Shine, clare media academy sustainability presentation shine (21 july 2015)

Clare ShineVice-President and Chief Program Officer

Sustainability, Mindsets & Media

Salzburg Academy on Media and Global Change

21 July 2015

2https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Gorilla_Conservation_Programme

3

http://bgr.com/2015/07/03/dolphin-attack-rare-accident/

4

http://time.com/2894694/massimo-sestini-boat-italy-migrants-mare-nostrum-risk-europe/

5

http://matthewniederhauser.com/research/2011/03/30/counterfeit-paradises-windows-on-the-world/

Competition… against what and who?

Post-2015 Planet: the need for new collaborative paradigms

7

http://21centurygreengoddess.blogspot.com/2011/01/definition-day-sustainability.html

SUSTAINABILITY

Salzburg Global: Program Concentrations 2016-2018

8

JUSTICE

IMAGINATION

Conflict Transformation

Urban Transformation

Human Transformation

Program Concentrations 2016-2018

9

Urban Transformation

Pictures: WBCSD Urban Infrastructure Initiative, courtesy of Perry Heijne

“SPEED and

THE CITY:Can Humans

Keep Up?”

Salzburg Global Seminar Board Meeting

Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

Sources- “World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision”, UN, 2013; "Atlas of World Population History," McEvedy, Colin and Richard Jones, 1978

World population has reached its first billion around 1804. In the last 2 centuries , the next 6 billions have been reached and another 4 will be delivered by the end of this century. However, population growth is starting to slow down.. The annual population growth between the 3rd billion and the 7th billion was 1.7% while the expected growth from now till 2100 will be 0.5%. Population growth will be driven mainly by Asia and Africa which will represent 51% and 29% respectively by 2062 of total global population

THE WORLD POPULATION WILL THE WORLD POPULATION WILL THE WORLD POPULATION WILL THE WORLD POPULATION WILL

REACH 8 BILLION by 2024REACH 8 BILLION by 2024REACH 8 BILLION by 2024REACH 8 BILLION by 2024, , , , 12 years

since its last billion, but increasing at a

decreasing rate

Global Population(In Billions, CE 1-2100)

Years Taken to Reach

127

31

Population Billions by Region (1804 – 2062)

1975

(59%)

(10%)

(17%) (8%)(5%)(1%)

2012

(60%)

(15%)

(10%)(9%)(1%)(5%)

1804

(21.8%)

(9%) (3%) (2%)(0.2%)

(64%)Asia

Africa

Europe

Latin America

North America

Oceania

2062

(51%)

(29%) (7%)

(8%) (4%)(1%)

15

12

12

13

12

16

22

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

10

11

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2 Billion


WESTERN AFRICA, WESTERN AFRICA, WESTERN AFRICA, WESTERN AFRICA,

EASTERN AFRICA EASTERN AFRICA EASTERN AFRICA EASTERN AFRICA

AND MIDDLE AFRICA AND MIDDLE AFRICA AND MIDDLE AFRICA AND MIDDLE AFRICA

ARE EXPECTED TO ARE EXPECTED TO ARE EXPECTED TO ARE EXPECTED TO

POST THE HIGHEST POST THE HIGHEST POST THE HIGHEST POST THE HIGHEST

GROWTH RATES, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH RATES,

REACHING 500%REACHING 500%REACHING 500%REACHING 500%

With a projected growth of 1.3 billion between now and 2050, Africa will add more population than any world region. Virtually all of that growth will be in sub-Saharan Africa, the region’s poorest


6,500

6,000

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Rural

Urban

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

Growth in Urban vs Rural Population Globally (In Millions, 1950-2050)

Forecast

Additional Urban Population

every week(In Millions)

5.3 6.4 7.7 10.3 10.9 13.8 14.8 13.9 12.6 11.9

Source: “World Urbanization Prospects”, United Nations, 2014

BY 2050, TWO THIRDS OF BY 2050, TWO THIRDS OF BY 2050, TWO THIRDS OF BY 2050, TWO THIRDS OF

GLOBAL POPULATION WILL BE GLOBAL POPULATION WILL BE GLOBAL POPULATION WILL BE GLOBAL POPULATION WILL BE

LIVING IN URBAN AREASLIVING IN URBAN AREASLIVING IN URBAN AREASLIVING IN URBAN AREAS

The global urban population surpassed the rural one in 2009/2010. However, with this pace of growth it is likely that by 2050, the urban population will be double that of the rural and accounting for two thirds of global population


TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE

SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9 SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9 SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9 SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9

TRILLION BY 2025 TRILLION BY 2025 TRILLION BY 2025 TRILLION BY 2025 driven by Asia’s

fast urbanization- particularly China’s

Source - Upper Chart: “Capital Project and Infrastructure Spending: Outlook to 2025”, PWC, 2012Source - Lower Chart: National Bureau of Statistics China; World Bank Development Indicators

