PowerPoint Presentation

By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.

May 2nd, 2016

The Economist Who Loved MeOn Behalf ofThe Maryland Economic Development Association

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The World is Not (Growing) Enough*1999: Pierce Brosnan; Sophie Marceau

(1999)2

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2016 ProjectedNotes: 1. For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with fiscal year 2011/12 as a base year. 2. For World Output, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 90 percent of annual world output at purchasing-power-parity weights. For Emerging Market and Developing Economies, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of annual emerging market and developing economies output at purchasing-power-parity weights. 2016 Proj. Global Output Growth: 3.2%Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2016.

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NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. DollarsMarch 2001 through March 2016Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm4

World Oil Demand Growth2007Q1 through 2016Q1*Source: The World Bank; International Energy Agency

*2016Q1 is an estimate

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/schedule/5

MoneypennyMetal Price IndicesMarch 2007 through March 2016Source: The World BankUS$ NominalBase metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc.Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.

http://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets6

Source: Quandl.com Baltic Dry IndexApril 2009 through April 2016The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.

https://www.quandl.com/data/LLOYDS/BDI-Baltic-Dry-IndexBaltic Dry Index. Source: Lloyd's List. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. It is created by the London Baltic Exchange based on daily assessments from a panel of shipbrokers. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax. Capesize carriers are the largest ships with a capacity greater than 150,000 DWT. Panamax refers to the maximum size allowed for ships travelling through the Panama Canal, typically 65,000 - 80,000 DWT. The Supramax Index covers carriers with a capacity of 50,000 - 60,000 DWT. 7

Skyfall - BRAZIL

Consumer price index increased 10.7 percent in 2015, despite ongoing economic contraction;Highest inflation rate in more than a decade;Increases in key categories:Food (12.3%)Transportation prices (10.2%)Housing related costs (18.3%)

Brazils real down 33 percent compared to the U.S. dollar by end of 2015.Standard & Poors and Fitch Ratings downgraded sovereign debt to junk statusBoletin Focus, a weekly survey of 100 private financial analysts, predicts Brazils economy will contract by another 3 percent this year.

Source: Currency Exchange, Wall Street Journal*2012: Daniel Craig, Berenice Marlohe

CPI: http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-inflation-reaches-highest-level-in-13-years-1452252895

Boletin Focus: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2016/01/04/brazil-economy-to-contract-nearly-3-pct-in-2016-analysts-say/

Real: http://qz.com/575530/the-real-is-slumping-hard-as-brazils-economy-collapses/USD per 1 BRLJanuary 1st 2015 v. January 1st 2016: -32.9% (0.37629 to 0.25254)http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=BRL&to=USD&view=1Y

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A View to a Kill - RUSSIACollapse in oil prices and economic sanctions (and counter sanctions) related to Ukraine have hurt Russian economic growth;Economy contracted about 4 percent in 2015;World Bank: Russia will remain in recession in 2016;

Russias ruble down 20 percent compared to U.S. dollar by end of 2015;Continued decline in investment expected;Budget expenditures will drop 3 to 5 percent in 2016.

Source: Currency Exchange, CNBC*1985: Roger Moore, Tanya Roberts

http://thumbnails.cnbc.com/VCPS/Y2013/M05D31/3000171284/6ED2-CB-DavidBarse0531.jpg

Ruble:USD per 1 RUBJanuary 1st 2015 v. January 1st 2016: -20.4% (0.01721 to 0.0137)http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=2Y9

I Expect You to Grow - CHINAGrowth at slowest pace in 2 decades;World Bank predicts 6.7% economic growth for 2016 (down from 7.0% in June);George Soros: China has a major adjustment problem on its hands;

Stock values fell 12 percent during first week of 2016 trading;Government attempts to stabilize economy only made investors even more wary;Circuit breaker system shuts down trading when losses hit a certain level;Too restrictive and causes panic selling once breakers are turned off.

