Social Media in Australian Federal Elections: Comparing the 2013 and 2016 Campaigns

Prof. Axel BrunsDr. Brenda MoonDigital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australiaa.bruns / brenda.moon @ qut.edu.au@snurb_dot_info / @brendam

Book LaunchFriday, 14.30, at the Routledge book stall:

Prof. Brian McNair launches

The Routledge Companion to Social Media and Politics. Eds. Axel Bruns, Gunn Enli, Eli Skogerbø, Anders Olof Larsson and Christian Christensen. Basingstoke: Routledge, 2016.

Six continents. 37 chapters. 66 contributors. ~550 pages. #socmedpol

Come join us!

Australian Politics: A Crash Course• Key features:

– Westminster(ish) system: first past the post in 150 federal electorates = 150 MPs– But with voting preferences distribution from minor to major parties– Plus Senate: 12 senators per state, 2 per territory – (12 x 6) + (2 x 2) = 76 senators– Compulsory voting: 90%+ turnout, 3-5% informal (spoilt) votes– ~3-year parliamentary terms, can be shortened to ~2.5 years on PM’s advice

• Parties:– Australian Labor Party (centre left)– Coalition = Liberal Party (conservative) + National Party (agrarian protectionists)– Australian Greens (left, selected issues)– Palmer United Party, Katter’s Australian Party, Nick Xenophon Team, One Nation, … (anti-

establishment parties formed around charismatic leaders)

Australian Politics: A Car Crash• Considerable political instability since 2007:

– 1996-2007: PM John Howard (Liberal Party)– 2007: PM Kevin Rudd (Labor Party), elected in landslide– 2010: PM Julia Gillard (Labor Party) replaces Rudd in Labor coup– 2010: PM Julia Gillard (Labor Party) wins election, forms minority government– 2013: PM Kevin Rudd (Labor Party) replaces Gillard in Labor coup– 2013: PM Tony Abbott (Liberal Party), elected in landslide– 2015: PM Malcolm Turnbull (Liberal Party) replaces Abbott in Coalition coup– 2016: PM Malcolm Turnbull (Liberal Party) wins election with one-seat majority– (2016: Abbott building up for new coup attempt on PM Turnbull?)

Five (six, with Rudd mk. II) Australian Prime Ministers in ten years

Social Media in Australian Elections• Strong social media take-up in Australia:

– ~13m Facebook accounts; ~4m Twitter accounts, ~1m tweets/day (24m population)– Political uses well-established: ~10k #auspol tweets/day; #ausvotes; #qanda; etc.– Considerably larger volume of everyday political talk outside hashtags likely– Most politicians have social media accounts – varying sophistication

• Australian political social media research:– Studies of key hashtags and events (#spill / #libspill / #returnbull / …)– Interviews with key political operatives– Internal party research and post-election reviews– Analyses of social media citations and sourcing practices in mainstream media

Our Approach• Beyond hashtags:

– Identification of all candidates’ Twitter accounts before 2013 and 2016 elections– Tracking of activities: tweets by candidates + tweets at candidates (@replies and retweets)– Twitter Capture and Analysis Toolkit (TCAT) + Google BigQuery + Tableau– Comparative analysis of activity around candidates and parties during both elections

• Timeframes:– Last two calendar weeks before election day: Mon-Sun + Mon-Fri (election on Saturday)– 26 Aug. to 6 Sep. 2013 + 20 June to 1 July 2016

• Analysis:– Focus here on interpretation of quantitative patterns in electoral context– Qualitative study of tweet texts and sentiments to come later– Longer-term analysis of 2013 election patterns already published:

Axel Bruns. “Tweeting to Save the Furniture: The 2013 Australian Election Campaign on Twitter.” Media International Australia (2016). DOI: 10.1177/1329878X16669001.

2013: Candidate Activity

2016: Candidate Activity

2013: Engagement with Candidates

2016: Engagement with Candidates

Observations• Key patterns:

– Candidates in 2013:• Labor campaign reliant on rank-and-file candidates; frontbench largely absent

– Aligned with strong doorknocking campaign: ‘local target’ strategy• Coalition campaign driven by frontbenchers; other candidates quiet

– Strong central control, fear of missteps: ‘small target’ / ‘known target’ strategy

– Candidates 2016:• Labor campaign more united; frontbenchers much more present

– Doorknocking retained, but also better central control: ‘local target’ + ‘known target’ strategies• Coalition campaign more disorganised; limited control

– Indications of continuing internal disagreements over party direction: ‘small target’ vs. ‘friendly target’?

– Engagement in 2013 and 2016:• Much more engagement activity by ordinary users in 2016• Almost no retweeting in 2013; strong retweeting especially of Labor in 2016• Governing party always receives the greatest number of @mentions• Audience focus strongly on PM candidates and leading frontbenchers• Also some addressing of party dissidents: ex-PMs Gillard (2013) and Abbott (2016), internal critics Wayne Swan

(Labor, 2013) and Cory Bernardi (Coalition, 2016)

Thematic Patterns• Theme construction:

– Themes drawn from 2013 ABC VoteCompass + iSentia media themes of 2013– Iterative construction of distinct keyword baskets for each theme– Three additional themes introduced for 2016 election

• Theme analysis:– Classification of tweets based on keyword baskets– Ordered by specificity: e.g. ‘carbon tax’ Environment; ‘tax’ Budget– Iterative testing and refinement– Tracking across timeframes and comparison across elections

• Success rates:– 2013: 25% of tweets matched to themes / 2016: 34% of tweets matched to themes

Themes Comparison: 2013 / 2016

2013: Themes per Day

2016: Themes per Day

(*): new in 2016

Conclusion and Outlook• Longitudinal perspective:

– Evolution in campaigning strategies: • Labor rediscovery of local candidates and doorknocking + social media approach

– Counteracted by internal party turmoil:• Campaign plans disrupted by lack of enthusiasm and discipline following leadership coups

– Ordinary users’ activities largely stable:• Focus strongly on governing party, and party leaders

– Except for retweeting choices:• Significant changes between 2013 and 2016 – especially Labor retweeting

• Further plans:– More detailed content and thematic analysis (quantitative and qualitative)– Network analysis of @mention / retweet interactions: evidence of polarisation?

http://mappingonlinepublics.net/ @snurb_dot_info@brendam

@socialmediaQUT – http://socialmedia.qut.edu.au/ @qutdmrc – https://www.qut.edu.au/research/dmrc

This research is funded by the Australian Research Council through Future Fellowship and LIEF grants FT130100703 and LE140100148.