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PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

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Page 1: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1
Page 2: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1
Page 3: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13.

Page 4: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*What follows are the Extracted Plan Elements from

Brown’s Excellent, but Poorly

Articulated Plan B 3.0, all Chapters.

Page 5: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Essentially, Brown’s Excellent

plan is to -

1. Kill the Carbon Market Scam, to charge the cost of Carbon Pollution now, to the polluters. This alone will ENABLE THE MARKET, YOU, to re-direct funds away from Coal, Oil, to Renewable Energy – Wind, Sun.

2. Pull Global and National Defense out of the dark ages, to face TODAYS Security Threat – FAILING STATES, due to I. Poverty, II. Population, III. Resource Rape and IV. Global Warming.

Page 6: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Bottom Line Highlights:I. Eradicating Poverty,

II. Stabilizing Population. C7

1. Two children per couple.

2. Universal basic education.

3. Teacher training.

4. Scholarships.

5. Focus on girls.

6. Adult literacy.

7. School lunch program

8. Global WIC – Women, Infants, Children.

9. Stabilize population at 8 billion by 2041.

10.Universally available family planning.

11. TV, radio as tools.

12.Dry compost toilets.

13.Oral rehydration.

14.Reduce cigarette smoking.

15.Protect non-smokers.

16.Condoms.

17.AIDS medications.

18.Reduce developed world farm subsidies.

19.Reduce developing world debt.

Page 7: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Smaller families brings generous

economic dividends.

*Bangladesh, analysts concluded that $62 spent by the government to prevent an unwanted birth saved $615 in expenditures on other social services, a 900%, 10 fold return.

*Reproductive health and family planning services leaves more fiscal resources per child for education and health care, thus accelerating the escape from poverty.

*$7.9 billion gap

Page 8: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Economic benefits of health care.

*Village-level clinic, would yield enormous economic benefits for developing countries and for the world as a whole.

*Providing basic universal health care in developing countries will require donor grants totaling $27 billion in 2007, scaled up to $38

billion in 2015, or an average of $33 billion per year. In addition to

*basic services, this $33 billion includes funding for the global fund to

*fight AIDS,

* tuberculosis and

*malaria and for

*universal childhood vaccinations.

Page 9: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Condoms.

*Dealing with the HIV threat requires roughly 13.1 billion condoms a year in the developing world and eastern Europe.

*Including those needed for contraception adds another 4.4 billion.

*But of the 17.5 billion condoms needed, only 1.8 billion are being distributed, leaving a shortfall of 15.7 billion.

*At only 3.5c each, or $550 million, the cost of saved lives by supplying condoms is minuscule.

*If we assume that logistics, training, education, etc. Costs are six times the price of the condoms themselves, filling this gap would still cost only $3 billion.

Page 10: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*AIDS financial resources and

medical.

*Severely limited compared with the need.

*4.6 million people who exhibited symptoms of AIDS in sub- Saharan Africa in 2006, just over 1 million were receiving the anti-retroviral drug treatment that is widely available in industrial countries – just 25%; a 75% shortfall (death-fall).

*The prospect of treatment encourages people to get tested for HIV – and raises awareness and understanding of the disease and how it is transmitted.

Page 11: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Steps needed to eradicate poverty.

*Accelerate the shift to smaller families.

*Filling several funding gaps

*Reach universal primary education;

*Fight infectious diseases, such as AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria;

*Provide reproductive health care;

*Contain the HIV epidemic

*The initiatives discussed in this chapter are estimated to cost another $77 billion a year.

Page 12: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Steps needed to eradicate poverty.

*Heaviest investments in this effort center on education and health:

*Cornerstones of both human capital development and

*Population stabilization.

*Education:

*Universal primary education and a

*Global campaign to eradicate adult illiteracy.

*Health care includes

*The basic interventions to control infectious diseases,

*Beginning with childhood vaccinations.

Page 13: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Bottom Line Highlights:I. Avert Massive POVERTY–

Feed 8 billion well. C9.

1. Breed crops that are more tolerant of drought and cold.

2. Multicrop land.

3. Additional fertilization in Africa.

4. Secure land ownership.

Raise water, nutrient productivity:

5. Raise irrigation efficiency.

6. Raise price on water.

6. Move over-privileged down food-chain.

7. Limit to yield of aquifers and rivers.

8. Produce protein more efficiently.

9. Grain, then chicken, Herbivorous fish.

10.Fish polyculture.

11.Roughage for fodder.

12.Fortified salt.

13.Move poor up the food-chain.

14.Eradicate Poverty.

15.STABILIZE CLIMATE.

16.Lower-footprint transportation.

17.Lower-footprint housing.