Source: Currency Exchange, CNN Money*(1964) Goldfinger, misquote from Auric Goldfinger, Sean Connery, Honor Blackman

Yuan: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=USD&view=2Y#

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/world-bank-sees-global-growth-sputtering-along-amid-china-slump-ij392sat

http://www.dw.com/en/the-good-and-bad-of-chinas-economy-in-2015/a-18918678

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chaos-in-chinese-stock-market-sends-economic-waves-around-the-world/2016/01/07/998c58ec-b566-11e5-a842-0feb51d1d124_story.html

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/150707143539-china-stocks-selloff-1024x576.jpg10

Quantum of Solace*2008: Daniel Craig; Olga Kurylenko

(1999)11

Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2016Q1*Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis*Advance (1st) Estimate

Q3 First Estimate Release: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm12

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2015Q2 2016Q1*2016Q1: +0.5%Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis*Advance (1st) Estimate

Table 1.1.2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product 13

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics March 2016: +215KNet Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSMarch 2002 through March 2016

May news release: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmUS Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001U.S. Unemployment Rate LNS14000000

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National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorMarch 2015 v. March 2016All told 2,802K Jobs gainedSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Maryland Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)March 2015 v. March 2016Absolute ChangeMD Total: +62.4K; +2.4%US Total (SA): +2,802K; +2.0%Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) seriesMD added 53,252 jobs between March 2015 and March 2016.

Series ID are in excel linked to chartMD Total Nonfarm: SMS24000000000000001US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001MD LAUS (SA): LASST24000000000000516

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)March 2015 v. March 2016Absolute ChangeBaltimore MSA Total: +35.5K; +2.6%MD Total (SA): +62.4K; +2.4%US Total (SA): +2,802K; +2.0%Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Series ID are in excel linked to chartBaltimore MSA Total Nonfarm: SMU24125800000000001 US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001

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Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)March 2015 v. March 2016Absolute ChangeDC MSA Total: +86.6K; +2.8%US Total (SA): +2,802K; +2.0%Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Series ID are in excel linked to chartDC MSA Total Nonfarm: SMU11479000000000001 US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES000000000118

Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) March 2015 v. March 2016 Percent ChangeRankState%RankState%RankState%1IDAHO3.618MICHIGAN2.333INDIANA1.32OREGON3.319ARKANSAS2.236ALABAMA1.22UTAH3.320KENTUCKY2.037MINNESOTA1.14TENNESSEE3.220NEW JERSEY2.038IOWA1.04WASHINGTON3.222MASSACHUSETTS1.838MAINE1.06ARIZONA3.122MISSISSIPPI1.838SOUTH DAKOTA1.06GEORGIA3.122OHIO1.841CONNECTICUT0.98FLORIDA2.922RHODE ISLAND1.841MISSOURI0.98HAWAII2.922WISCONSIN1.843MONTANA0.710COLORADO2.827NEBRASKA1.644NEW MEXICO0.310NEVADA2.827NEW HAMPSHIRE1.645KANSAS0.010VIRGINIA2.827TEXAS1.646OKLAHOMA-0.413SOUTH CAROLINA2.730NEW YORK1.447ALASKA-0.514CALIFORNIA2.630PENNSYLVANIA1.448LOUISIANA-0.714DELAWARE2.630VERMONT1.448WEST VIRGINIA-0.716NORTH CAROLINA2.533DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA1.350WYOMING-3.217MARYLAND2.433ILLINOIS1.351NORTH DAKOTA-4.5

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +2.0%

US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001

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Source: Moodys EconomyRecession Watchas of January 2016

