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National Investor Relations Institute on April 27 2012
Citation preview
The 2012 Elections & the Impact on the US Economy
Daniel PalazzoloProfessor of Political Science
University of Richmond
National Investor Relations InstituteApril 26 2012
The 2012 Elections
-Why Romney?*Lead in National Polls before IA Caucus*Money Raised*Endorsements
-Forecasting Models of the Presidential ElectionPolitical Science ModelHistorical Model
-Campaigns Matter: Four Campaign Questions-VA the Battleground
Economic Effects
Gallup Poll of National Republicans: Eve of IA Caucuses
Romney Gingrich Paul Santorum0
5
10
15
20
25
30 26%
22%
13% 11%
Source: http://www.gallup.com
Funds Raise by 4th Quarter of 2011
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
Santorum
0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000
$56,465,509
$25,901,305
$25,901,703
$2,178,703
Source: http:// opensecrets.org
Endorsements
Romney Gingrich Paul Santorum0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
64
93 0
82
14
3 2
Pre IowaAs of Feb 9
Source: http://www.p2012.org/candidates/natendorse.html
Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election
Political Science Models: 3 Key Factors
• State of the Economy
• Presidential Approval
• Incumbency
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08Sep-08N
ov-08Jan-09M
ar-09M
ay-09Jul-09Sep-09N
ov-09Jan-10M
ar-10M
ay-10Jul-10Sep-10N
ov-10Jan-11M
ar-11M
ay-11Jul-11Sep-11N
ov-11Jan-12M
ar-12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
5.1
5.6
6.1
7.3 8.7
9.5
9.8
9.9
9.8
9.4
9.5
9.4
8.9
9.1
8.9
8.5
8.2
Unemployment Rate: March 2008-March 2012(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Ike 56 Nixon 68 Carter 80
Reagan 84
Bush 92 Clinton 96
Bush 04 Obama 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8075
62
37
58
34
54 5348
Approval of Incumbents Running for Re-election(Gallup polls)
Historical ModelAlan Lichtman: 13 Keys to the Presidency
Key 1: Incumbent Party Mandate (midterm election results): XKey 2: No Serious Nomination Challenge: OKey 3: Incumbent Running for Re-election: OKey 4: Third Party Challenge: OKey 5: Short-term Economy (Election Year): ?Key 6: Long-term Economy (Growth better than previous terms: XKey 7: Major Policy Change (e.g. health care reform): ?Key 8: Social Unrest: OKey 9: Scandal: OKey 10: Foreign Policy or Military Failure: OKey 11: Foreign Policy or Military Success: OKey 12: Incumbent Charisma: XKey 13: Challenger Charisma: O
If incumbent party loses 5 or less keys, it holds on to the White House.(But no winner has ever lost the short term economy key.)
A very close race
Tracking Polls @realclearpolitics.com
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
Campaigns Matter: Four Questions
(1) Where is the Party?(2) What have you done?(3) What will you do?(4) Who are you?
Candidate Preference: GOP Voters (Pew: Feb 8-12)
Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
3028
17
12
42
23
1513
19
34
18
11
Rep/Lean Rep Tea Party Not Tea Party
Candidate Preference: Conservative v. Moderate/Liberal (Pew: Feb 8-12)
Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
4036
25
17
11
20
34
1614
Conservative Moderate/Liberal
Republicans Romney voter Conservative Moderate/liberal
Tea Party Not Tea Party0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8894
9084
95
8277
83 82
66
89
65
12 128
18
6
17
Support for Romney: Certainty Among Groups (Pew Research Center April 4-18, 2012)
Support Romney Certain Support Not Certain
Democrat Republican Independent0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10092
7
42
6
90
48
Presidential Vote by Party(Pew April 4-15)
Obama Romney
Romney Obama
Taxes Maintain Bush tax ratesRepeal Bush tax cuts incomes above $250K
Eliminate tax on interest, dividends, and capital gains for AGI less $200K
Buffett Rule: 30% minimum for $1 million
Reduce corporate income tax rate from 35% to 25 percent
Eliminate Tax Breaks for Oil, Gas, and Coal
Spending and Debt
Reduce spending from 24 to 18-20% GDP
2.1 trillion in new gross revenues through 2022
Roll back domestic discretionary spending to 2008 levels $360 billion in health care reductions
Medicare: Supports Paul Ryan’s premium support (55 under)
$160 billion in other mandatory reductions
Social security: means tests benefits and raise the retire age $350 billion jobs package
Tax Reform: no specifics $370 billion in tax reductions
Reversal of defense cuts$270 billion new spending – mostly education and infrastructure
Who Are You?
The GOP Successor/ Businessman The Likable Incumbent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
44
52
61 61
7175
78
Public Opinion of President Obama (Pew Research Center, Jan 11-16, 2012)
Economy Jobs Deficit Taxes0
10
20
30
40
50
60
48 47
38
464448
57
47
Candidate Choice by Most Important Issue(Pew April 4-15)
Obama Romney
Men Women 18-29 Hispanic HS less Less 50K Independent
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1
13
34 36
10
22
8
-6
13
28
40
69
-6
Vote for Obama Net % Difference Key Groups: 2008-2012
(2008 exit poll v. Pew 2012 survey)
2008 2012
Battleground States
• Link to http://www.270towin.com/The tan colored states are off for grabs, but the top 7 battlegrounds are: CO, NV, IA, OH, NH, FLA, and VA. (WI, colored blue, may emerge as a battleground)
Tracking Poll on the race in VA:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html
US
New Hampsh
ireIowa
Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
Florid
a
Nevada
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
8.2
5.2 5.2 5.6
7.5 7.89
12
Unemployment Rates in Key Battleground States(March 2012: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
2012 Congressional ElectionsCurrent House: GOP 242 / Democrats 193 2012 Elections: ProjectionsDemocrats Toss Ups Republican 172 49 214 Current Senate: Democrats 53 / Republican 47 2012 Elections: ProjectionsDemocrats Toss Ups* Republicans46 8 (5D/3R) 46----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*FL (Nelson-D), ME (Open-R), MA (Brown-R), MO (McCaskill-D), MT (Tester-D), NV (Heller-R), VA (Open-D), WI (Open-D) Source: Real Clear Politics