Political Opinion Barometer (CEO) 1st Wave 2015

1st wave 2015

Political Opinion Barometer

34

Pre

ss r

ep

ort

2 Contents

Contents

1. Technical specifications

2. Main results

Press report based on the results of the Political Opinion Barometer. 1st wave 2015

Corresponding to the Register of Opinion Studies number 774

Press Report, BOP. 1st wave 2015

3

Technical specifications Press report, Public Opinion Barometer (BOP). 1st wave 2015

1

4 Technical specifications

Summary

Scope: Catalonia

Univers: Spanish citizens of 18 years of age and more who live in Catalonia

Method of data collection:

Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI)

Sampling procedure:

Stratification by province and town size, with selection of last sample units (individuals) using sex, age and place of birth

crossed quotas.

Town size is divided into 6 categories: • less or equal to 2,000 inhabitants

• from 2,001 and 10,000 inhabitants



• from 150,001 and 1,000,000 inhabitants

• more than 1 million inhabitants

To calculate the quotas we use the official statistics from the Padró continu de població from the year 2013. The age

quotas correspond to the following intervals: • 18 to 24 years of age

• 25 to 34 years of age



• 65 and more years of age

Level of confidence: 95%

Variance p=q=50%

Sample size: 2,000 individuals

Sampling error: + 2.69%


5

Sample size:

2,000 interviews with the following territorial distribution:

• Barcelona 800

• Girona 400

• Lleida 400

• Tarragona 400

Allocation:

Not proportional. To obtain representative figures for the whole Catalan population, the results have been weighted by

the following territorial weights:

• Barcelona 1.8650318387

• Girona 0.4675226517

• Lleida 0.2841606232

• Tarragona 0.5182530476

Sampling error:

The overall margin of error of the survey is + 2.69%, for a confidence level of 95% (1.96 sigma) and under the assumption

of maximum indetermination (p=q=50%). In each province the margins of error are:

• Barcelona + 3.46%

• Girona + 4.90%

• Lleida + 4.90%

• Tarragona + 4.90%

Fieldwork:

The fieldwork has been performed by Opinòmetre, from the 9th of February to the 2nd of March 2015.

Technical specifications


6 Technical specifications


Methodological note:

Since 2014, the Public Opinion Barometer has changed its method of data collection and now uses face-to-face interview (CAPI) with

a new periodicity of three times a year. It has also included a number of changes in the questionnaire (omission of some old questions and

addition of new ones, changes in scales and question order). Therefore, when comparing past waves with new ones, these aspects

should be taken into consideration.

Some trend figures presented in this abstract refer to a telephone survey (CATI) performed in December 2014, the Survey about the

Catalan political situation, 2014.

7

Main results Press report, Political Opinion Barometer (BOP). 1st wave 2015

2

8

Tell me, please, to what extent you agree or disagree with each of the following statements:

(N=2,000; simple response; %)

Question 56

Political values


57.2

49.6

42.6

41.0

14.0

12.3

10.8

8.8

7.1

5.6

32.2

34.9

44.5

33.9

41.2

32.8

24.2

22.8

20.7

14.9

4.2

5.0

5.7

7.8

16.6

18.5

12.1

18.6

14.8

14.2

3.7

6.2

4.0

9.9

19.7

27.4

31.2

34.0

36.3

43.3

1.5

2.0

1.4

5.3

7.0

7.8

19.9

8.8

17.9

18.9

1.2

2.2

1.8

2.2

1.7

1.2

1.8

7.0

3.4

3.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Religion should not have any influence on politics

Someone in full use of his mental faculties should be allowed to decide when to die

The government should take measures to reduce differences in income levels

Gay and lesbian couples should be able to adopt children in the same conditions as heterosexual couples

The school should teach children to obey authority

Whatever the circumstances, the law should always be obeyed

With so much immigration, one does not feel at home anymore

The less the government intervenes in the economy, the better it is for the country

Economic growth has to have priority over the protection of the environment

Taxes should be reduced, even if it implies cutting on public services and benefits

Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Desagree Strongly disagree Dk + Na

9

Do you think that Catalonia has achieved...


