Social Media Analysis2010 Toronto Mayoral Race

Patrick Gladney@pgladney

October 22, 2010

Background and Objectives

This report builds on earlier studies examining social media activity involving the principal candidates in the 2010 Toronto Mayoral election: Rob Ford, Joe Pantalone and George Smitherman.

It reviews conversations taking place on social networks and reports on propensity of each candidate to be mentioned online as well as the accompanying sentiment from September 20 to October 21

This report offers a final effort to understand which candidate is winning the “word of mouth” war online, and will serve as the final reference for the relationship between online chatter and actual voting results come election day October 25.

About Social Media

Social media is conversation or interaction between people online. Unlike traditional news media, which tries to maintain objectivity and fairness in reporting the news, social media is a domain of unfettered subjectivity and bias. It’s an environment where innuendo assumes equal prominence alongside fact, and where special interests are forever seeking to leverage the channel’s potential to influence opinion and alter outcomes in their favour. It truly is a new and wild frontier.

Traditional polling asks voters who they plan to vote for. Social media provides a broader perspective. The volume and tone of discussion provides a real-time indication of voter engagement and intentions, possibly foretelling the fortune of the candidates based on the response and potential influence of the medium.

Trended Mention Activity – Final 3 Candidates

In adding together all of the mentions of the 3 candidates during the last 30 days, 65,543 posts emerged

3807

24442499

2093

1019

714

34103300

2203

1240

1055

881

1374

1163

2133

2361

1384

2031

982 956

713

1921

2682

2171

1740

913

1912

2706

4188

3453

2837

3258

Daily Average: 2009

Trended Mention Activity: Ford

There’s been a downward trend in Ford mentions, with peaks in activity attributable to televised debates, controversial policy announcements and polls challenging Ford’s front-runner status

2894

1587

14821393

645

472

2200

1848

1219

612549

696

868

700

1170

1018

730

1350

724

568

393

1155

1439

921

810

525

875

1235

1811

1493

1070

1245

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Poll compels Rossi to exit

raceFord unveils fiscal plan

Marathon ban, “Two Horse” race

poll released

Rossi attacks Ford at televised

debateFinal CP24

Debate

Daily Average: 1058

N= 35033

467

362

478439

241

166

812

1233

534

432427

134

315293

553

622

459

531

187170210

473

828

676

599

211

729

861

1337

12041227

1458

Trended Mention Activity: Smitherman

Smitherman is the only candidate whose average mentions have increased (by 8%) since Thomson departed the race on September 27, highlighted by a noticeable climb in activity since the last televised debate.

Thomson drops out,

throws support to

Smitherman

Final CP24

Debate

Poll compels Rossi to exit

race

Daily Average: 583

n= 18668

446495

539

261

13376

398

219

450

196

7951

191170

410

721

195150

71

218

110

293

415

574

331

177

308

610

1040

756

540

232

Trended Mention Activity: Pantalone

While exhibiting an upward trend overall, conversation activity for Pantalone has been sporadic

Daily Average: 340

Miller endorses Pantalone

Pantalone fiscal plan announcedToronto Star

column urging

Pantalone to quit

Final CP24

Debate

n=11178

Trended Mention Activity – All Candidates

For the first time in the past 30 days, on October 20 Smitherman overtook Ford in terms of absolute mentions

n=65543

0

500

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3500

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Ford Smitherman Pantalone

Candidate Share of Voice

Ford54%

Smitherman28%

Pantalone17%

Share of Voice is a proxy for online presence. It’s a relative measure of proportion of instances where a candidate is mentioned during the specified time frame.

For the period measured, Rob Ford has a larger share of mentions than the other candidates combined.

n=65543

Trended Share of Voice

In the last week of the campaign, Smitherman’s share of voice has eclipsed Ford and pulled away significantly from Pantalone

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Ford Smitherman Pantalone

%

n=65543

Sentiment – All Candidates

Sentiment analysis compares the percentage of opinionated (i.e. non-neutral) posts Ford has the highest proportion of negative comments and Pantalone has the highest

proportion of positive remarks

68% 74% 68% 62%

32% 26% 32% 38%

Overall Ford Smitherman Pantalone

PositiveNegative

N= 8582 N=4695 N=2538 N=1349

Trended Sentiment: Ford

The week following October 10 had the highest proportion of positive comments, two days after he released his fiscal plan and the week Rossi dropped out of the race.

75 78 75 69 74 74

25 22 25 31 26 26

Sept 20 to 25 Sept 26 to Oct 2 Oct 3 to 9 Oct 10 to 16 Oct 16 to 22 Total

Positive

Negative

N=1355 N=515 N=902 n=927 N=996 N=4695

Trended Sentiment: Smitherman

Smitherman received a boost in positive support following Thomson’s exit from the race, which has softened slightly heading into the last week of the campaign. .