With the rapid urbanization, infrastructure spending is likely to go up as new cities are being built. In the past 20 years, China has built on its own a residential space that is equivalent between 1985 and 2011 to the land area of the Netherlands, or in 2011 alone, more residential floor space than the entire residential building stock in Australia. According to research presented by the Financial Times, China’s main demographic segment in demand of housing (25-49) will start declining soon just in time when a huge segment of new housing comes to market

Infrastructure Spending as % of Global Infrastructu re Spending(In %, 2008 – 2012)

23% 20% 20%

18%15% 13%

7%

6% 6%

38%45% 46%

7% 7% 7%

5%5%5%Middle East

North America

Europe

FSU/CEE

Asia-Pacific

South America

Africa

2012

3%

2010

2%

2008

2%Global Infrastructure Spending

USD9 Trillion

USD9 Trillion

USD 4 Trillion

USD 4 Trillion

20252012


THE INCREASE IN SLUMS THE INCREASE IN SLUMS THE INCREASE IN SLUMS THE INCREASE IN SLUMS

PARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREAS PARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREAS PARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREAS PARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREAS

AROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILL AROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILL AROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILL AROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILL

CAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBAN CAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBAN CAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBAN CAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBAN

POPULATIONPOPULATIONPOPULATIONPOPULATION

URBANIZATION

The proportion of the world’s urban population living in slums has fallen from nearly 40% a decade ago to less than a third today. But the absolute number of slum dwellers around the world is still rising. High population density around slums (and megacities) especially in poorer areas are a source of concern

Population Density by Country and Top 10 Cities (In People per Square Kilometer, 2011 and 2013)


THE GLOBAL POPULATION USES THE GLOBAL POPULATION USES THE GLOBAL POPULATION USES THE GLOBAL POPULATION USES

RESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANS RESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANS RESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANS RESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANS which puts further pressure on the global

ecology

The threshold of what Earth can sustainably provide was reached in 1976. Currently, we are using the equivalent of over 1.5 Earths—in other words, exceeding what nature can provide by more than half. It is predicted that if the world continues on that pace that we would need almost 3 earths by 2050. Which means it will take the earth 3 years then to regenerate what has been used in one year

Global Ecological Footprint(In Number of Earths Needed, 1961 - 2050)

Source- Global Footprint Network

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1961

1990

1970

1980

2050

2040

2030

2020

2007

2000

2010

Global Biocapacity=1 Earth

Above the World’s Biocapacity


THE RAPID GROWTH OF THE RAPID GROWTH OF THE RAPID GROWTH OF THE RAPID GROWTH OF

MEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJOR MEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJOR MEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJOR MEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJOR

WATER PLANNING AND WATER PLANNING AND WATER PLANNING AND WATER PLANNING AND

MANAGEMENT CHALLANGESMANAGEMENT CHALLANGESMANAGEMENT CHALLANGESMANAGEMENT CHALLANGES

The rise of megacities is not a new phenomenon as much of the developed cities such as London and New York started to grow in the nineteenth century. However, the rate of growth of megacities today is much faster than in the past and the rise of megacities has not been gradual like in the developed world. This puts further pressure on the availability and quality of water in many of the new developing world cities

Source: “Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2030”, Roland Berger, 2014

Challenges of Megacities in Water Supply(In % and In Relevant Metrics, Latest Available Data)


Note: (1) Water Scarcity refers to more than 40% of population living in water short areas while Water Stress refers to 20%-40% of population living in water short areasSource: “Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2030”, Roland Berger, 2014 (based on IFPRI and Veolia)

Water scarcity is on the rise with more than half of the global population set to be living in water stressed and water scarce areas. The nature of water insecurity varies by region where in the MENA region it is mostly driven by physical scarcity while in parts of Africa it is mostly economic. Irrespective of its nature, water security is likely to impact economic activity dramatically particularly given its prevalence across the world’s largest and most populous economies

BY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’S BY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’S BY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’S BY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’S

POPULATION WILL BE LIVING IN POPULATION WILL BE LIVING IN POPULATION WILL BE LIVING IN POPULATION WILL BE LIVING IN

WATER SCARCITYWATER SCARCITYWATER SCARCITYWATER SCARCITY putting further strain on

economic development

Population and GDP Generation in Water Stressed Are as(In % of Total, 2010 and 2050)

36%

52%

18%

16%

46%

32%

Water Stress(1)

Water Scarcity(1)

2050

2010

No Stress

22%

45%

19%

25%

59%

30%

2010

No Stress

Water Stress

Water Scarcity

2050

Share of People Living in Water Short Areas Share of GDP Generated in Water Short Regions


World Population, Individuals using the Internet an d Global Connected Devices Sold over Time(In Billions of People, 2005-2014 and In Billion Un its, 2008-2014)

PEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA AND PEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA AND PEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA AND PEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA AND

THINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEING THINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEING THINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEING THINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEING

CONNECTED CONNECTED CONNECTED CONNECTED making “the Internet of

things” a new revolutionizing force

The Internet has revolutionized the way people connect with each other driving growth in most economies. The ability to connect sensors to objects or things on the Internet, to extract and analyze growing amounts of data, and then to use that analysis in both automated and non-automated processes promises enormous potential for further economic growth

Note: (1) Date for 2014 Population estimates is based on August 2014 data as recorded by the Population Research BureauSources: World Bank Development Indicators; ITU Statistics; Statista; Population Research Bureau; “Connectivity in Consumer, Mobile & IT Market Tracker”, IHS, 2014

Internet Penetration (In %)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

7.5

6.0

4.5

3.0

1.5

0.0

Individuals Using the Internet

World Population

Global Connected Device Sales

6.2

7.2(1)

2.9

5.8

7.1

2.7

7.0

2.52.3

7.0

2.3

1.9

6.9

2.0

1.5

6.8

1.8

1.5

6.7

1.6

6.6

1.4

6.6

1.2

6.5

1.0

17.6 20.6 23.1 25.6 29.4 32.5 35.5 37.9 40.415.8


SMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTS SMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTS SMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTS SMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTS

WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE, WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE, WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE, WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE,

EDUCATION AND ENERGY EDUCATION AND ENERGY EDUCATION AND ENERGY EDUCATION AND ENERGY with focus on

eLearning and sustainability

Smart cities will create huge business opportunities for the development of infrastructure, education, healthcare, energy, security, mobility and buildings that are smart and sustainable. The value of this market will reach US$1.5 Trillion by 2020

Smart City Illustration

SMARTPHONES DETECTION

SMART ROADS

VEHICLE AUTO-DIAGNOSIS

TRAFFIC CONGESTION SMART LIGHTING

SMART GRID BUILDING MANAGER

THERMAL AND ELECTRICAL STORAGE

RENEWABLE ENERGY

SMART HOME

WASTE MANAGEMENT

Note: (1) Smart City Market Value is measured by the valuation of the smart city technologies and associated products and servicesSource- Upper Chart: “World’s Top Global Mega Trends to 2025 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures”, Frost & Sullivan, 2012 Source - Lower Chart: Literature Review Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

THE MAIN SHARING ECONOMY THE MAIN SHARING ECONOMY THE MAIN SHARING ECONOMY THE MAIN SHARING ECONOMY

SECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTER SECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTER SECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTER SECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTER

THAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONAL THAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONAL THAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONAL THAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONAL

RENTAL RENTAL RENTAL RENTAL

SECTORS SECTORS SECTORS SECTORS particularly car and house rental

Sharing economy businesses based on a “peer-to-peer” (P2P) model are increasingly replacing traditional markets, with top performers attracting subscribers and funding at exponential rates.-thus taking away business from traditional models as well as creating new business. While traditional rental industries are unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future, their growth will be relatively sluggish – for example, while the car rental market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2% through 2025, the car sharing market will grow over 11 times faster

Leading Sharing Economy Enterprises Impacting Tradi tional Business(All Statistics Latest Available, 2014)

Source – Top Chart: “The Sharing Economy: Sizing the Revenue Opportunity,” PwC, 2014Sources – Bottom Chart: Company websites, Various

Spinlister100+ countries

(2012)

Kickstarter+US$ 1.7 billion

pledges(Latest Available

Data)

DogVacay+20,000 listed pet

sitters(2011)

Uber 260 cities Served(2010)

Vinted+14 million clothes

listings(2008)

Airbnb+37 million

nights stayed (2008)

TaskRabbit1.25 million joiners

2013 (2008)

LiquidSpace+16,000 user companies

(2010)

Elance2.5 million employments

(1999)

RelayRides+2,300 cities

served (2010)

Netflix57.4 million subscribers

(1997)

Streetbank+61,700 things

shared(2010)

Skillshare+1,000 classes

(2010)

xx(xx)

CompanyYear Founded


Cities of the Future: Crossing Boundaries

social and environmental

Left and centre images: www.kateraworth.com / doughnuteconomics.org

mindsets& behaviors

geopolitical & normative

A safe and

just space

for

humanity

www.kateraworth.com / doughnuteconomics.org

www.kateraworth.com / doughnuteconomics.org

Presentations & Public Speaking

Shine, clare media academy sustainability presentation shine (21 july 2015)