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U.S. Unemployment Rate: 5.0%Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) March 2016Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsRankState%RankState%RankState%1SOUTH DAKOTA2.517TEXAS4.334CALIFORNIA5.42NEW HAMPSHIRE2.619DELAWARE4.434RHODE ISLAND5.43COLORADO2.919MASSACHUSETTS4.437GEORGIA5.54NEBRASKA3.019NEW JERSEY4.437NORTH CAROLINA5.55HAWAII3.119OKLAHOMA4.439KENTUCKY5.65NORTH DAKOTA3.123OREGON4.540CONNECTICUT5.77VERMONT3.323TENNESSEE4.540SOUTH CAROLINA5.78MAINE3.423WISCONSIN4.542NEVADA5.89UTAH3.526MARYLAND4.742WASHINGTON5.810MINNESOTA3.727MICHIGAN4.844LOUISIANA6.111IDAHO3.827NEW YORK4.845ALABAMA6.211IOWA3.829FLORIDA4.945NEW MEXICO6.213KANSAS3.929PENNSYLVANIA4.947MISSISSIPPI6.314ARKANSAS4.031INDIANA5.048DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA6.514VIRGINIA4.032OHIO5.148ILLINOIS6.516MISSOURI4.233WYOMING5.248WEST VIRGINIA6.517MONTANA4.334ARIZONA5.451ALASKA6.6

U.S. Unemployment Rate LNS14000000

LASST01000003LASST02000003LASST04000003LASST05000003LASST06000003LASST08000003LASST09000003LASST10000003LASST11000003LASST12000003LASST13000003LASST15000003LASST16000003LASST17000003LASST18000003LASST19000003LASST20000003LASST21000003LASST22000003LASST23000003LASST24000003LASST25000003LASST26000003LASST27000003LASST28000003LASST29000003LASST30000003LASST31000003LASST32000003LASST33000003LASST34000003LASST35000003LASST36000003LASST37000003LASST38000003LASST39000003LASST40000003LASST41000003LASST42000003LASST44000003LASST45000003LASST46000003LASST47000003LASST48000003LASST49000003LASST50000003LASST51000003LASST53000003LASST54000003LASST55000003LASST56000003

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Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)March 2016Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsRankMSAURRankMSAUR1Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area3.810Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area4.91San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area3.810Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area4.93Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA4.013New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.03Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area4.013Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area5.05Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area4.115Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.16Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area4.415St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area (1)5.17Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area4.517Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.28San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area4.718Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area5.69Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area4.819Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.810Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area4.920Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area6.6

1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.

Please make sure all unemployment rates have the same number of decimals (ex. 8.0 rather than just 8)http://www.bls.gov/lau/Tables: Unemployment Rates for Large Metropolitan Areas

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MD County Unemployment RatesMarch 2016Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsRankJurisdictionURRankJurisdictionUR1Howard County3.413Talbot County5.12Montgomery County3.514Kent County5.33Carroll County3.915Caroline County5.54Anne Arundel County4.116Cecil County5.64Calvert County4.117Washington County5.74Frederick County4.118Wicomico County6.87Queen Anne's County4.419Baltimore City7.18St. Mary's County4.520Garrett County7.29Charles County4.621Allegany County7.39Harford County4.622Dorchester County7.611Prince George's County4.823Somerset County8.212Baltimore County5.024Worcester County12.4

Please make sure all unemployment rates have the same number of decimals (ex. 8.0 rather than just 8)

