Political Evolution of the Political Evolution of the International Space Station:International Space Station:

Prospects for Future SuccessProspects for Future Success

Mariel JohnMariel John

Research and AnalysisResearch and Analysis

Space FoundationSpace Foundation

IntroductionIntroduction

• Space Station Program has gone through numerous political milestones

• Debates have recurring themes

• How do these themes apply to the future?

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OutlineOutline

• ISS Budget• Overview of themes• Milestones in ISS development

• Decision to develop a station• Ongoing debate in the 1980s• Near cancelation 1993• NASA reorganization in 2005• Current budget possibilities

• Prospects for the future

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Space Station Budget (NASA)Space Station Budget (NASA)

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**Budget data 1999 and later are from NASA, other data points were gathered from news reports.

Benefits from the ISSBenefits from the ISS

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• International perceptions of ISS partners

• International partnerships

• Research and innovation

• Technology development, maturation and transfer

• Preparation for space exploration

• Education and workforce

• Commercial space activities

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Milestones of DevelopmentMilestones of Development

Decision to Develop a StationDecision to Develop a Station

Ronald Reagan

State of the Union

1984:

“Tonight, I am directing NASA to develop a permanently manned space station and to do it within a decade.”

Supporting RationaleSupporting Rationale

• International perception: “Demonstrate technological leadership” “Tribute to American teamwork and excellence”

• International partnerships: “Strengthen peace”

• Research/innovation: “Peaceful economic and scientific gain”

• Tech development/maturation/transfer: “Research in science, communications, metals and lifesaving medicines”

• Education/workforce: “Jobs will multiply”

• Commercial space: “Promote private sector investment in space”

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• International perception: “If the U.S. does not take this step, we will lose our pre-eminence in space”

• Research/innovation: “Laboratory for scientific research”

• Tech development/maturation/ transfer: “Hub for low-gravity manufacturing”

• Preparation for space exploration: “Service station for interorbit traffic” “Next logical step for long-duration work''

PerceptionsPerceptions

New York TimesNew York Times, , 1982-831982-83

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Perceptions: Paine Commission,1985Perceptions: Paine Commission,1985

Pioneering the Space FrontierPioneering the Space Frontier

“The commission recommends… the U.S. Space Station program be kept on schedule for an

operational capability by 1994, without a crippling and expensive ‘stretch-out.’”

•International perception: “Conducive to an expansive space program… in accordance with American values”

•International partnerships: “Model for handling competitive and cooperative relationships”

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Perceptions: Paine Commission,1985Perceptions: Paine Commission,1985

Pioneering the Space FrontierPioneering the Space Frontier

• Research/innovation: “State-of-the-art facilities for laboratory experiments” “Primary functions… microgravity and other research”

• Tech development/maturation/transfer: “Novel applications will develop from basic research”

• Preparation for space exploration: “Increase our understanding of effects of space environment on people'‘

• Commercial space: “Spark new industries… as a space laboratory for academic and industrial researchers”

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• International perception: “Russians could have an assemblage of space station units three times the size of the one planned by the United States”

• International partnerships: “Slip would disrupt or jeopardize international station arrangements with Europe, Japan and Canada” “Need international participation to establish a framework for future cooperative ventures”

• Research/innovation: “Laboratory for scientific and technological experiments”

PerceptionsPerceptions

New York TimesNew York Times, , 1985-891985-89

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• Preparation for space exploration: “Base for staging expeditions to the Moon” “More politically and economically defensible if the nation commits to missions to the Moon and Mars and beyond”

PerceptionsPerceptions

New York TimesNew York Times, , 1985-891985-89

• Education/workforce: “Slip could force partial dismantling of the nationwide industry team” “Energize young people to study science and math”

• Commercial space: “Expand opportunities for commercial ventures in space”

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“First, for the coming decade, for the 1990s: Space Station Freedom, our critical next step in all our space

endeavors.” - President Bush, 1989

•Research/innovation: “Investment in the growth, prosperity and technological superiority of our nation”

•Preparation for space exploration: ”First and necessary step for sustained manned exploration”

PerceptionsPerceptions

Space Exploration Initiative, Space Exploration Initiative, 19891989

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Advisory Committee on the Future of the U.S. Space Program

•Research/innovation: “Microgravity research does represent an altogether valid element of America's economic competitiveness program”

•Preparation for space exploration: “Gain the much needed life sciences information and experience in long duration space operations” “Critical next step if the U.S. is to have a manned space program in the future” “Verification of long duration space operating systems”

PerceptionsPerceptions

Augustine Report, Augustine Report, 19901990

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• International perception: “Japan would take the lead in space research if Congress killed the space station”

• International partnerships: “Jeopardize future international scientific ventures”

• Research/innovation: “Orbiting outpost in which astronauts fashion new materials, study the physics of fluids, grow crystals, perform medical experiments”

Perceptions: Perceptions: New York TimesNew York Times

Near Cancellation, Near Cancellation, 19931993

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• Preparation for space exploration: “First step on the road to space colonization” “Studying the effects of space on human life” “Indispensable stepping stone for exploring Mars” “Would enhance biomedical research into the health complications of long-range space flight”

• Education/workforce: “Employing tens of thousands of people in more than a dozen states” “Source of inspiration to American youths” “Consensus emerging that the space station can benefit the economy” “Space station would create 75,000 high-tech jobs”

Perceptions: Perceptions: New York TimesNew York Times

Near Cancellation, Near Cancellation, 19931993

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“An amendment to the space-agency authorization bill that was intended to kill the program was

defeated 216 to 215.”

