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Predicting Outcomes From Conversational Dynamics Within the First 5 minutes
Thin Slices
Curhan & Pentland
Power of First ImpressionsThin Slices
Evidence that conversational dynamics might play a critical role in negotiation
Formal Microanalyses of highly specific speech features
Predictive validity of computers
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1 First impression based on 30sec and 6sec of silent video
Interviewer’s impressions are formed in the early stages of the interview and tend to persist throughout the interaction
Degree to which 4 conventional dynamics occurring within the 1st 5min of a two-party, simulated employment negotiation predict the outcomes of that negotiation
Behavioral outcome of a Transactional Negotiation
Have been shown to predict a broad range of consequences
Key to success lies in understanding social signaling, often nonverbal in nature
Thin Slices of behavioral data
Negotiation context, Pentland hopes to provide a useful diagnostic instrument that might facilitate future research on negotiation processes as well as applications for training and evaluating negotiators.
Computer Algorithms- Thin Slice
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Nonlinguistic social signals, body language, facial expressions, & tone of voice are as important as linguistic content in predicting behavioral outcomes
Which social signals participants might use to judge outcomes?
That have already been suggested in the literature with behavioral outcomes, to determine which signals (if any) have predictive power similar to that of human judges.
Compare candidate signal features
3How these predictive social signals relate to existing theories of mental function and social interaction.
Examine
Social Signaling and Conversational
Dynamics2
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Curhan & Pentland Research
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Pentland’ s Four Measures of vocal quality and conversational interaction that could serve as predictive social signals
An individual’s activity level during the first 5 min of the negotiation will be positively correlated with his or her own individual outcome.
Hypothesis
Time a person speak. Studies’ involving competitive settings, speaking time was positively correlated with dominance over the outcome
Activity
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Pentland’ s Four Measures of vocal quality and conversational interaction that could serve as predictive social signals
An individual’s level of engagement during the first 5 min of the negotiation will be positively correlated with his or her own individual outcome.
Hypothesis
Measured by the influence that one person has on the other’s conversational turn taking. (Markov process).
One sided engagement occurs when one person is energetically questioning another and the other begins speaking only after the questioner ceases speaking.
Engagement
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Pentland’ s Four Measures of vocal quality and conversational interaction that could serve as predictive social signals
An individual’s level of emphasis during the first 5 min of the negotiation will be positively correlated with his or her own individual outcome but positively correlated with the counterpart’s individual outcome.
Hypothesis
Measured by variation in speech prosody, specifically, variations in pitch and volume.
Pentland & Curhan emphasis measure may be an indication of the importance a speaker attaches to the interaction.
Emphasis
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Pentland’ s Four Measures of vocal quality and conversational interaction that could serve as predictive social signals
Hypothesis: an individual’s freq. of mirroring during the first 5 min of the negotiation will be positively correlated with his or her own individual outcome.
Hypothesis
Behavior of one individual is mimicked or mirrored by another, this could signal empathy, which has shown to positively influence the smoothness of an interaction as well as mutual liking.
Mirroring
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Method
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Hypothesis: An individual’s activity level during the first 5 min of the negotiation will be positively correlated with his or her own individual outcome..
Activity-time a person speak. Studies’ involving competitive settings, speaking time was positively correlated with dominance over the outcome.
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Engagement- measured by the influence that one person has on the other’s conversational turn taking. (Markov process). One sided engagement occurs when one person is energetically questioning another and the other begins speaking only after the questioner ceases speaking.
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Technology can be used to give real time feedback to diagnose and improve individual negotiation skills
Microcoding using a computer it may ensure high test-retest reliability. Because computer measures objective, physical property of the audio signal, not subjective or psychological properties of the measures are 100% consistent.
Present study uses computer algorithms to identified specific features of thin slices that correlated with subsequent behavioral outcomes
Pros
Conclusion
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Cons
No real evidence to prove the success of technology based on the algorithms used in this research is a better predictor of thin slice outcome then human judge predictors
Research increase the original concept of Thin Slice 30sec and 6sec to 5min first impression to predict outcome
For more complicated speech features, the link between specific measures and their respective conversational dynamics is more tenuous
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Notwithstanding this potential shortcoming, one advantage of microcoding using a computer is that it ensures high test-retest reliability.
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Four Measures of vocal quality and conversational interaction that could serve as predictive social signals
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EngagementActivity
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time a person speak. Studies’ involving competitive settings, speaking time was positively correlated with dominance over the outcome.o Hypothesis: An individual’s activity level during the first 5 min of the negotiation will be positively correlated with his or her own individual outcome.
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Going beyond Mining Social Networks
Wearable Networks
The belief that by adding mathematical understanding of behavior based on the feature analysis, will enhance distance-separated team work behavior, collaboration, decision-making and the sharing of social experiences.
GRS
Group Network
Social Intelligence
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