Revue de presseRevue de presse23 mars 200623 mars 2006

Inde & Iran :Inde & Iran :2 poids, 2 mesures en matière 2 poids, 2 mesures en matière de non-prolifération nucléaire de non-prolifération nucléaire

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Guillaume Payre ESPACE MONDIAL – Sciences Po Paris

CHRONOLOGYCHRONOLOGY : INDIA’s nuclear program : INDIA’s nuclear program

19471947 : partition, nuclear program starts : partition, nuclear program starts1955-601955-60 : agreement CIRUS (Canada- : agreement CIRUS (Canada-

India Reactor, U.S.India Reactor, U.S.))19681968 : India refused to sign the NPT : India refused to sign the NPT19741974 : 1st nuclear test : 1st nuclear test19981998 : 5 other nuclear tests : 5 other nuclear tests

-> -> sanctions on Indiasanctions on India20012001 : sanctions lifted : sanctions lifted18 July 200518 July 2005 : India & USA seek deal : India & USA seek deal2 March 20062 March 2006 : agreement signed, still : agreement signed, still

need to be ratified by Congressneed to be ratified by Congress

““Our Opportunity With India”Our Opportunity With India”

By By Condoleezza RiceCondoleezza Rice, Monday, March 13, 2006, Monday, March 13, 2006 : :

« « IranIran may seek to draw connections between themselves and India, may seek to draw connections between themselves and India, but their rhetoric but their rhetoric rings hollowrings hollow » »

« « First, our agreement with India will make our future more secure, First, our agreement with India will make our future more secure, by expanding the reach of the international nonproliferation by expanding the reach of the international nonproliferation regime […] regime […] but but our agreement will not enhance its capacity our agreement will not enhance its capacity to make more [nuclear weapons]to make more [nuclear weapons] »»

« « Second, our agreement is good forSecond, our agreement is good for [India’s] energy security [India’s] energy security »»

« « Third, our agreement is good for Third, our agreement is good for American jobsAmerican jobs »»

« « Finally, our civilian nuclear agreement is an essential step toward Finally, our civilian nuclear agreement is an essential step toward our goal of transforming our goal of transforming America's partnership with IndiaAmerica's partnership with India » »

« « We are consulting extensively with We are consulting extensively with CongressCongress as we seek to amend as we seek to amend the laws needed to implement the agreement.the laws needed to implement the agreement. » »

Robert KAGANRobert KAGAN“India Is Not a Precedent”“India Is Not a Precedent”

Sunday, March 12, 2006Sunday, March 12, 2006Circumstances Justify the 'Double Standard' of Our Nuclear DealCircumstances Justify the 'Double Standard' of Our Nuclear Deal

« « huge nation, a huge huge nation, a huge democracydemocracy, powerful and increasingly , powerful and increasingly sympathetic to the ideological and strategic objectives of the USsympathetic to the ideological and strategic objectives of the US

«« RussiaRussia and and ChinaChina, two huge , two huge geopolitical problemsgeopolitical problems »»« « asas Bismarck Bismarck would have saidwould have said, , we want the closest possible relationship, we want the closest possible relationship,

partnership, even alliance with such a countrypartnership, even alliance with such a country » »« « the nuclear nonproliferation regime has been damaged and the nuclear nonproliferation regime has been damaged and may now be may now be

collapsingcollapsing but the the benefits outweigh the costs but the the benefits outweigh the costs »»««The bigger question likely to consume endless hours of hearings on The bigger question likely to consume endless hours of hearings on

Capitol HillCapitol Hill in coming weeks is what effect the deal will have on the in coming weeks is what effect the deal will have on the problem of Iran. problem of Iran. SomeSome will argue that the Indian nuclear deal harms will argue that the Indian nuclear deal harms efforts to halt Iran's nuclear weapons program because it erects a efforts to halt Iran's nuclear weapons program because it erects a double standard: We are willing to let India do what we are not willing to double standard: We are willing to let India do what we are not willing to let Iran do. let Iran do. »»

« « As for As for double standardsdouble standards, yes, we have double standards. , yes, we have double standards. The NPT The NPT erected a gargantuan double standarderected a gargantuan double standard »»

« « Were Were CongressCongress to reject the administration's deal to reject the administration's deal that futile gesture would have a that futile gesture would have a devastating effect on U.S. relations with India devastating effect on U.S. relations with India »»

Joseph Joseph CirincioneCirincione “The US's nuclear cave-in”“The US's nuclear cave-in”

March 4, 2006March 4, 2006

«« 8 / 22 Indian reactors would be exempt from IAEA inspections 8 / 22 Indian reactors would be exempt from IAEA inspections »»

« « India will increase its production from the estimated 6 to 10 nuclear India will increase its production from the estimated 6 to 10 nuclear bombs per year to 30 a year. India today has enough separated bombs per year to 30 a year. India today has enough separated plutonium for 75-110 nuclear weapons plutonium for 75-110 nuclear weapons »»

« « President Bush has done what Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Clinton and President Bush has done what Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Clinton and his father refused to do : break US and international law to aid India's his father refused to do : break US and international law to aid India's program. Inprogram. In 1974 India cheated on its agreements 1974 India cheated on its agreements »»

« « Bush violates the nuclear NPT and Bush violates the nuclear NPT and US Nonproliferation ActUS Nonproliferation Act » »

« « this is essentially this is essentially rewarding bad behaviorrewarding bad behavior and undermine the entire and undermine the entire international framework of the nonproliferation regime. international framework of the nonproliferation regime. »»

