URBANISATION AND URBAN CHANGEpositioning Santiago de Chile

Re-evolucion Urbana, International ConferenceSantiago, 08 October 2014

Philipp Rode, LSE Cities / Urban Age ProgrammeLondon School of Economics and Political Science

GLOBAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

0.5%of the earth’s surface is urbanised

54%of the world’s population is urban (2014)

80%of global economic outputcomes from urban areas

Source: UN DESA 2014

URBAN POPULATION SHARE IN SELECTED WORLD REGIONS, 1950-2050

SOUTH AMERICA | CHILE 89% URBAN

URBAN POPULATION SHARE BY SETTLEMENT SIZESource: UN DESA 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

Cumulative contribution to global GDP of cities above 0.5 million

Source: LSE Cities and Oxford Economics 2014

LARGE CITIES GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTPUT SHARE (2012)

69 largest cities =30% of global GDP

Santiago, #69

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Agriculture Industry Transport,Storage, Info,

Comms

F&BS Consumerservices

Public services

Santiago GVA by sector

20122030

Income of Santiago in 2012 and 2030 (measured as Gross Value Added)SANTIAGO INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION BY OUTPUT

Source: LSE Cities and Oxford Economics 2014

mill

ion

US$

RESIDENTSPEAK 27,100 pp/km2

EMPLOYMENTPEAK 141,600 jobs/km2

LONDON | LOCATION OF WORKING AND LIVING

SANTIAGO SHANGHAI

URBAN DENSITY | RESIDENTIAL

SÃO PAULO NEW YORK

MUMBAI

LONDON

6.5mMetro Population

51,800Max. Density [pers./sqkm]

SANTIAGO METRO REGION - DENSITY

MUMBAI METRO REGION - DENSITY

19.3mMetro Population

25,316 Avg. density central area of 10 km radius [pers./sqkm]

121,312Max. Density [pers./sqkm]

LONDON METRO REGION - DENSITY

19.0mMetro Population

8,326Avg. density central area of 10 km radius [pers./sqkm]

27,100Max. Density [pers./sqkm]

VERTICALISATION

In Shanghai the number of 8 storey building or higher increased from 121 in 1980 to 10,045 in 2005

HORIZONTAL EXPANSION - URBAN SPRAWL

The built-up land in Mexico City grew from 1980 to 2000 by more than 30%

3x increaseof urban land from 2000 to 2030 (Seto et al 2012)

US$400 billion per yearthe external costs of sprawl in the United States

of global energy-related carbon emissions come from urban areas

to 80% of energy consumption in urban areas

DISTRIBUTION OF THE LEAST EDUCATED

SAO PAULO RIO DE JANEIRO BUENOS AIRES

BOGOTA LIMA

SOCIAL SEGREGATION IN SANTIAGOSource: Universidad Adolfo Ibanez, Inteligencia Territorial 2014

Cities

URBAN FORM AND INFRASTRUCTURE: LOCKING IN MOBILITY PATTERNSSource: LSE Cities 2014

ISTANBULSÃO PAULO

MUMBAI

LONDON

HONG KONG

93% 95%

71% 86% 63%

THE SHARE OF PUBLIC AND NON-MOTORISED TRAVEL

73%

SANTIAGO

CONGESTION: LOSS OF PRODUCTIVITY IN URBAN AREASUp to 15% of GDP in Beijing (Creutzig and He 2009); Buenos Aires 3.4%, Mexico City 2.6% and Dakar 3.4% (World Bank 2002)

LOCAL AIR POLLUTIONFor 311 cities, 86% exceed WHO air quality guidelines equating to 730,000 premature deaths

compact, connected, coordinated urban growth, built around mass public transport, can create cities that are economically dynamic, healthier, and that have lower emissions.

GOVERNING CITIES – THE METROPOLITAN DILEMMA

LONDON NEW YORK MUMBAI

SHANGHAI ISTANBUL SAO PAULO

WHO IS LEADING KEY POLICY SECTORS?

0

1

2

2

2

4

2

2

3

4

3

8

10

13

13

18

17

14

25

25

22

32

2

1

2

3

4

1

2

6

2

2

4

16

14

8

11

6

11

5

16

8

2

9

19

25

23

18

26

15

11

10

14

13

8

2

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

1

1

0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Health

Education

Economic development

Environment

Policing and security

Social services

Housing

Urban transport

Utilities

Culture

Spatial planning

below city city metropolitan state national other

Level of influence of different tiers of government