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FLOOD BY DESIGN: CHALLENGES WITH
GOVERNANCE OF DISASTER RISK IN LIGURIA, ITALY
Massimo Lanfranco @EC-JRC
TIEMS International Italy Conference, Rome 2015
Session 10New approaches and methods for Emergency Management
Disaster risk
reduction governance framework
Science
The physical environment
Agenda
Smart cities
The science-policy
interface
Physical environment
LIGURIA
LIGURIAhttp://
geoportale.regione.liguria.it/
30 km
LIGURIA09 October 2014
H 22:30H 17:30
Climate change
DOES IT MATTERS?
NOT FOR FLOODS!
Temperature
Sea temperature
IT MATTERS!
Climate change
A new problem?
Annual rain
Annual rain – average 1961-2010 (50 years)
From Atlante Climatico della Liguria – ARPAL (2013)
Climate change
Rain change
Annual rainchange 1981-2010 (last 30 years) compared to 1961-1990 (first 30 years)
From Atlante Climatico della Liguria – ARPAL (2013)
Climate change
Rain change
Spring
Summer
Winter
1981-2010 1961-1990
Autumn
From Atlante Climatico della Liguria– ARPAL (2013)
Daily rain Recent floods
Montly disasters occurenceFrom ARPAL (2013)
Varazze event 04/10/2010• 24 hrs rain rate: 324 mm (but as much as 700 mm was reported by citizens)
• 3 hrs rain rate: 290 mm
• 1hr rain rate: 180 mm
• => Return time estimated over 200 yr
But in Liguria is it statistically significant?
Rainfall data from “La Ramognina”
Varazze worst historical floods1593 - 1915
Sea level riseClimate change
1 m
Wild fires
Urban sprawl
1700 2010
Varazze
Genova
1780 2010
Urban sprawl
THINGS WE KNOWLigurian catchment are mainly very small(1 – 10 km2)
Very high rainfall: cloudburst up to 180mm/hr
Concentration time shorter than 1 hour
24 hr rain is not consistent
Autumn is dangerous, but ...
THINGS WE THINK WE KNOWClimate is changing
Probabilistic rain forecast may work
Sea level rise will be moderate (<0.5 m)
Wildfires could cause/increase debris flood
Urban sprawl is ended years ago
Legislation #1 Basin Plan
Civil Protection PlanLegislation #2
Urban PlanLegislation #3
In 50-years flood NO new buildings
In 200-years flood YES new buildings in LOWER risk areas
BUT the Italian law permits a 20% increase in volume when retrofit a civil building
From www.greenreport.it/
AULLA - 2011 flood
From http://parliamodivarazze.blog.tiscali.it/
Varazze
GOVERNANCE
CORRUPTION
DRR ACTIONS
From Walter J. Amman – GRF Davos
PLANNING
CIVIL WORKS COMMUNICATION&
INFORMATION
SMART CITIES
http://dublindashboard.ie/pages/DublinEnvironment
Where is smart Emergency Management?
Frost & Sullivan http://ww2.frost.com/
But ...
Science to policy
The worrying impact of climate changeisn’t what we know,but what we don’t
Total failure of scientific advisors to engage politicians
Science to policy
WHO HAVE TO PASS THE MESSAGE?
Science to policy
“I can write it down: in Liguria more floods”
Science to policy
Suggested readingsRavetz, J. R. (1986). Usable knowledge, usable ignorance: incomplete science with policy implications. In Clark, W. C., and R. C. Munn, eds. Sustainable development of the biosphere,p. 415–432. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Funtowicz, S.O. and J.R. Ravetz (1990). Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy. Kluwer Academic Publishers, the Netherlands.
Saltelli A. and Giampietro M. (2015) The fallacy of evidence based policy. FUTURES, 2015 special issue.
Thank you!
Contact:Massimo Lanfranco
European CommissionJoint Research Centre (JRC)
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC)
Global Security and Crisis Management Unit
Via Enrico Fermi 274921027 Ispra VA, Italy