Question 29

Political values

Relations between Catalonia and Spain


3.9

23.9

64.1

7.0 1.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Too much autonomy A sufficient level of autonomy An insufficient level of autonomy

Does not know Does not answer

3,9 5,2 5,0 4,9 4,1 3,3 2,7 3,1 3,3 3,6 4,0 5,0 3,1 3,9 3,8 5,1 4,9 3,4 3,3 4,6 4,6 4,4 4,4 3,3 3,9 3,8 4,6 3,9 2,3 2,6 5,5 3,9

34,5 35,9 37,4

31,0 29,4 28,1 28,9 26,2

31,8 27,9 29,0 27,2

24,6 28,0 28,4

31,2 29,9 29,1 26,5 28,0

24,0 26,0 23,9 21,3

18,6 19,2 19,1 20,6 24,2

21,7 21,7 23,9

52,8 52,4 51,6 57,5

60,3 61,6 62,6 65,3

61,4 62,7 62,0 63,7 68,1

62,0 60,8 59,0 60,5 61,8 65,9

62,0 66,5 65,3 65,7

68,4 71,6 71,2 72,5 70,4

66,6 69,2

64,0 64,1

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jul. 0

6

Oct. 0

6

Nov. 06

Marc

h 0

7

Jul. 0

7

Oct. 0

7

Nov. 07

Jan. 08

Apr.

08

June 0

8

Oct. 0

8

Jan. 09

Apr.

09

June 0

9

Nov. 09

Jan. 10

Apr.

10

June 1

0

Oct 10

Jan. 11

June 1

1

Oct 11

Feb.1

2

June 1

2

Oct. 1

2

Feb.1

3

June 1

3

Nov. 13

Marc

h 1

4

Oct. 1

4

Des. 14

Feb.

15

Too much autonomy Sufficient Insufficient

10

Do you believe that Catalonia should be...


Question 30

Political values


3.4

24.0 26.1

39.1

5.3 2.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

A region of Spain An autonomous community of Spain

(status quo)

A state in a federal Spain An independent state Does not know Does not answer

6,9 7,3 5,4 5,9 5,6 5,6 5,7 5,2 5,7 4,0 4,4 4,6 5,4

2,6 3,4

38,2 35,2

33,3 34,7 33,2

31,8

30,3

27,8 25,4

19,1 20,7

22,8

18,6

23,3 24,0 29,5

31,2 31,0 30,9 31,9

33,0 30,4 30,8

28,7

25,5 22,4

21,2

21,3

20,0

26,1

19,4 21,5

24,3 25,2 24,5 25,5

28,2 29,0

34,0

44,3 46,4 47,0 48,5 45,2

39,1

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan. 10 Apr. 10 June 10 Oct 10 Jan. 11 June 11 Oct 11 Feb.12 June 12 Oct. 12 Feb.13 June 13 Nov. 13 March 14 Feb. 15

A region of Spain An autonomous community of Spain (status quo) A state in a federal Spain An independent state

11

And more precisely, “Do you want Catalonia to become a State?”


Question 31

Political values


44.1

48.0

6.0

1.8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Yes

No

Does not know

Does not answer

44.5

45.3

7.5

2.8

0 20 40 60 80 100

Yes

No

Does not know

Does not answer

Survey about the Catalan political situation. 2014

12

And more precisely, “Do you want Catalonia to become a State?”


Question 31

Political values


Yes 44.1 11.9 78.7 91.9 6,0 24.3 0.3 89.7 15.2

No 48,0 88.1 17.2 6.1 86.2 62.3 94.8 6.1 79.2

Dk/Na 7.8 0,0 4.1 2.1 7.8 13.3 4.9 4.2 5.6

Real base 2000 47 304 367 121 60 124 159 209

Weighted base 2000 45 265 346 136 77 153 145 233

(*) Non-significant results

Vote intention to the Catalan Parliament

13

Do you consider yourself an independentist?


Question 45

Political values


Yes, I have always been [an independentist]; 24.1%

Yes, I have become [independentist] during these

last years ; 18.3%

No, I don’t consider myself an independentist; 54.4%

Dk+Na; 3.2%

14

If Catalonia was an independent state, how would the living standards of the

Catalan people be, according to you?


Question 32

Political values


38.0

18.9

26.2

16.4

0.6 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Better than now The same as now Worse than now Does not know Does not answer

45,1 45,1 38,0

16,7 18,1 18,9

23,1 21,7 26,2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Nov. 13 March 14 Oct. 14 Dec. 14 Feb.15

Better than now The same as now Worse than now

15

If Catalonia was an independent state, how would the coexistence [social

harmony] among the Catalan people be, according to you?


Question 33

Political values


18.2

53.1

18.6

9.6

0.4 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Better than now The same as now Worse than now Does not know Does not answer

22,0 20,7 18,2

46,0 52,1

53,1

20,4 18,4

18,6 0

20

40

60

80

100


Better than now The same as now Worse than now

16

If Catalonia was an independent state, how likely would it be that it would

stay automatically out of the European Union, according to you?


Question 34

Political values


16.6 19.3

26.6

19.5 17.3

0.8 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Very likely Rather likely Not very likely Not likely at all Does not know Does not answer

44,9

40,7 35,9 37,6

44,6 46,1

0

20

40

60

80

100


Very+rather likely Not very+not at all likely

17

To what extent do you think it is likely that the Spanish government will

finally offer an agreement that would be acceptable for a majority of the

Catalan Parliament?