Perceptions: Perceptions: News ArticlesNews Articles

Near Cancellation, Near Cancellation, JuneJune 19931993

• “Research/innovation: “Opportunities for advanced research in biotechnology and metallurgy” “Gateway from a defense-based economy to a high-technology future”

• Technology development: “Far-reaching scientific spinoffs”

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• Preparation for space exploration: “Determine the long-term effects of space travel on human beings” “Prepare for long-range manned space travel and permanent colonies”

• Education/workforce: “Putting space research and jobs ahead of cutting the budget deficit” “Lawmakers from California, Florida and Texas provided the core of support” “Vital to protect high-wage jobs”

Perceptions: Perceptions: News ArticleNews Article

Near Cancellation, Near Cancellation, JuneJune 19931993

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• International partnerships: “Consistent with U.S. obligations contained in agreements between the United States and other partners”

• Preparation for space exploration: “Research prioritized to support human exploration” “How the space environment affects astronaut health and capabilities” “Effects of space environments on the human body” “Logistical burden of supporting humans far from Earth”

• Commercial space: “Use existing or new commercial launch vehicles for cargo transport” “Pursue commercial opportunities for providing transportation and other services”

Vision for Space ExplorationVision for Space Exploration

NASA Reorganization in 2005NASA Reorganization in 2005

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• International perception: “Partnership expresses a ‘first among equals’” “By terminating the ISS, U.S. would voluntarily relinquish its unique area of unchallenged leadership in space”

• International partnerships: “Decision not to extend… would significantly impair U.S. ability to develop and lead future international spaceflight partnerships” “Strong and tested working relationship among international partners is perhaps most important outcome”

Perceptions: Augustine Report, 2009Perceptions: Augustine Report, 2009

Current Budget PossibilitiesCurrent Budget Possibilities

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• Research/innovation: “Nation’s newest National Laboratory” “Development of broad capabilities in science and technology” “Scientific opportunities”

• Preparation for space exploration: “Enhanced testbed for technologies and operational techniques that support exploration” “Valuable testbed for life support, environmental and advanced propulsion technologies”

• Commercial space: “Assure the existing commercial cargo contractors of a more secure market”

Perceptions: President’s FY2011 Budget RequestPerceptions: President’s FY2011 Budget Request

Current Budget PossibilitiesCurrent Budget Possibilities

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• International partnerships: “Example of peaceful and constructive international cooperation”

• Research/innovation: “Basic scientific research and technology demonstration” “Human, plant and animal biotechnologies, aerospace technologies and defense sciences research”

• Tech development: “Closed loop life support systems and remote medical care capabilities... can be used to benefit people here on Earth”

Perceptions: Augustine Report, 2009Perceptions: Augustine Report, 2009

Current Budget PossibilitiesCurrent Budget Possibilities

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Perceptions: Augustine Report, 2009Perceptions: Augustine Report, 2009

Current Budget PossibilitiesCurrent Budget Possibilities

• Preparation for space exploration: “Learning how to live and work in space” “Research needed for prolonged stays in space, including on the Moon, Mars “Developing and testing technologies and capabilities that are funded and operated within both the Exploration Technology and Space Technology programs”

• Commercial space: “Develop U.S. commercial crew transportation”

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“It shall be the policy of the United States, in consultation with its international partners in the ISS program, to support full and complete utilization of

the ISS through at least 2020.”•International partnerships: “Maximize productivity and use of the ISS with respect to… international collaboration” “Key component of international efforts to build missions and capabilities”•Research/innovation: “A National Laboratory… developed, managed and utilized in a manner that enables effective and innovative use” “Scientific and technological research and development”

NASA Authorization Bill, FY 2010NASA Authorization Bill, FY 2010

Current Budget PossibilitiesCurrent Budget Possibilities

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• Preparation for space exploration: “Advancement of space exploration”

• Education/workforce: “Scientific outreach and education activities” “Development of educational programs, course supplements, interaction with educational programs at all grade levels”

• Commercial space: “Support the existing Commercial Orbital Transportation Services program” “Conducted in a manner that provides opportunities … cooperation with commercial suppliers, users and developers”

