358 0.377 0.380 0.382 0.364 0.358 0.358 0.394 0.385 0.384
Urban north 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.003 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.002
Urban centre 0.067 0.060 0.059 0.058 0.064 0.066 0.064 0.045 0.045 0.039
Urban south 0.072 0.060 0.057 0.056 0.059 0.059 0.057 0.039 0.041 0.043
Male head 0.919 0.919 0.916 0.915 0.900 0.914 0.919 0.916 0.906 0.904
Female head 0.081 0.081 0.084 0.085 0.100 0.086 0.081 0.084 0.094 0.096
Population 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
HAZ WAZ WHZNutritional status indicator
26
OLS results
27
28
Variables HAZ SE WAZ SE WHZ SE
Age in months -0.085*** (0.006) -0.039*** (0.004) 0.004 (0.005)
Square of age 0.114*** (0.010) 0.044*** (0.007) -0.004 (0.008)
Female child 0.248*** (0.047) 0.071* (0.034) -0.068 (0.040)
Child is twin -0.832*** (0.122) -0.789*** (0.086) -0.202* (0.103)
Birth order number 0.018 (0.012) 0.025** (0.009) 0.023* (0.010)
Mother's education Incomplete primary 0.086 (0.073) 0.153** (0.050) 0.128* (0.058)
Complete primary 0.178 (0.101) 0.176* (0.070) 0.15 (0.088)
Incomplete secondary 0.320** (0.109) 0.275*** (0.076) 0.1 (0.088)
Complete secondary 0.223 (0.148) 0.311** (0.105) 0.330** (0.126)
Post secondary 0.946* (0.421) 0.624* (0.264) 0.164 (0.397)
Father's education Incomplete primary -0.005 (0.092) -0.148* (0.063) -0.092 (0.073)
Complete primary -0.102 (0.118) -0.15 (0.084) 0.004 (0.096)
Incomplete secondary 0.009 (0.104) -0.092 (0.074) -0.052 (0.085)
Post secondary 0.092 (0.229) -0.12 (0.129) -0.212 (0.181)
Asset index 0.217*** (0.046) 0.179*** (0.033) -0.004 (0.039)
Square of asset index -0.028* (0.012) -0.018* (0.008) 0.013 (0.011)
Constant -1.048*** (0.167) -0.324** (0.115) 0.199 (0.138)
R-squared 0.084
0.070
0.002 Prob > F 0.000
0.000
0.034
N 4,574
4,700
4,531 *p<0.05,**p<0.01, ***p<0.001
29
30
0.2
.4.6
.81
Pov
erty
hea
dcou
nt
0 20 40 60 80 100
Height for age z-scores(HAZ)
1992 2000
2004 2010
Poverty incidence curves for HAZ by survey year
31
1. Positive growth2. Absolute pro-poor growth3. Relative and pro-poor growth
0
.02
.04
.06
.08
.1
Abso
lute
cha
nge
in h
eigh
t-for
-age
sco
res
0 20 40 60 80 100
Height-for-age scores
Confidence interval (95 %) Estimated difference
1992 minus 2010:first order
Absolute pro-poor growth in height-for-age scores
32
Asset index Estimate Std. Err. t P>|t| Pov. line
1992 0.795 0.006 143.76 0.000 0.784 0.806 0.807
2000 0.805 0.003 242.46 0.000 0.799 0.812 0.807
Difference 0.01 0.006 1.56 0.118 -0.003 0.023 ---
2000 0.805 0.003 242.46 0.000 0.799 0.812 0.807
2004 0.785 0.004 223.15 0.000 0.778 0.792 0.807
Difference -0.021 0.005 -4.26 0.000 -0.03 -0.011 ---
2004 0.785 0.004 223.15 0.000 0.778 0.792 0.807
2010 0.5 0.007 70.05 0.000 0.486 0.514 0.807
Difference -0.284 0.008 -35.73 0.000 -0.3 -0.269 ---
1992 0.795 0.006 143.76 0.000 0.784 0.806 0.807
2010 0.5 0.007 70.05 0.000 0.486 0.514 0.807
Difference -0.295 0.009 -32.65 0.000 -0.313 -0.277 ---
[95% Conf. interval]
33
Questions & contributions
34