Question 35

Political values


5.5

16.0

28.4

36.1

13.5

0.5 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Very likely Rather likely Not very likely Not likely at all Does not know Does not answer

23,7 19,2 21,5

64,7 67,0 64,5

0

20

40

60

80

100


Very+rather likely Not very+not at all likely

18

If elections to the Catalan Parliament were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would

you vote for?

(N=2,000; simple response; %;)

Question 37

Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia

Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote intention


2.2

13.2

17.3

6.8

3.8

7.7

7.3

11.6

1.2

3.7

0.7

9.7

11.6

3.1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Podemos

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Will not vote

Undecided

Does not answer

1,8

14,0

17,2

4,8

3,9

5,5

4,4

4,6

3,3

1,8

0,3

9,0

22,9

6,5

0 10 20 30 40 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Podemos

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Will not vote

Undecided

Does not answer


19

In particular, which one of the following sentences best describes your situation in the

past elections to the Parliament of Catalonia held on November 2012?


Question 38a


Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote recall


6.0

18.3

1.2

1.3

71.2

1.8

0.3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

I didn’t vote because I couldn’t (age, illness....)

I didn’t vote

I thought of voting but finally didn’t do it

I usually vote, but not this time

I am sure I voted

Does not know

Does not answer

16,5 23,0 22,8 22,5

26,8

83,0 75,6 75,4 76,3

71,2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Nov. 13 March 14 Oct. 14 Dec. 14 Feb. 15

Did not vote Voted True turnout

20

And could you tell me to what party or coalition did you vote for in the last elections to

the Parliament of Catalonia?


Question 38b


Real vote 2012 (% over the electoral census)

Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote recall


2.4

18.3

14.7

11.2

6.2

3.2

4.5

1.1

1.5

0.8

26.7

5.3

4.1

8,71

20,62

9,20

9,69

6,64

5,08

2,34

3,89

0,98

0,61

32,24

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUIA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Did not vote

Does not know

Does not answer

2,5

20,1

16,6

7,1

6,7

3,7

2,1

2,0

1,4

0,3

22,5

5,6

9,3

0 10 20 30 40 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUIA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Did not vote

Does not know

Does not answer


21

If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what

party or coalition would you vote for?


Question 39

Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados

Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote intention


3.4

12.6

13.5

8.4

3.3

5.5

2.0

20.0

1.0

3.2

0.9

11.2

12.1

2.8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Podemos

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Will not vote

Undecided

Does not answer


3,4

11,2

11,9

7,9

3,0

2,5

1,2

14,7

2,2

2,5

0,3

12,2

21,5

5,6

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Podemos

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Will not vote

Undecided

Does not answer

22

Pregunta 40a In particular, which of the following sentences best describes your situation in

the past elections to the Congreso de los Diputados:


Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote recall



6.3

19.8

1.8

1.3

67.4

3.1

0.3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

I didn’t vote because I couldn’t (age, illness....)

I didn’t vote

I thought of voting but finally didn’t do it

I usually vote, but not this time

I am sure I voted

Does not know

21,5 26,1 27,4 25,8 29,2

76,4 70,1 69,6 70,7 67,4

0

20

40

60

80

100

Nov. 13 March 14 Oct. 14 Dec. 14 Feb. 15

Did not vote Voted True turnout

23

Pregunta 40b

Real vote 2011 (% over electoral census)

If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what

party or coalition would you vote for?


Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote recall



4.0

14.9

11.9

16.1

6.8

1.2

0.9

1.0

1.7

1.0

29.2

7.8

3.4

13,63

19,31

4,65

17,52

5,32

4,13

1,22

1,06

33,18

0 10 20 30 40 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Did not vote

Does not know

Does not …


5,2

15,7

11,5

11,9

6,2

1,1

0,5

1,1

1,6

0,1

25,8

10,1

9,3

0 10 20 30 40 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Did not vote

Does not know

Does not answer

24

How do you rate the political performance of these leaders? Please rate them in a scale from 0

to 10, where 0 is very poor and 10 is excellent. (Base: know the leader; simple response; average)