18.TERMINATE FOOD INTO FUEL.

Page 14: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Bottom Line Highlights:

III. Restoring the Earth. C8.

1. Protect, restore forests.

2. Reduce wood use.

3. Recycle paper.

4. Efficient 3rd world stoves, energy – wood, sun, wind.

5. Sustainable forestry.

6. Reconstituted wood.

7. Equatorial tree plantations.

8. Reforest waste, eroded land.

9. Conserve, rebuild soils.

10.Conservation tillage.

11.Reduce herd size.

12.Bring forage to herd.

13.Global clear-cut ban.

14.Regenerate fisheries.

15.Reduce fertilizer, sewage runoff.

16.End fishery subsidies.

17.Protect diversity.

18.Water management, for fish.

19.Parks, reserves.

20.Plant trees to sequester carbon - billions.

21.END DEFORESTATION.

Page 15: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*The earth restoration

budget.

1. Reforest the earth,

2. Protect top- soil,

3. Restore rangelands and fisheries,

4. Stabilize water tables, and

5. Protect biological diversity.

*Note - forested area is already expanding in the northern hemisphere's industrial countries.

Page 16: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Reforestation costs, the focus is

on developing countries.

*Seedlings cost $40 per thousand, 4 cents each.

*$80 per hectare, at 2000 seedlings per hectare.

*Planting labor largely voluntary - $400 per hectare including seedlings.

* With a total of 150 million hectares to be planted over the next decade, this will come to roughly 15 million hectares per year at $400 each for an annual expenditure of $6 billion.

Page 17: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Reducing erosion to the rate of new soil formation

or below.

*Two principal steps:

*1st - Retire the highly erodible land that cannot sustain cultivation.

*The estimated one tenth of the world's cropland that accounts for perhaps half of all excess erosion.

*For the United States, that has meant retiring 14 million hectares. *$125 per hectare.

*In total, annual payments to farmers to plant this land in grass or trees under 10- year contracts approached $2 billion.

Page 18: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*2nd - Conservation practices on vulnerable

land.

*Land that is subject to excessive erosion— that is, erosion that exceeds the natural rate of new soil formation.

*Incentives to encourage farmers to adopt conservation practices such as: a. Contour farming,

b. Strip cropping, and, increasingly,

c. Minimum-till or no-till farming

*In the United States total roughly $1 billion per year.

*The total for the world to retire vulnerable land would be roughly $16 billion annually.

Page 19: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Rangeland protection and

restoration.

*UN estimates that it would cost roughly $183 billion over a 20-year restoration period—or $9 billion per year.a. Improved rangeland management,

b. Financial incentives to eliminate overstocking, and

c. Revegetation with appropriate rest periods, when grazing would be banned.

*Every dollar invested in rangeland restoration yields a return of $2.50 in income from the increased productivity of the rangeland ecosystem.

Page 20: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Restoration of oceanic fisheries.

*Establishment of a worldwide network of marine reserves, which would cover roughly 30 percent of the ocean's surface.

*Estimated range of expenditures centers on $13 billion per year.

Page 21: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Wildlife protection.

*Shortfall in funding needed to manage and to protect existing areas designated as parks comes to roughly $25 billion a year.

*Additional areas needed, including those encompassing the biologically diverse hotspots not yet included in designated parks, would cost perhaps another $6 billion a year,

*Yielding a total of $31 billion.

Page 22: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Stabilizing water tables.

*Disseminating the results:

*Work through agricultural extension services.

*Work through the water users associations.

*Requires knowledge of the amount of water being pumped and aquifer recharge rates.

* In most countries this information is simply not available.

*May mean installing meters on irrigation well pumps,

*As has been done in Jordan and Mexico.

*Removing subsidies will effectively raise the price of water, thus encouraging its more efficient use.

*It will take additional expenditures of $10 billion.

Page 23: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Restoring the earth.

*Restoring the earth will require additional expenditures of $113 billion per year.

*Many will ask, can the world afford this? But the only appropriate question is,

*Can the world afford to not make these investments?

Page 24: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Bottom Line Highlights:Cities, Home now for 55% of us –

Lessening Load on IV. CARBON, III. RESOURCES, I. POVERTY, Humanity.

C10.

1. Redesign urban Transport.

2. Charge cars to enter city.

3. Bike friendliness.

4. Massively reduced water use.

5. Composting toilets.

6. Urban farming.

7. Upgrade, integrate squatter settlements.

8. Stop need for squatter settlements.

9. Eliminate parking subsidies.

Page 25: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*IV a. ELIMINATE CARBON from New Energy Demands. C11.

