The Secret Sauce of the Obama Campaign:What Enterprises Can Learn from Obama2012’s Big

Data

Amelia Showalter@ameliashowalter

NASSCOM Big Data& Analytics

June 2015

Maybe you heard about Obama’s data…

Obama 2012: A leap forward Better technology

◦ Apps for social sharing, polling place lookup, phone banking, volunteer mobilization, vote tracking, election day rapid response

◦ Fully integrated databases linking all data known about each voter and supporter

Bigger and better data◦ Sophisticated micro-targeting program, modeling voter propensities◦ More polling, and better predictions◦ Smarter new methods of targeting ads on television◦ Data-driven digital program, in which everything was A/B tested

The real reason “Big Data” helped us win Data allowed us to create personal connections

◦ Better listening to our audience◦ Personalizing online communications◦ Fostering better, more human conversation between

volunteers and voters

It’s not the size of your database, it’s how you use it

Online data and A/B testing

A/B testing: Obama 2012 Constantly looking for improvements, large or small, in every aspect of our digital operation

Email testing: test many flavors!

Email testing: subject lines version Subject line v1s1 Heyv1s2 Two things:v1s3 Your turnv2s1 Heyv2s2 My opponentv2s3 You decidev3s1 Heyv3s2 Last nightv3s3 Stand with me todayv4s1 Heyv4s2 This is my last campaignv4s3 [NAME]v5s1 Hey

v5s2There won't be many more of these deadlines

v5s3 What you saw this weekv6s1 Heyv6s2 Let's win.v6s3 Midnight deadline

Test sends

6 drafts x 3 subject lines=

18 possible versions

Email testing: getting results version Subject line donors moneyv1s1 Hey 263 $17,646v1s2 Two things: 268 $18,830v1s3 Your turn 276 $22,380v2s1 Hey 300 $17,644v2s2 My opponent 246 $13,795v2s3 You decide 222 $27,185v3s1 Hey 370 $29,976v3s2 Last night 307 $16,945v3s3 Stand with me today 381 $25,881v4s1 Hey 444 $25,643v4s2 This is my last campaign 369 $24,759v4s3 [NAME] 514 $34,308v5s1 Hey 353 $22,190

v5s2There won't be many more of these deadlines 273 $22,405

v5s3 What you saw this week 263 $21,014v6s1 Hey 363 $25,689v6s2 Let's win. 237 $17,154v6s3 Midnight deadline 352 $23,244

ACTUAL ($3.7m)

IF SENDING AVG

IF SENDING WORST

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4Full send (in millions)

$2.2 million additional revenue from sending best draft vs. worst, or $1.5 million additional from sending best vs. average

Test sends

Testing = listening Gut instinct and “expert opinions” are no substitute for listening to your audience◦ Within Obama campaign headquarters we had this thing called the

Email Derby…◦ Even the experts can’t reliably predict the most effective messages

Testing helped identify the messages that resonated with our audience – usually, the most personal messages

Keep things short and personal In general, we founds shorter emails and subject lines did best, especially when they sounded like something a real person would write (and especially if that person was the President!)◦ Classic example: “Hey”

When we put a mild curse word into a subject line, it usually won◦ “Hell yes, I like Obamacare”◦ “Let’s win the damn election”◦ “Pretty damn cool”

Optimization through personalization Adding “drop-in sentences” that reference people’s past behavior can increase conversion rates

Example: asking recent donors for more money

…it's going to take a lot more of us to match them.

You stepped up recently to help out -- thank you. We all need to dig a little deeper if we're going to win, so I'm asking you to pitch in again. Will you donate $25 or more today?

…it's going to take a lot more of us to match them.

Will you donate $25 or more today?

Optimization through personalization The added sentence referencing the user’s previous prior donation doubled the re-donation rate◦ Confirmed in several similar experiments and in different contexts,

though the effect sizes were usually smaller◦ Example: gay marriage email, personalized by previous support◦ More like having a real-life dialogue

Behavioral data was MUCH more useful than demographic data

Optimization through personalization

Results of the online campaign Campaign raised over one billion dollars

◦ Raised over half a billion dollars online◦ Over 4 million Americans donated

Recruited tens of thousands of volunteers,publicized thousands of events and rallies

Did I mention raising >$500 million online?◦ Conservatively, testing probably resulted in ~$200 million in additional revenue

Offline data and modeling

Using data to win: the offline campaign Digital analytics helped us fund the campaign

◦ The people we communicated with online were mostly our supporters◦ Though, there was some voter contact online (usually through ads)

Persuading voters mostly happened through non-digital channels◦ Television◦ Phone calls◦ Door knocking

Micro-targeting: modeling each voter US political parties own “enhanced voter files”

◦ Each voter’s name, address, age, gender, and vote history◦ Matched information: Census data, commercial data, family status, et cetera◦ Micro-targeting models

The modeling process◦ Conduct massive poll (5,000-10,000 people)◦ Ask questions about specific issues or candidates◦ Use voter file data to make a predictive model, apply it to population

Models in practice: fostering personal conversations between neighbors

Models allowed our on-the-ground voter contact to be data-driven

As campaign volunteers made phone calls and knocked on doors, they had information – including modeling – about each voter they spoke with.◦ Who is likely to be undecided?◦ Who is likely to care about specific issues?◦ Who is likely (or unlikely) to vote at all?

Knowing this information can make the interaction more meaningful

Data-driven conversationsFrom 2012 Campaign Manager Jim Messina:

“My favorite story is from a volunteer in Wisconsin 10 days out [from Election Day]. She was knocking on doors on one side of the street and the Romney campaign was knocking on doors on the other side of the street…”

Data-driven conversations“… [The Obama volunteer] was asked to hit two doors. One was an undecided voter and she knew exactly what to say. The other was an absentee ballot and she was told to make sure they filled it out and returned it. On the other side of the street, the Romney campaign was knocking on every single door. Most of the people weren’t home, and most of the people that were home were already supporting Barack Obama. She looked at me and said, ‘You’re using my time wisely.’ That’s what data can do.”

- Obama 2012 Campaign Manager Jim Messina

“Big Data” should aid human conversation We owe our victory to those interactions between volunteers and undecided voters

Data and analytics are there to enhance the conversation

On the digital side, we used Big Data to make online interactions feel a little more like real, offline conversations

Lessons for enterprises Big Data is not the goal, it’s a tool to facilitate dialogue

◦ Remember the people underneath the data

Don’t rely on gut instinct – run a test!◦ If you listen to your audience, you will win

Opportunities for enterprises Politics and social movements are huge opportunities for the data and technology industries◦ US political analytics industry growing◦ Other countries are learning from the

U.S. example

Opportunities for enterprises Supply better data

◦ In the US and everywhere else, good models require good data

Supply the first voter file◦ In countries where voter files are not common, the first parties or

social advocacy organizations to get them will have a huge advantage

Thank you!

Amelia Showalter@ameliashowalter

NASSCOM Big Data& Analytics

June 2015