Question 41a

Electoral behaviour

Ratings of political leaders


David Fernàndez 5.88 2.72 5.68 6.70 4.29 5.52 3.60 8.28 4.72

Alfred Bosch 5.25 3.77 5.60 6.41 4.06 4.61 3.13 5.76 3.16

Oriol Junqueras 5.05 1.63 6.31 7.77 3.27 4.51 2.93 5.93 3.47

Joan Coscubiela 4.68 3.28 4.26 5.26 4.27 5.97 3.70 5.30 4.23

Joan Herrera 4.48 2.95 4.20 5.13 3.77 6.70 3.48 4.62 4.33

Artur Mas 4.42 1.84 7.66 6.30 3.06 3.40 2.32 4.37 2.54

Jaume Collboni 3.92 2.30 3.72 4.39 5.29 3.82 3.50 3.47 3.82

Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida 3.79 4.76 4.80 3.75 4.10 3.67 4.58 2.18 3.36

Miquel Iceta 3.69 3.43 3.42 3.77 5.74 4.22 3.86 2.72 3.64

Albert Rivera 3.6 6.24 2.95 2.42 3.87 3.68 7.40 2.29 3.98

Carina Mejías 2.78 5.22 2.45 2.21 4.89 0.20 6.44 1.20 2.36

Jorge Fernández Díaz 2.08 5.97 1.85 1.47 2.77 1.70 4.22 1.03 1.76

Alícia Sánchez-Camacho 1.38 5.96 0.86 0.61 1.85 1.07 3.05 0.50 1.18

Reas base 2000 47 304 367 121 60 124 159 209

Weigthed base 2000 45 265 346 136 77 153 145 233

(*) Non significant results

Rating by vote intention to the Catalan Parliament

25 Appendix 1

Cross-tabulation of vote recall and vote intention to the elections of the Parliament of Catalonia.


Others/NullBlank

vote

Will not

voteDk/Da

Total

53.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.1 2.2

1.0 59.1 3.3 0.4 1.5 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.0 4.4 5.3 13.2

1.0 14.3 78.0 3.1 5.7 0.0 5.8 11.6 2.7 5.2 5.6 17.3

0.0 0.9 0,0 46.1 0.4 3.6 0.0 0.0 6.3 4,0 1.7 6.8

0.0 1.1 0.9 0.0. 50.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 3.8

22.9 3.8 0.0 6.7 3.4 81.7 0.0 1.3 0.0 9.1 4.1 7.7

0.0 3.6 7.1 0.2 4.2 0.0 76.6 17.0 0.0 3.1 7.3 7.3

9.0 4.5 0.8 29.2 20.0 9.8 9.2 11.3 16.0 13.5 12.4 11.6

Others/Null 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.1 34.9 1.0 2.9 2.5 1.9

Blank vote 3.9 1.6 1.1 1.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.4 5.5 4.8 3.7

Will not vote 0.0 0.9 1.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 2.8 30.4 7.1 9.7

Dk/Da 8.8 9.8 7.3 8.0 11.6 4.9 4.3 6.4 10.8 18.4 47.0 14.7

Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0Real base 47 415 314 190 109 58 110 30 33 476 218 2000

Weighted base 47 365 295 225 124 64 90 37 29 534 189 2000

(*) Non-significant results

Vote recall to the Catalan Parliament 2012

Vote

inte

ntio

n to the C

ata

lan P

arlia

ment

26 Appendix 2


Political Opinion Barometer, 1st wave 2015

Direct vote

intention

Vote

estimates Sit

estimates

Resultats 2012

(in %) (in % over valid

vote) %VV escons

CiU 13.2 19.5 31-32 30.7 50

ERC 17.3 18.9 30-31 13.7 21

PSC 6.8 8.2 11-12 14.4 20

PP 2.2 10.2 13-14 13.0 19

ICV-EUiA 3.8 5.8 6-8 9.9 13

C's 7.7 12.4 16-17 7.6 9

CUP 7.3 7.3 10-11 3.5 3

Podemos 11.6 12.2 16-17

others 1.2 3.9 ---- 5.7 ---

blank vote 3.7 1.6 ---- 1.5 ---

null vote 0.7

Abstention (“will not vote") 9.7 Turnout: 68%

Undecided 11.6

Do not answer 3.1


27 Appendix 2


Political Opinion Barometer, 1st wave 2015

Direct

intention

Vote

estimates Sit

estimates

Results 2011

(in %) (in % over valid

vote) %VV sits

CiU 12.6 18.8 12 29.4 16

PSC 8.4 10.8 5-6 26.7 14

PP 3.4 11.9 5-6 20.7 11

ICV-EUiA 3.3 3.7 1 8.1 3

ERC 13.5 15.1 8-9 7.1 3

C's 5.5 7.9 2-3

6.3 0 CUP 2.0 3.9 1

Podemos 20.0 21.2 11-12

others 1.0 4.9 ---

blank votes 3.2 1.8 --- 1.9

null votes 0.9

Abstention (“will not vote") 11.2 Turnout: 68%

Undecided 12.1

Do not answer 2.8


News & Politics

Political Opinion Barometer (CEO) 1st Wave 2015