Page 26: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

Plan B Energy Efficiency Measures

From Plan October 2009

Page 27: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*IV b. Sprint toward Wind and Sun, Eliminating Existing Coal. C12.

Page 28: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Plan B involves a crash program to develop 3,000

gigawatts of wind generating capacity by

2020; “3000 ‘COAL PLANTS’

WORTH.

*This will require a near doubling of capacity every two years, up from the doubling every three years for the last decade.

*It will mean .0001 gigawatt for every 2,500 of the world's projected 2020 population of 7.5 billion people.

*Denmark—with .0001 gigawatt for every 1,700 people—is already well beyond this goal.

*Spain will likely exceed this per capita goal before 2010 and

*Germany shortly thereafter.

Page 29: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Requires the installation of 2

million 2-megawatt wind turbines.

*65 million cars the world produces each year.

*At $3 million per installed turbine, this would involve investing $4.5 trillion over the next dozen years, or $375 billion per year.

*World oil and gas capital expenditures that are

projected to reach $1 trillion per year by 2016.*Wind turbines can be mass-produced on assembly

lines.

*The idled capacity in the U.S. automobile industry is sufficient – and the skilled, idled workers.

Page 30: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

World Electricity Generation by Source in 2008 and in the Plan B Economy of 2020

Page 31: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

Plan B Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction Goals for 2020

Page 32: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*The World Energy Economy of 2020.

*Development of 5,153 gigawatts of new renewable generating capacity by 2020, vs. 5,153 coal plants.

*Over half of it from wind.

*More than enough to replace all the coal and oil and 70 percent of the natural gas now used to generate electricity.

*The addition of 1,530 gigawatts of thermal capacity by 2020 will reduce the use of both oil and gas for heating buildings and water. Roughly two thirds of this growth will come from rooftop solar water and space heaters

Page 33: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Global Marshall Plan to

implement Plan B in time. C13.

Page 34: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Saving Creation has 2 major

Tasks:

*Task A: Terminate Market Blindness to Ecological, Environmental Services, Value and Destruction, Pollution.

*Task B: Create National Security Machine focused forward to 21st Century Threats – FAILING STATES.

Page 35: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Tax coal, exactly as we do cigarettes, so

not the innocents, but the perpetrators

pay.

*Incorporating the increased health care costs associated with mining it and breathing polluted air,

*The costs of damage from acid rain, and

*The costs of climate disruption,

*The costs of REMEDIATING THE DAMAGE THAT TODAY WE COULD PREVENT …

…Would encourage investment in clean renewable sources of energy such as wind or solar.

Page 36: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*To restructure the energy economy -

carbon tax (like on cigarettes).

*Paid by the primary producers—the oil or coal companies.

*New prices can be used by all economic decision-makers to make more intelligent decisions.

Page 37: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Worldwide carbon tax of $240 per ton

to be phased in at the rate

of $20 per year between 2008 and

2020.

Page 38: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Gasoline tax, just like we tax cigarettes.

* Indirect costs to society:

*Climate change,

*Oil industry tax breaks,

*Oil supply protection (war machine),

*Oil industry subsidies, and

* Treatment of auto exhaust-related respiratory illnesses.

*REMEDIATING THE DAMAGE THAT OTHERWISE OUR CHILDREN WILL PAY FOR.

*$12 per gallon.*These are real costs. Someone bears them. If not us,

our children, and their children….

Page 39: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Gasoline tax, just like we tax cigarettes.

*Gasoline taxes in Italy, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom averaging $4.40 per gallon are almost halfway there.

*The average U.S. gas tax of 47 cents per gallon, scarcely one tenth that in Europe, helps explain why more gasoline is used in the United States than in the next 20 countries combined.

*Phasing in a gasoline tax of 40 cents per gallon per year for the next 12 years, for a total rise of $4.80 a gallon, and offsetting it with a reduction in income taxes would raise the U.S. gas tax to the $4-5 per gallon prevailing today in Europe and Japan, about $1,800 per ton, as in Europe, roughly 10 times today’s tax.

Page 40: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Tax restructuring can create an honest

pricing system for destroying ecological

services.

*Values of services that trees provide, such as flood control and carbon sequestration.

*Stumpage tax.*Market for lumber would then be based on

ecologically honest prices.

*Would reduce tree cutting and encourage wood reuse and paper recycling.

Page 41: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Rational, Responsible Subsidy-shifting to

Creation, not Destruction.

*Shifting these subsidies to the development of climate-clean energy sources such as wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal power will help stabilize the earth's climate.

*Shifting subsidies from road construction to rail construction could increase mobility in many situations.

*Shifting the $22 billion in annual fishing industry subsidies, which encourage destructive overfishing, to the creation of marine parks to regenerate fisheries would be a giant step in restoring oceanic fisheries.

