Steven Pifer: Seizing the Opportunity to Reduce Nuclear Weapons
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Seizing the Opportunity to Reduce Nuclear Weapons Steven Pifer Director, Brookings Arms Control Initiative May 30, 2013 World Affairs Council of Northern California
Steven Pifer: Seizing the Opportunity to Reduce Nuclear Weapons
Accompaniment to this event: http://www.worldaffairs.org/audio-video/2013/reduce-nuclear-weapons.html Speaker: Steven Pifer, Director, Arms Control Initiative, Brookings Institution Moderator: Zachary Davis, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory The ongoing nuclear proliferation issues with Iran and North Korea have put nuclear arms high up on the American foreign policy agenda. These media grabbing developments can sometimes overshadow traditional nuclear arms reduction talks and stockpile maintenance. With that said, President Obama made reducing existing nuclear weapons a foreign policy priority during his first term. Now that Obama has begun his second term with the New START Treaty between the US and Russia signed and in force, should the US consider other nuclear arms control steps to enhance American security? Can there be another major US-Russia treaty and, if so, can the tactical and surplus strategic nuclear warheads that have so far escaped control be brought into such a framework? Ambassador Steven Pifer will discuss the differences between Washington and Moscow over missile defense, the proposal to ban further production of fissile materials and the challenges facing the Obama administration in pursuing this agenda.
Citation preview
1. Seizing the Opportunity toReduce Nuclear WeaponsSteven
PiferDirector, Brookings Arms Control InitiativeMay 30, 2013World
Affairs Council of Northern California
2. New START Limits 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles 800
deployed and non-deployed launchersand bombers 1550 deployed
strategic warheads 3. US Nuclear Stockpile 4. TransparencyNew START
Numbers, March 2013New START Limit US RussiaDeployed strategic
deliveryvehicles (700) 792 492Deployed and non-deployedlaunchers
and bombers (800) 1028 900Deployed warheads (1550) 1654 1480 5.
Potential Cost Savings Need to recapitalizestrategic triad
Ballistic missilesubmarines Heavy bombers ICBMs Budget demands 6.
US, Russia NuclearWarhead LevelsUS RussiaDeployed strategic * ~1950
~1740Nonstrategic ~500 ~2000Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200
~700(~4700) (~4450)Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000Total warheads ~7700
~8500* Estimated actual number, not New START accountable
numberNumbers drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, Trimming Nuclear
Excess: Options for Further Reductions of U.S. andRussian Nuclear
Forces 7. Big Treaty Limit on each side of no more than2000-2500
total nuclear warheads 1000 deployed strategic warhead sublimit
Aggregate limit => trade-off Limit of 500 deployed
strategicdelivery vehicles 8. Notional Reduction to 2000 Total 9.
Parallel Reduction Tracks (1) Deployed strategic weapons Amend New
START limits (2) Reserve strategic and non-strategic nuclear
weapons Transparency/CBMs => negotiationregarding numerical
limits in phases 10. Cooperative Missile Defense? Transparency
Joint exercises Two independentsystems interacting Data fusion
center Planning andoperations center 11. Nuclear Explosions,
1945-2013United States 1054 totalRest of World USSR/Russia 715
France 210 Britain 45 China 45 India 6 Pakistan 5 North Korea 3
Total 1029 12. Multilateralizing Arms Control 13. Russia Under New
STARTNew START Numbers, March 2013New START Limit US RussiaDeployed
strategic deliveryvehicles (700) 792 492Deployed and
non-deployedlaunchers and bombers (800) 1028 900Deployed warheads
(1550) 1654 1480 14. US, Russia NuclearWarhead LevelsUS
RussiaDeployed strategic * ~1950 ~1740Nonstrategic ~500
~2000Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200 ~700(~4700)
(~4450)Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000Total warheads ~7700 ~8500*
Estimated actual number, not New START accountable numberNumbers
drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, Trimming Nuclear Excess: Options for
Further Reductions of U.S. andRussian Nuclear Forces
