THE IDEAL? FUTURE

OF THE EUROPEAN UNION (German team)

The politics lessons of the 12th class we designed future

scenarios for the European Union. In doing so, we started

from 3 possible developments:

Positive extreme scenario (most favourable future

development)

Negative extreme scenario (least favourable future

development)

Trend scenario (continuation of the current situation in

the future)

Here, we present some results:

Europe / the European Union in 30 years:

Group 1

Positive scenario: Turkey becomes a member of the European Union. The European economy will be boosted by the new member. No war in Europe and no economic crisis. Better support for third-world countries.

Trend scenario: Turkey is not accepted in the EU. The third-world countries receive only minor support. The economic situation becomes worse.

Negativ scenario: The third World War breaks out. Use of nuclear weapons. The economy collapses.

Europe / the European Union in 30 years:

Group 2

Trend scenario: The Copenhagen criteria will not change (democracy, human rights, etc.). If other countries want to join the EU, they have to fulfill these criteria.

Crises come and go, but Europe will start over again, because all countries support each other.

The success of the European Union depends on the specific governments in the individual member countries.

Europe / the European Union in 30 years:

Group 3 - Negative scenario: Turkey becomes a member of the European Union, but the integration

fails.

Despite all bailout funds, Italia, Spain and other economically troubled

countried won’t get back on their own feet. On the stock markets the

wild speculation will go on. Citizens suffer under the pressures of the

never ending economy crisis and the financial constraints. More and

more, they lose faith in democracy.

The €uro is losing massively in value. It comes to a severe inflation.

Due to the rapid acceptance of new members, the European Union

will lose its clean lines and structures. The political decision-making is

getting more complicated.

Due to the high unemployment rate, the young generation is suffering

more and more disorientation. Moreover, the ecucation systems are

weak and the young people can’t keep up with the rapid technological

progress. Out of frustration, the dislike of the other EU countries grows.

Negative scenario:

•The debt crisis will worsen.

•Some crisis countries be expelled from the EU.

•Other countries lose interest in joining the European Union. They understand that the EU isn’t no longer able to help them.

•The debt crisis will be passed on to EU citizens through higher taxes and reductions of social security contributions.

•Poverty leads to smuggling on a large scale. Therefore, the border controls will be tightened.

•The European Union can´t no longer fulfill its original objectives. Finally, it dissolves.

Europe / the European Union in 30 years:Group 4

Europe / the European Union in 30 years:

Group 5

Negative scenario:• Europe becomes a single country. The individual Member States cease to exist.• Nevertheless, Europe isn´t growing together. The language problems are too overwhelming. Moreover, people lose their identity.• Europe is sinking into heavy debt. Due to the bad economic situation crime is getting worse, especially drug trafficking. Unemployment is getting worse as well.

Negative scenario:

• If we fail to eliminate the political and economic disparities between

the Member States, Europe will fall apart.

• The European Union is not only stuck in a debt crisis, but also a crisis

of trust and democracy.

• Turkey's accession will lead mainly to the Islamisation of Europe.

Europe / the European Union in 30 years:Group 6

Europe / the European Union in 30 years:

Group 6

Europe / the European Union in 30 years:

Group 6

Europe / the European Union in 30 years:

Group 6

Negative scenario:

•The middle classes break away in the European countries. The demographic change and the economic losses are responsible for this development.

•The economically strong Turkey is accepted in the EU, to help the economically always weaker becoming European Community.

•The European education and training systems are too weak to meet the demands of the modern world.

•Germany and France fall out with each other, because they have different views on the economic and social policy in Europe. Thus, the core of the European Union will be destroyed.

… we hope very much that the future actually will be better