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Joseph Krug@AugurProject
www.augur.net
Graphics assorted CC images — PM outcome diagrams provided by Paul Sztorc
Prediction Market: a market where you can buy and sell predictions
Price of event: $0.42 =
42% chance of the event happening!
Prediction Markets
PM Types
AFTER THE EVENT: REPORTING
User hashesreport andbroadcasts
Reporting Quorumreached
Reportsdecrypted
ConsensusReputationupdates &
cash payouts
Marketopens
BettingEvent(s)mature
Eventhappens!
Eve
nt
Eve
nt
Eve
nt
Eve
nt
Eve
nt
Event included in
market
Eventcreated
BEFORE THE EVENT: BETTING / FORECASTING
Augur Overview
Determining Outcomes of Events (Reputation)
Intrade Fees go to Intrade
Centralized third party (InTrade)
No punishment for manipulation
Half the fees go to reporters (reputation
holders) – other half to market
creators (anyone can create a
market)
FullyDecentralized
Lose reputation if you lie
Prototype
Pay for oracle use
P2P Wagers
Non-PM Applications
Potential Applications
Or… Any question you can think of