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THREE QUESTIONS
• How are the impacts of both non-communicable and infectious diseases exacerbated by environmental factors?
• How will the globalisation of environmental and health risks affect future resilience structures?
• What are the likely implications of increased numbers of displaced persons & refugees?
THREE QUESTIONS
• How are the impacts of both non-communicable and infectious diseases exacerbated by environmental factors?
• How will the globalisation of environmental and health risks affect future resilience structures?
• What are the likely implications of increased numbers of displaced persons & refugees?
FISH154 billion kg annually
18.8kg per capita
Fish
use
Food use
(kg/capita)
CROPS2.25 trillion kg/year
CATTLE46.6 kg per person
use
(billion
kg)
• 1 kg of wheat needs 1350 litres of water.
• 1 kg of rice needs 3000 litres of water.
• 15,000 litres of water / kg meat.
MORE WATER
• CHINA: Hai river supplemented by aquifer 40 trillion litres/y (40
billion kg grain feeding 120m people)
• Iran: overpump 5 billion tonnes water/year (1/3 annual grain
harvest)
• North Gujarat: water table falling 6m/year
• Colorado River Basin lost 65 cubic kilometers (15.6 cubic miles)
of water from 2004 to 2013
Since 1970, we have lost:
• 55% of worlds animals 83% of Latin American animals
LESS LIFE
WWF/ IoZ/ ZSL May 2014 LIVING PLANET INDEXAbundance of 555 terrestrial species, 323 freshwater species, and 267 marine species
around the world
• 76% of freshwater species
• 39% or all marine life
Earth is gaining energy: 1.6 W/m2
20x human energy use.
HEAT
5/sec(285 per minute = 400,000 a day = 146 million/ year)
HEALTH IMPACTSRespiratory disease
Loss of crops
Ground level ozone increase
Pollen allergenicity and burden
Cardiovascular disease
Mental Health Impacts
StarvationDrought
Reduced Physical Work Capacity
Ecosystem CollapseFires
Heatwaves
Vector-borne diseasesBacterial diseases
High Rainfall
Events
Poverty
Algal blooms
Sea level rise
Mass Migration
WARDiarrhoea
Chemical poisoning
Reduced Physical Work Capacity
Flooding
Loss of Habitation
“..a 4 degrees C future is incompatible with an
organised global community, is likely to be beyond
“adaptation,”… and has a high probability of not being stable (i.e., 4 degrees C would be an interim
Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new
world Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 13 January 2011
stable (i.e., 4 degrees C would be an interim
temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium
level).”
• Navy Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III, who leads the U.S. Pacific Command: global warming is "the most likely thing ... [to] cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about."
• Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen: “Climate change’s potential impacts are sobering and far-reaching… “Scarcity of water, food and space could create “Scarcity of water, food and space could create not only a humanitarian crisis, but create conditions that could lead to failed states, instability and, potentially, radicalization.”
THREE QUESTIONS
• How are the impacts of both non-communicable and infectious diseases exacerbated by environmental factors?
• How will the globalisation of environmental and health risks affect future resilience structures?
• What are the likely implications of increased numbers of displaced persons & refugees?
IS ADAPTATION POSSIBLE?
HEATWAVESSummer temperatures >40oC
• Heat ‘hotels’:– How Predict? Alert? Service? Fund?
• How get people there?– Roads already ‘regularly’ beyond softening temp of 50oC
– UK rail is stressed to only 27oC
MAINTAIN OUR HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE AT TIME OF
• Economic pressures (existing)
• New economic pressures (climate)
• Climate-driven increases in demand• Climate-driven increases in demand– Resp
– CVS
– Bacterial
– Mental
– Migrants