« « The lesson The lesson IranIran is likely to draw is simple : all this talk about violating is likely to draw is simple : all this talk about violating treaties is just smoke treaties is just smoke »»

«« We can't tell We can't tell IranIran that has signed the nuclear NPT that they can't have that has signed the nuclear NPT that they can't have enrichment technologies while simultaneously exemption for India, a enrichment technologies while simultaneously exemption for India, a nation that has refused to sign the treaty nation that has refused to sign the treaty » »

« « implications : implications : PakistanPakistan and and IsraelIsrael expect to receive a similar deal expect to receive a similar deal »»

BrahmaBrahma Chellaney ChellaneyMONDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2006MONDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2006

«« With With international attention focused on Iraninternational attention focused on Iran's renegade 's renegade nuclear program, a much-trumpeted nuclear deal that was nuclear program, a much-trumpeted nuclear deal that was to showcase the emerging global strategic partnership to showcase the emerging global strategic partnership between the United States and India has begun to unravel between the United States and India has begun to unravel virtually unnoticedvirtually unnoticed » »

«« it is almost certain that no formal nuclear agreement it is almost certain that no formal nuclear agreement will be readywill be ready for signature when President George W. for signature when President George W. Bush arrives in New Delhi on March Bush arrives in New Delhi on March »»

«« U.S. negotiators are seeking to constrict India's U.S. negotiators are seeking to constrict India's nuclear military capabilitynuclear military capability before New Delhi has built a before New Delhi has built a credible minimal deterrent credible minimal deterrent against its main rival, Chinaagainst its main rival, China»»

«« America's goalpost-shifting approachAmerica's goalpost-shifting approach shows it will shows it will accept accept India at most as a second-class nuclear power.India at most as a second-class nuclear power. India is unlikely to countenance that. India is unlikely to countenance that. » »

2 March 20062 March 2006 IAEA DirectorIAEA Director Mohamed ElBaradeiMohamed ElBaradei welcomes the cooperationwelcomes the cooperation

« This agreement is an important step towards satisfying « This agreement is an important step towards satisfying India´s growing need for energyIndia´s growing need for energy, including nuclear , including nuclear technology and fuel, as an engine for development. It technology and fuel, as an engine for development. It would also bring India closer as an important would also bring India closer as an important partner partner in the non-proliferation regime.in the non-proliferation regime. It would be a It would be a milestone, timely for ongoing efforts to milestone, timely for ongoing efforts to consolidate consolidate the non-proliferation regime the non-proliferation regime and strengthen and strengthen nuclear safety. » nuclear safety. » 

« The agreement would assure India of « The agreement would assure India of reliable access reliable access to nuclear technology and nuclear fuel.to nuclear technology and nuclear fuel. It would It would also be a step forward towards universalisation of the also be a step forward towards universalisation of the international safeguards regime international safeguards regime »»

« This agreement would serve « This agreement would serve the interests of both the interests of both India and the international communityIndia and the international community. ». »

LOBBIES battle on Capitol HillLOBBIES battle on Capitol Hill

NEUTRALS (want conditions to be attached) :NEUTRALS (want conditions to be attached) : Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.), chairman of the Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.), chairman of the

Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rep. Henry J. Hyde (R-Ill.), chairman of the House Rep. Henry J. Hyde (R-Ill.), chairman of the House

International Relations CommitteeInternational Relations Committee former Sen. Sam Nunn (Dem-Ga.)former Sen. Sam Nunn (Dem-Ga.)

FOR the US-India deal :FOR the US-India deal : Administration (State Administration (State

Dep & Dep of Energy)Dep & Dep of Energy) Neo-conservativesNeo-conservatives nuclear lobby & U.S. nuclear lobby & U.S.

Chamber of Commerce Chamber of Commerce Indian lobbyIndian lobby majority of Republicansmajority of Republicans

AGAINST the deal :AGAINST the deal : Iranian exilesIranian exiles Non-proliferation Non-proliferation

lobbylobby DemocratsDemocrats

CHRONOLOGYCHRONOLOGY : IRAN’s nuclear program : IRAN’s nuclear program

19571957: Shah interested in : Shah interested in civilian programcivilian program19681968: Iran signs and ratified the NPT: Iran signs and ratified the NPT19741974: purchase fuel (FR) and reactors (G: purchase fuel (FR) and reactors (G19791979: Islamic Revolution stops programs: Islamic Revolution stops programs1980-881980-88: Iran–Iraq War, use of Chem W: Iran–Iraq War, use of Chem W2002: 2002: two secret nuclear sites discoveredtwo secret nuclear sites discovered20032003: EU3 & Iran : EU3 & Iran suspend enrichmentsuspend enrichment10 Jan 200610 Jan 2006: Iran resumes enrichment: Iran resumes enrichment4 Feb 20064 Feb 2006: IAEA board adopts resolution : IAEA board adopts resolution March 2006March 2006: : UN Security Council to vote UN Security Council to vote statement or resolut°; Russia & China to abstainstatement or resolut°; Russia & China to abstain

Sources & méthodologieSources & méthodologie newsmapnewsmap newspapersnewspapers in English in English http://news.google.com/http://news.google.com/ Think Tanks websites :Think Tanks websites :

• Carnegie endowment for int peaceCarnegie endowment for int peace• Nuclear Threat Initiative Nuclear Threat Initiative • FRS : Fondation pour la Recherche StratégiqueFRS : Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique

experts Blogs (by RSS feeds) :experts Blogs (by RSS feeds) :• ArmsControlWonkArmsControlWonk

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