74 70 65 6270 68

26 30 35 3830 32

Sept 20 to 25 Sept 26 to Oct 2 Oct 3 to 9 Oct 10 to 16 Oct 16 to 22 Total

Positive

Negative

N=320 N=228 N=517 N=570 N=903 N=2538

Trended Sentiment: Pantalone

Pantalone has consistently enjoyed the highest proportion of positive comments online, albeit with significantly lower volumes than the other candidates.

6757 59 59 66 62

3343 41 41 34 38

Sept 20 to 25 Sept 26 to Oct 2 Oct 3 to 9 Oct 10 to 16 Oct 16 to 22 Total

Positive

Negative

N=212 N=138 N=291 N=280 N=428 N=1349

Media Source

All candidates share a similar mix of comments on the various social media types, with Twitter being the dominant medium of conversation.

Twitter, 73%

Blogs, 18%

Social Networks, 4%

Message Boards, 4%Mainstream Media,

3%

Forums, 1%

n=65543

Social Network Profiles

Pantalone gained the largest number of Facebook fans during the past month, while Smitherman attracted the most followers. Ford actually lost followers towards the end of the campaign.

19132087

2487

19342166

2598

1896

2416

3273

FordSmithermanPantalone 1617

2087 1931

25942869

3309

1494 1621

2081

Facebook Fans

Twitter Followers

Sep-24 Oct-01 Oct-20Sep-24 Oct-01 Oct-20

Summary

Elections are often characterized by momentum. As this particular campaign comes to a close, it would appear as if George Smitherman has momentum on his side, at least in terms of the being the candidate that people are talking about. For the first time in the past month, and in any of the social media studies done on this election, Smitherman has surpassed Ford as the most discussed candidate.

Sentiment towards each of the candidates has remained relatively constant. Ford has always been a controversial, polarizing figure which is supported by the fact the he’s consistently fostered the most negativity. Then again, one might expect that the campaign front-runner would be subject to the most criticism, particularly in social media where his opponents strive to knock him off of his pedestal. Smitherman has maintained his positive sentiment scores, even during the last crucial week when his volume of mentions have increased.

There are a couple of bright spots with the Pantalone campaign. While hasn’t really engendered as much chatter as his opponents, he’s consistently achieved the most positive sentiment scores, and has done remarkably well on the social networks, having more Facebook friends than both of his opponents and more Twitter followers than Ford.

Appendix

Search Terms Used

Rob Ford Rob Ford Robford robfordteam “Ford” and “voteto”

or “mayor” Slobford

Exclusionary terms Fiesta, mustang,

crown, lincoln, focus, motor, co

George Smitherman George Smitherman G_Smitherman “Smitherman” and

“voteto” or “mayor” and not “carole” or “birmingham”

“George” and “voteto” “slitherman”

Joe Pantalone Pantalone jpantalone Joey Pants and

not “movie” or “festival” or “pantoliano”

“Joe” and “voteto”

Methodology

We used specialized social media software to aggregate English language mentions of the three remaining candidates in the race from September 20 through October 21th. The software collected information from social media sources like blogs, discussion forums, Twitter, mainstream media articles and comments. Data from image sites like YouTube and Flickr was not included. Data from Facebook was limited to publicly available content only, meaning any private conversations between friends that are protected by passwords and user privacy settings were not collected. Essentially, anything that is considered part of the public domain was considered for the analysis.

The system looks for mentions based on a query consisting of key words. The complete list of key words and exclusions is contained in the appendix. In general we used a combination of the candidates formal names (e.g George Smitherman) in addition to naming conventions commonly used as part of the online vernacular (e.g. Joey Pants).

Sentiment was calculated using an automated sentiment engine, which essentially looks for overtly positive or negative words that modify the subject, i.e. the candidates names

About Patrick Gladney (@pgladney)

Patrick Gladney was one of the first marketers in Canada to specialize in the area of social media research. He pioneered Social Currency™, a social media practice for Northstar Research Partners. His approach utilizes traditional research practices and principles to derive true insight from social media, a process that differs considerably from basic brand monitoring that’s become commonplace today. His experience working with clients such as BMW, Fairmont Hotels, RBC and The Toronto Star affords him a keen understanding of both how and why consumers engage in social media and how to accurately measure and understand consumer opinion. And because he has also worked for over 15 years in the advertising and communications industry, Patrick can advise on online and offline marketing solutions that respect the challenges confronting businesses in this new age of communications.