NASA Authorization Bill, FY 2010NASA Authorization Bill, FY 2010

Current Budget PossibilitiesCurrent Budget Possibilities

ISS PerformanceISS Performance

Issue Impact of ISS to DateInternational perceptions

Highly visible effort Currently demonstrates technological leadership

International partnerships

15 international partners More than 20 years of successful cooperation on ISS

Research/ innovation

Government/private company interest in conducting research More than 100 experiments during ISS construction

Tech development/ maturation/transfer

New companies created in more than 20 states based on technologies developed for the ISS

Preparation for space exploration

Hardware/software proven successful for use in space Studies on physiological effect of long-term space flight

Education/ workforce

Educational activities included more than 31M U.S. students, providing real-life illustrations of math/science

ISS workforce includes thousands of people in 37 statesCommercial space activities

COTS program has provided important market for new space launch companies

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ISS PerformanceISS Performance

Issue Impact of ContinuationInternational perceptions

Nations continue leadership roles

International partnerships

Continue to be model for future cooperation

Research/ innovation

Continues research that may create new technologies Carries out cutting-edge human-tended microgravity research, not

possible on any other existing platformTech development/ maturation/transfer

Continued opportunity for ISS-developed technology to be applied to new fields

Preparation for space exploration

Tests technologies in near-Earth orbit where launch/operation/ resupply are less costly/less demanding

Learn more about the effects of long-term spaceflight on humansEducation/ workforce

Continues educational activities/opportunities for students Continues to sustain a highly technical workforce of thousands of

AmericansCommercial space activities

Provides extended mission to support commercial space launch development

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Colorado Springs, Colo.

www.SpaceFoundation.org

719.576.8000

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ISS Cost and Schedule EstimatesISS Cost and Schedule Estimates

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• 1983 - The agency has estimated it will cost $6 billion to $8 billion to have a permanent station with four to six persons on board in orbit by 1991

• http://www.nytimes.com/1983/07/19/science/a-station-in-space-predicted.html?scp=44&sq=%22space+station%22&st=nyt

• 1984 - The space station is expected to be launched within the next decade at an estimated cost of $8 billion.• 1987 - The proposed space station will cost considerably more than the original estimate of $8 billion, perhaps as much as $13 billion, and it is

already more than a year behind its 1994 deployment schedule.• http://www.nytimes.com/1987/02/08/us/space-station-costs-and-allies-role-raise-doubts.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

• 1988 - The United States is in the detailed design stage of building the station, which is expected to be ready for occupancy early in 1998. The estimated cost of the American project has risen from $8 billion in 1984 to more than $30 billion.

• http://www.nytimes.com/1988/03/20/us/europeans-agree-to-work-on-us-space-project.html?scp=8&sq=%22space+station%22%2B%22estimated+cost%22&st=nyt

• 1989 - The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing a space station at an estimated cost of $28 billion.• http://www.nytimes.com/1989/03/03/business/economic-scene-the-darker-side-of-the-budget-gap.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

• 1990 -  The space station was originally sold to Ronald Reagan's Administration and to Congress on the basis of an estimated cost of $8 billion, but its projected price is now more than $30 billion.

• http://www.nytimes.com/1990/05/27/us/big-science-it-worth-price-periodic-look-largest-new-research-projects-heavy.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

• 1990 - The report is likely to strike a responsive note in Congress, at least on the point of redesigning the space station to reduce costs, whose estimated cost had risen as high as $35 billion for the decade.

• http://www.nytimes.com/1990/12/11/science/giving-new-purpose-to-the-space-program.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm• 1991 - The quandary now facing Congress is how to finance a number of expensive NASA science projects for the 1990's as well as the

station, whose cost over its 30-year lifetime is estimated by the General Accounting Office to be $118 billion.• http://www.nytimes.com/1991/06/11/science/space-errors-share-pattern-skipped-tests.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

ISS Cost and Schedule EstimatesISS Cost and Schedule Estimates

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• 1991 - The agency wants to build a manned space station that has an estimated cost of $84 billion to $118 billion over its 30-year lifetime and is likely to drain money from smaller projects.

• http://www.nytimes.com/1991/09/16/us/nasa-moves-to-end-longtime-reliance-on-big-spacecraft.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

• 1993 - The flight is meant to pioneer techniques for use on NASA's space station, which the Clinton Administration has ordered redesigned to cut its estimated cost of $31 billion.

• http://www.nytimes.com/1993/03/23/science/with-seconds-to-go-engine-failure-halts-shuttle.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

• 1998 - The project's total cost is a subject of debate, but the most credible estimates now put the price of assembly and of operation for a decade, the station's estimated lifetime, at $110 billion.

• http://www.nytimes.com/1998/12/05/us/space-station-s-first-construction-crew-lifts-off-aboard-the-shuttle.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

• 2002 - United States spending on building the station is capped at $26 billion, the task force said. The estimated cost of restoring full research capability and a seven-person crew is put at an additional $5 billion.

• http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/20/us/cuts-lessen-space-station-s-value-to-science-report-says.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm