Risk studies using OpenQuake-engineCatalina Yepes Estrada, Vitor Silva, Helen Crowley

GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy

Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine

an Open Source Software for Seismic Risk Assessment

Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine

Free, publically available and open-source Combines hazard and risk calculations

Scenario and probabilistic seismic hazard and risk

Allows calculations at many scales Runs on single laptop as well as on a cloud

Considers a wide spectrum of uncertainties

Different types of assets can be considered

Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine

Scenario risk

Scenario damage

Benefit-cost ratio

Probabilistic event-based risk

Classical PSHA based risk

Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine

Scenario risk

Scenario damage

Benefit-cost ratio

Probabilistic event-based risk

Classical PSHA based risk

Median ground motion field Exposure model Vulnerability functions

Scenario Risk Calculator

Mean loss mapLoss statistics

Scenario Risk Calculator

Ground motion fields Exposure model Vulnerability functions

Scenario Risk - Pisco Mw 8.0 (Peru, August 2007)

Scenario Risk - Pisco Mw 8.0 (Peru, August 2007)

Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine

Scenario risk

Scenario damage

Benefit-cost ratio

Probabilistic event-based risk

Classical PSHA based risk

Damage mapDamage Distribution

Scenario Damage Calculator

Ground motion fields Exposure model Fragility functions

Scenario Damage Calculator

Distribution of damage per building typology

Scenario Damage Calculator

Distribution of damage per building typology (percentage of total exposed buildings )

Scenario Damage Calculator

Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine

Scenario risk

Scenario damage

Benefit-cost ratio

Probabilistic event-based risk

Classical PSHA based risk

Sets of hazard curves Exposure model Vulnerability functions

Classical PSHA-based Calculator

Loss curves Loss maps

Classical PSHA based risk calculator

Loss exceedance curvefor each asset in the exposed portfolio

Economic loss map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine

Scenario risk

Scenario damage

Benefit-cost ratio

Probabilistic event-based risk

Classical PSHA based risk

Sets ground motion fields Exposure model Vulnerability functions

Probabilistic Event-based Risk Calculator

Loss curves Loss maps

Probabilistic event-based risk calculator

Risk assessment for downtown Pavia (Italy)

• 1255 building

• Soil effects Vs30

• 100.000 stochastic event sets

• 1 Year investigation time

Probabilistic event-based risk calculator

Loss map 2%, 10% and 50% Probability of Exceedance in 50 years < 100€

140€ - 190€

300€ - 400€

> 600€

AAL 4.8 M€

0.6% total replacement cost

Aggregated loss curve

Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine

Scenario risk

Scenario damage

Benefit-cost ratio

Probabilistic event-based risk

Classical PSHA based risk

Benefit-cost ratio calculator

EAL-C EAL-R0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

Ave

rage

exp

ecte

d an

nual

loss

(dol

-la

rs)

Loss exceedance curve

r inflation rate

t life expectancy

Original vulnerability model Retrofitted vulnerability model

Benefit-cost ratio calculator

Benefit-cost ratio calculator

It is a decision-support tool that helps to understand whether retrofitting interventions are justifiable from an economical perspective

EAL-C EAL-R0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

Ave

rage

exp

ecte

d an

nual

loss

(dol

-la

rs)

Loss exceedance curve

r inflation rate

t life expectancy

Benefit/cost ratio, AAL(original) and AAL(retrofitted).

Benefit-cost ratio calculator

Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine

Scenario Risk Calculator

Scenario Damage Assessment CalculatorClassical PSHA-based Risk Calculator

Benefit-cost Ratio Calculator

Probabilistic Event-based Risk Calculator

Improved Performance

Extended data model

Insured lossesFixed bugs

QA tests

Beta distributions

Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine

Thank you!

Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org