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11th Session of the NORTH ATLANTIC SEAFOOD FORUM MARCH 1–3, 2016BERGEN, NORWAY
1
Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General
Fisheries and Aquaculture DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations
GLOBAL POLICY AND TRADE SESSION: Outlook for world seafood trade 2030
prospects and challenges
Total Landings of Marine Fisheries
2
Marine Fish Landings by Continent
19501952
19541956
19581960
19621964
19661968
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania
3
Fish Landings: Developed vs Developing Nations
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0e+0
01e+
072e
+073e+
074e
+075e+
076e
+07
yrs
Land
ings
(t)
4
Global Trend in the State of World Marine Fish Stocks, 1974-2011
5
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0Aquaculture for human consumptionCapture for human consumptionNon-food usesPer capita food fish supply
Production (million tonnes live weight) Per capita yearly supply (kg)
6
Americas, Europe, Africa, and Oceania Combined. 9%
[Million Tonnes]
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
China61%
Asia91%
Aquaculture vs. Capture Fisheries Production
7
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
160000000
0
5
10
15
20
25
World seafood exports Linear (World seafood exports)World seafood consumption Linear (World seafood consumption)
Kg p
er c
apita
per
yea
r
Globalization in a graph: world seafood exports vs world average seafood consumption 1976 to 2014
8
2012 2013 20140
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
35.2%
35.4%
35.6%
35.8%
36.0%
36.2%
36.4%
36.6%
36.8%
37.0%
Production volume Trade volume Proportion of production traded
Mill
ion
tonn
es
Perc
enta
ge tr
aded
Production vs trade – last three years
9
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
Developed ImportDeveloping Import
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
80000000
90000000
Developed ExportDeveloping Export
World seafood trade: developed vs developing
10
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14Jan-15
0
50
100
150
200
250
Fish Meat (Terrestrial)
Terrestrial meat price index vs. Fish price index Jan 2000 – Jan 2015
11
Conclusion from this analyzes is:
• Total production has stabilized over the last 20 years.
• Capture fisheries landings have shifted from developed countries to developing countries.
• Degree of overfishing has been stabilizing over the last 20 years but is still unacceptable.
• Aquaculture is overtaking capture fisheries in production for human consumption.
• Great expansion in trade, particularly from developing countries to developed countries, is slowing down.
12
Conclusion from this analyzes is:
A. Center of gravity for fish production has moved from developed countries to developing countries, where small scale
fisheries will be extremely important.
B. Center of gravity has moved from capture fisheries to aquaculture, particularly aquaculture in Asia.
13
Will there be any international trade in fish?
1. Political reasons?
The general political environment is favorable.
Something dramatic has to happen to change that.
2. What about demand?
14
• .
OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2022)
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 (Table A.26.2). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2010-12 average.Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red.
WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections
Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red
Country/
region
Fish Demand (2030) Total
fish prod. (2012,
mil. tonne)
S-D gap2030
(col. 4 minus col. 3)
kg/cap.Total (mil. tonne
)
WORLD
29.1 261.2
156.5 -104.7
S.S. Africa
10.8 15.1
6.9 -8.2
L.A. & C.
12.2 18.3
14.8 -3.4
N. Africa
12.9 3.7
2.8 -0.8
Europe
27.3 23.4
16.0 -7.4
N. America
29.8 12.9
6.7 -6.1
Oceania
31.9 1.8
1.4 -0.3
Asia
37.0 186.3
107.8 -78.5
Future fish supply and demand projections
FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections
Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results)Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth. 2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged
15
What about environmental reasons?
a. Climate change: Video presentation delivered on the on the occasion of the Workshop on the Climate Change’s Impact held in Boracay Islands, Philippines 9th May 2015:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ-fS2TZX_Y
b. We have done relatively well in the last 20 years post CCRF. The situation is stable in fisheries but the next 20 years may be different, continued challenge.
c. Aquaculture has a very light ecological foot print compared to terrestrial animal protein production systems. However question marks around animal protein and trophic levels. 16
17
Main Challenges There are many challenges some of which have been
mentioned
They fall into two categories:
1. Refining the management and governance of fisheries in developed and middle income-countries.
2. Refining the certification/traceability systems to benefit a broader group of producers.
18
Main Challenges
However, there are two main fundamental major challenges, both in
the shadow of climate change:
• Aquaculture• Small Scale Fisheries
• Decent Work19
20
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING