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A presentation held by mr Martin Ruhs, Migration Observatory, COMPAS, at the seminar "Moving beyond demographics" in Vienna on the 15th of May 2012
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Who needs migrant workers? Labour shortages, immigration and
public policyMartin Ruhs
Migration Observatory, COMPAS, University of Oxford
Part 1 - Labour immigration policies in HICs: aims, constraints, variable national policy spaces
Part 2 – Key features of labour immigration policies in HICs
Part 3 – The policy question: how can we link immigration to the “needs” of the domestic labour market and economy?
Part 4 – Discussion: What role for supra-national policies?
Overview
3 core questions of labour immigration policy
How to regulate:
1) Numbers (e.g. employer-led, quotas, fees, etc.)
2) Selection (e.g. by skill, nationality – points based systems; bilateral agreements)
3) Rights (e.g. temporary or permanent; access to labour market; access to welfare state; family reunion; access to citizenship)
Labour immigration policy: aims and constraints
Defining the “national interest” (objectives):• economic efficiency (e.g. growth;
competitiveness; fiscal ef)• distribution (e.g. protect lowest paid; and others?)• national identity and social cohesion (what is it?)• public order and national security
Constraints and variations:• state capacity to control immigration• the ‘liberal constraint’: dom. liberal institutions;
int. commit.• Inst. variations: polit. systems, prod. regimes,
welfare states
Choice under constraints
• States decide on openness, selection and rights based on objectives (variable) and constraints (variable; binding in short term)
• Variations and constraints define and circumscribe the “policy space” for the regulation of labour immigration at national level Variation across countries and over time
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1. TMPs predominate2. PMPs limited to high skilled
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3. Openness positively related to skill level targeted (H1)
0.6
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
0.72
Ope
nnes
s ind
ex
All (104 programmes) Upper HICs only (71 programmes)
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Regulating Openness
Quota:• existence, type and size of quota Demand restrictions: • job offer; labour market test; limited
occupations/sectors; economic fee; conditions of employment; trade union involvement
Supply restrictions• nationality and age; gender and marital
status; skills requirements; host country language skills; self-sufficiency
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4. Modes of immigration control by VoC
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1Quota
Job offer
LMT
Sec/occ
Fees
Conditions
T. Union
Nat/age
Gen/ms
Skills
Language
Self-suff
liberal (22) coordinated (19) mixed (15)
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5. Variation in restrictions across different rights
(all programmes , 2009)
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6. Rights restrictions inversely related to targeted skills (H2) , all programmes , 2009)
The policy question: how to link labour immigration to the “needs” of the domestic labour market and economy
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What and whose “needs”?
Two approaches: 1. Human capital approach: admission often without a job offer 2. Shortage approach: linking the admission of new migrant workers to the “needs” of the domestic labour marketAre migrant workers needed to “fill labour and skills shortages” and “to do the jobs that local workers cannot or will not do”?
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firms were considering moving jobs abroad because they could not recruit the staff they neededBBC, 21.09.10
A cap on migrant workers will hurt London’s economy
immigrants made a "substantial net contribution to the UK fiscal system"Independent, 24.7.09
Farm migrants 'vital' in east England
immigration cap on non-EU workers will do nothing but create skills shortages for important industries in the UKTelegraph, 24.11.10
PwC warned that businesses were "struggling to operate" Telegraph, 24.11.10
cap threatens the economic recovery and Britain’s ability to attract foreign investment
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The problem with “skills” and “shortage”
Skills:• Conceptually and empirically
ambiguous• Credentialised vs non-credentialised;
experience; “hard skills” vs “softs skills”
• Demand for employees with specific personal characteristics and “attitudes” (good “work ethic”; “compliant” and “cooperative”)
Shortages:– No universal definition? Demand for more
workers at prevailing wages?– Why not let wages rise?
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Identifying shortages using labour market data
• Common measures– Change in wages, employment,
unemployment, etc. – Vacancy rates, hard-to-fill vacancies, SSVs etc.
• US Bureau of Labour Statistics (1999)– Employment growth at least 50% faster than
average– Wage increases at least 30 percent faster than
average– Unemployment rate at least 30% lower than
average
• UK’s Migration Advisory Committee (MAC)– 12 “top-down” indicators
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MAC “top-down” indicators of shortages of pharmacists
Alternatives to immigration
• Alternatives– Increase wages, improve working conditions;
training –make production process less labour intensive – relocate to countries where labour costs are
lower;– switch to production (provision) of less labour-
intensive commodities and services;
• How do employers decide? – Relative cost matters– Path dependence ….. no going back?
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“System effects”: how public policiescreate demand for migrant labour
• e.g. construction in UK– Fragmented industry; low levels of labour market
regulation; temporary, project-based labour; casualised employment; no comprehensive vocational education and training system
• e.g. social care in UK– Publically funded and privately provided– Councils budgets have kept wages low– Demand for low-wage flexible workers
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Migrants in employment in the UK
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Growing reliance on migrant labour:choice or inevitability?
• Demand for migrant labour arises from broad range of public policies and institutions that go beyond immigration policy
• Immigration and public policy: mind the gap
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The UK’s Migration Advisory Committee (MAC)
• Established by Labour Government in 2007, retained under current Cons-Lib Dem Coalition Government
• Independent committee of 5 academic economists, supported by secretariat
• Advises Home Secretary on labour immigration policy
• Advice public but non-binding• Shortage occupation list: “skilled”,
“shortage”, “sensible”
Discussion:Harmonising labour immigration policies
across EU countries:- what- why- how
starting point: default is national regulation: what is the case for supranational regulation?