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Personal Income Per Capita, by MD County, 2014Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Fastest/Slowest Growing MD MunicipalitiesPopulation Growth April 2010 July 2014Source: State Department of Planning, Maryland Data CenterTOP 20BOTTOM 20RankCity/PlaceCounty%RankCity/PlaceCounty%1Upper Marlboro townPrince George's County32.4%138Crisfield citySomerset County-2.1%2Leonardtown townSt. Mary's County19.3%139Henderson townCaroline County-2.1%3Gaithersburg cityMontgomery County11.6%140Loch Lynn Heights townGarrett County-2.2%4Rockville cityMontgomery County7.6%141Friendsville townGarrett County-2.2%5Emmitsburg townFrederick County7.5%142Chestertown townKent County-2.4%6Salisbury cityWicomico County7.3%143Greensboro townCaroline County-2.5%7Centreville townQueen Anne's County6.7%144Kitzmiller townGarrett County-2.5%8College Park cityPrince George's County6.1%145Deer Park townGarrett County-2.5%9Fruitland cityWicomico County5.8%146Federalsburg townCaroline County-2.6%10Takoma Park cityMontgomery County5.7%147Preston townCaroline County-2.8%11Poolesville townMontgomery County5.7%148Cumberland cityAllegany County-2.9%12Glen Echo townMontgomery County5.5%149Millington townKent County-3.0%13North Chevy Chase villageMontgomery County5.4%150Lonaconing townAllegany County-3.1%14Chevy Chase View townMontgomery County5.3%151Betterton townKent County-3.2%15Martin's Additions villageMontgomery County5.3%152Frostburg cityAllegany County-3.3%16Kensington townMontgomery County5.2%153Westernport townAllegany County-3.5%17Washington Grove townMontgomery County5.1%154Barton townAllegany County-3.7%18Somerset townMontgomery County5.1%155Midland townAllegany County-4.0%19Garrett Park townMontgomery County5.0%156Oxford townTalbot County-4.1%20Bowie cityPrince George's County4.9%157Trappe townTalbot County-4.4%

Source: Department of Planning, Maryland Data Center, (Table 4. Population estimates for Incorporated Places in Maryland Within County)25

License to Sell*License to Kill, 1989: Timothy Dalton; Carey Lowell

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15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates April 1995 through April 2016*Source: Freddie Mac*Week ending 4/28/2016

Weekly: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.htmlMonthly 30 yr: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htmMonthly 15 yr: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms15.htm27

Source: U.S. Census BureauU.S. Homeownership

http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/ http://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=HV&startYear=1956&endYear=2015&categories=RATE&dataType=RVR&geoLevel=US&adjusted=0&notAdjusted=1&errorData= 28

Source: U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Private New Multifamily ConstructionFebruary 1993 through February 2016

https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html29

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros February 2016, 12-Month Percentage ChangeSource: Standard & Poors

http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shillerThe S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average. Index levels are published with a two-month lag and are released at 9 am EST on the last Tuesday of every month. Index performance is based on non-seasonally adjusted data.

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Maryland Median Home Sale PricesMarch 2005 through March 2016March 2015 v. March 2016: +2.3%Source: Maryland Association of Realtors (MAR)

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Months of Inventory by Maryland CountyMarch 2016Source: Maryland Association of Realtors (MAR)Maryland: 4.4 Months

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Tomorrow Never Dies*1997: Pierce Brosnan; Michelle Yeoh; Teri Hatcher

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Sales Growth by Type of Business March 2015 v. March 2016*Source: U.S. Census Bureau*March 2016 advanced estimateTotal Retail Sales: +1.7% YOY

http://www.census.gov/retail/ Table 234

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through March 2016Source: Conference Board

*MUST START AT AUGUST 2007https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at:www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfmor contact us at:indicators@conference-board.org

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes was changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes.December Press Release:https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/PressPDF_5370_1422007649.pdfhttps://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/TechnicalPDF_5370_1422007211.pdf

For more information, please visit our website at:www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfmor contact us atindicators@conference-board.orghttp://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/PressPDF_5347_1418896809.pdf35

Dr. KnowNot a Happy New Year so far. Everyone knows about China, etc. and N.Korea, but we have problems right here;

Corporate profit margins are slipping and interest rates are likely on the rise does not sound like a great recipe for stock prices or for corporate investment;

Only the consumer is really contributing significantly to growth, with state and local government spending playing a supporting role;Job growth should remain decent in the near-term we ended 2015 with a near-record in total job openings;

Maryland is in better shape we dont produce oil or natural gas, we dont export very much, cyber-security is a legitimate growth industry, and a new Speaker of the House should be able to avert near-term federal fiscal catastrophe; and

We may be transitioning very quickly from the mid-cycle stage of the recovery to the late-stage: 2017-18 outlook very murky.

*1962: Sean Connery; Ursula Andress

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