Page 42: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Summing Up Climate

Stabilization Technology Measures.

*Need to cut net carbon dioxide emissions 80 percent by 2020.

*1. Electricity and heat:*Replacing fossil fuels with renewable

sources - 3.1 billion tons by 2020.

*Phasing out the use of coal reducing the 3 million deaths from air pollution each year.

Page 43: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*2, 3. Transport sector.

*Greatly reduced use of oil will eliminate close to 1.2 billion tons of carbon emissions.a. Plug-in hybrid cars that will run on

carbon-free sources of electricity such as wind.

b. Remainder comes largely from shifting long-haul freight from trucks to trains,

c. Electrifying freight and passenger trains,

*Using green electricity to power them.

Page 44: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*4. Bring deforestation to a halt, and reforest

by 2020.

*Net deforestation of the earth is responsible for an estimated 1.5 billion tons of carbon emissions per year.

*A number of countries already have total or partial bans.

Page 45: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Increase the number of trees on

the earth in order to sequester

carbon.

*Forestation of wastelands will fix more than .95 billion tons of carbon each year.

*Similarly ambitious planting of trees to control flooding, reduce rainfall runoff to recharge aquifers, and protect soils from erosion.

Page 46: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*5. Sequester Carbon thru Land

Management.

*Fix an estimated .6 billion tons of carbon per year.

a. Minimum- or no-till cropland.

b. Planting more cover crops during the off-season.

c. Using more perennials instead of annuals in cropping patterns, e.g., using less corn and more switchgrass to produce fuel ethanol.

Page 47: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*6. Huge potential for cutting carbon

emissions through

conservation.

*Summer 2006 Japanese men encouraged to not wear jackets and ties.

*I just lost 3,500 pounds. Ask me how." When asked, he said he had sold his car. Replacing a 3,500- pound car with a 22-pound bicycle obviously reduces energy use dramatically, but it also reduces materials use by 99 percent, indirectly saving still more energy.

Page 48: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*7. Dietary changes can also

make a difference.

*Energy differences between a diet rich in red meat and a plant-based diet is roughly the same as the energy- use difference between driving a Chevrolet Suburban sports utility vehicle and a Toyota Prius gas-electric hybrid.

*Those of us with diets rich in livestock products can do both ourselves and civilization a favor by moving down the food chain.

Page 49: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

Plan B Energy Efficiency Measures

From Plan October 2009

Page 50: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

World Electricity Generation by Source in 2008 and in the Plan B Economy of 2020

Page 51: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

Plan B Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction Goals for 2020

Page 52: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*We CAN do this and keep CO2 below 400

parts per million, limiting the future

rise in temperature.

*We can drop carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 more than 80 percent below today's levels

1. Replacing fossil fuels in electricity generation.

2. Switching to plug-in hybrid cars.

3. Going to all-electric railways.

4. Banning deforestation.

5. Sequestering carbon by planting trees and improving soil management.

6. Conservation.

7. Dietary Changes.

Page 53: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Task 2: Focusing 21st Century National

Security on the 21st Century Challenges.

Page 54: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*What is needed now is a new cabinet-level

agency—a Department of

Global Security.

*Fashion a coherent policy toward each weak and failing state.

*Threats to security are now coming less from military power and more from the trends that undermine states:1. Rapid population growth,

2. Poverty,

3. Deteriorating environmental support systems, and

4. Spreading water shortages.

Page 55: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Department of Global Security

(DGS):

*Funded by shifting fiscal resources from the Department of Defense. In effect, the DGS budget would be the new defense budget.

*Focus on the central sources of state failure.1. Helping to stabilize population,

2. Restore environmental support systems,

3. Eradicate poverty,

4. Provide universal primary school education, and

5. Strengthen the rule of law through bolstering police forces and court systems.

Page 56: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

B. Youth Service Corps.

*One year of compulsory public service for its young people.

*Teach in inner-city schools.

*Environmental clean-up programs.

*Plant trees.

*Restore and maintain the infrastructure in national parks.

Page 57: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Y.S.C. in developing countries.

*Teaching and helping to organize family planning,

*Tree planting, and

*Micro-lending programs, while

*Developing a sense of civic pride and social responsibility.

Page 58: PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

*Fast-growing reservoir of retired

people- C. Senior Service

Corps.

*Highly skilled in such fields as management, accounting, law, education and medicine.

*Eager to be of use.

*Talents could be mobilized through a voluntary senior service corps.

*Provide the skills so lacking in failing-state governments.

*Conditions now require a much more ambitious, systematic effort to tap this talent pool.

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