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National Economic Conditions
Ray Owens
April 12, 2011
-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012345678
-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012345678
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2
Q43.1
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
3
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product 5.0 3.7 1.7 2.6 3.1
Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.9 1.9 2.2 2.4 4.0
Nonresidential Fixed Investment -1.4 7.8 17.2 10.0 7.7Structures -29.2 -17.8 -0.5 -3.5 7.6Equipment & Software 14.6 20.4 24.8 15.4 7.7
Residential Fixed Investment -0.8 -12.3 25.7 -27.3 3.3
Exports of Goods & Services 24.4 11.4 9.1 6.8 8.6Imports of Goods & Services 4.9 11.2 33.5 16.8 -12.6
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 0.2 1.3 4.3 2.6 3.2
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories -36.7 44.1 68.8 121.4 16.2
Net Exports of Goods & Services -330.1 -338.4 -449.0 -505.0 -397.7
2010
Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
-1.4 -1.6 3.9 3.9 -1.7
4
Personal Saving Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Percent of disposable personal income
Feb.5.8%
5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year over Year % Change
Real PersonalIncome
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Feb.
Personal Income & Expenditures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Month over Month % Change
Dec. Jan. Feb.Income 0.2 0.8 -0.1Expenditures 0.1 0.0 0.3
6
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity.
ISM: Business Survey Indexes
Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
Feb. Mar. Feb. Mar.
Purchasing Managers Index 61.4 61.2 NonManufacturing Index 59.7 57.3
Production 66.3 69.0 Business Activity 66.9 59.7
New Orders 68.0 63.3 New Orders 64.4 64.1
Employment 64.5 63.0 Employment 55.6 53.7
Supplier Deliveries 59.4 63.1 Supplier Deliveries 52.0 51.5
Inventories 48.8 47.4 Inventories 55.5 55.5
Prices 82.0 85.0 Prices 73.3 72.1
Backlog of Orders 59.0 52.5 Backlog of Orders 52.0 56.0
New Export Orders 62.5 56.0 New Export Orders 56.5 59.0
Imports 55.0 56.5 Imports 53.5 50.0
7
Housing Vacancy Rate
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Percent
Q414.1%
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
8
Housing Starts
Single-Family Building Permits & Housing Starts
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Millions of Units
Building Permits
Feb.
9
Multi-Family Building Permits & Housing Starts
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
BuildingPermits
Housing Starts
10
CoreLogic House Price Indices
Source: CoreLogic/Haver Analytics
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year over Year % Change
Including Distressed Sales
Excluding Distressed Sales
Februay Incl. Distressed Sales -6.6% Excl. Distressed Sales 0.0%
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Net Absorptions & Employment
Source: Torto Wheaton, Bureau of Labor Statistics, & Haver Analytics
Thousands of Employees, Quarterly Averages Millions of Square Feet
Changes inEmployment(Left Axis)
Net Absorptions,Office Buildings
(Right Axis)
Notes: Office employment is the sum of employment in information, financial activities, and professional and business services.
11
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
12
Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons
Q1 Avg.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Mar. 216Feb. 194Jan. 68Dec. 152Nov. 93
Monthly Change
13
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Percent
Mar.8.8%
Civilian Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the January 25-26 meeting.
FOMC Forecast
14
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
All Items
Core CPI
Feb.2.1%
Consumer Price IndexesYear over Year % Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
1.1%
15
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
April 27 June 22 August 9
March 10, 2011
April 11, 2011
CurrentTarget Range for Federal Funds Rate
Expected Federal Funds RatePercent
Source: Chicago Board of Trade
Notes: Derived from Fed funds futures contracts.
16
Federal Reserve System Assets
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
Miscellaneous: $156
Treasury Securities:$476
Notes: PDCF is the Primary Dealer Credit Facility. AMLF is the Money Market Liquidity Facility.
Treasury Securities:$1,072
Miscellaneous: $175
Miscellaneous: $176
Foreign Currency Swaps: $553
Term Auction Facility:$450
Commercial PaperFacility (CPFF): $332
Treasury Securities:$790
Miscellaneous: $110
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
12/26/2007 12/31/2008 12/30/2009 12/29/2010
Treasury Securities: $755
Treasury Securities: $476
Treasury Securities: $777
Treasury Securities:
$1,010
Misc.: $133
Misc: $176
Misc.: $153
Misc.: $161Commercial
Paper Facility (CPFF): $332
PDCF: $38
Term Auction Facility (TAF):
$450
AIG & Bear Sterns: $114
AIG & Bear Sterns: $111
AIG & Bear Sterns: $113
Agency MBS: $910
Agency MBS: $1,001
Foreign Currency Swaps:
$553AMLF: $24
Discount Window: $87
Agency Debt: $160
Agency Debt: $147
TAF: $76
Term ABS Lending Facility
(TALF): $25
TALF: $48
Total: $922
Total: $2,250 Total: $2,235
Total: 2,457
TAF: $20
Virginia Industry Structure
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
0.6
4.3
8.9
19.0
2.1
5.8
12.8
15.0
10.1
4.1
17.3
0.3
4.9
6.3
17.1
2.1
4.9
17.8
12.7
9.4
5.3
19.2
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
Natural Resources & Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Employment Share (Percent)
2010U.S.
Virginia
Virginia Payroll Employment
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YoY
% C
hg
U.S.
Virginia
February 2011US: 1.0%VA: 1.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Virginia Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Perc
ent
U.S.
Virginia
February 2011US: 8.8%VA: 6.4%
Virginia Real Personal Income
Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
YoY
% C
hg
U.S.
Virginia
4Q: 2010US: 2.7%VA: 2.9%
Virginia Single-Family Building Permits
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YoY
% C
hg3-
mon
th m
ovin
g av
erag
e
U.S.
Virginia
February 2011US: -17.0%VA: -11.0%
Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Virginia Existing Home Sales
Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
YoY
% C
hg
U.S.
Virginia
4Q: 2010US: -19.5%VA: -18.9%
Virginia House Prices—FHFA HPI
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics
-9.0
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0
24.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
YoY
% C
hg
U.S.
Virginia
4Q: 2010US: -1.3%VA: -1.4%