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Online Campaigning in Baden-Württemberg and beyond

Studien- und Dialogprogramm

für Wahlkampfexperten aus Europa

Stuttgart, 25.03.2011

Marko Bachl

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Marko Bachl, M.A.

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Agenda

Internet Usage: Some General Trends and Figures

Traditional and Less Traditional Websites

Campaigning 2.0 – What’s Going on Within the Social Web?

Discussion

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Internet Usage: Some General Trends and Figures

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Marko Bachl, M.A.

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A Quick Refresher: Internet Usage in Germany

Internet users in Germany (in %), 1997-2010 (Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)

14-19 Y. 20-29 Y.

30-39 Y.

40-49 Y.

50-59 Y.

60 +

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20

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50

60

70

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90

100

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total

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Social Media Usage in Germany

Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010 (Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)

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10

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30

40

50

60

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100

 Wikipedia Video (YouTube) Social Networks Blogs  Twitter

2007 2008 2009 2010

Total

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Social Media Usage in Germany

Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010 (Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

 Wikipedia Video (YouTube) Social Networks Blogs  Twitter

2007 2008 2009 2010

19-29 Years

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Social Media Usage in Germany

Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010 (Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

 Wikipedia Video (YouTube) Social Networks Blogs  Twitter

2007 2008 2009 2010

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

 Wikipedia Video (YouTube) Social Networks Blogs  Twitter

2007 2008 2009 2010

14-19 Years

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8 Political Information – Does the Internet Matter?

Sources of information and political online news in the 2009 campaign GLES Vorwahl/Nachwahlbefragung 2009, N = 4.057/2.067; Germans from the age of 18 up

TV 58,6

Newspaper 21,5

Radio 3,2

Internet 5,5

Conversation 9,2

other 2,1

On the one hand…

What is your main source of campaign news? (in %)

not at all 75,0

1-2 days 14,8

3-4 days 7,3

5+ days 2,9

On the other hand…

On how many days a week did you use the internet to gather political information? (in %)

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Who are the Political Onliners?

Young, well educated, and highly involved in politics GLES Vorwahl/Nachwahlbefragung 2009, n = 183; Germans from the age of 18 up; main information source is the internet

62% male

Foto: Cavan Images; via Flickr

51% High School degree

41% high political interest

More likely to be voters of Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen and FDP

(after adjusting for age)

43% younger than 30

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Traditional and Less Traditional Websites

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Marko Bachl, M.A.

11 Little Surprise: All Parties have Up-to-date Websites

CDU FDP SPD Grüne

Party

Candidate

Campaign integrated in party website

integrated in party website

integrated in party website

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12 But Website Development still Seems to be Campaign-driven…

21.2.2011

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13 But Website Development still Seems to be Campaign-driven…

21.2.2011

1.3.2011

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Traditional Websites

All parties present up-to-date websites

Party websites as well as candidate websites; SPD: campaign page

well designed, use of latest web technology

Main functions

Presentation of all imaginable information on the party, politicians, political programs and campaign activities

Information hub for all online activities on other platforms

Big step forward compared to earlier (state) elections

Main mistake: information and design overload

Usability suffers from huge amount of information and design gimmicks

It's quality not quantity that counts!

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15 Less Traditional Websites – Negative Campaigning Sites of the CDU

Dagegen-Partei Grüne

Reports projects that are obstructed by Die Grünen

Appeals to partisans to report such projects in their neighborhoods

Faktencheck BW

Delivers counter-arguments against policy plans of SPD and Die Grüne

First impression: non-partisan blog

Schlinger-Partei SPD

Exposes the SPD as ‘flip-flopper party’

Combines a fun quiz format with negative campaigning

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Online Negative Campaigning

Negative campaigning is (and has been) a general characteristic of online campaigns, often combined with humor (not only CDU)

Calculation of campaigners: less boomerang effects as ‘official’ politicians can distance themselves more easily; stays out of broader public

Target group: mostly own partisans

NC engages and motivates by highlighting differences to opponents

NC delivers arguments for political (online) discussions (see Faktencheck)

Research shows that NC is very effective online campaign content

First glance: Promising approach for campaign managers

BUT: Long term consequences for political culture? NC may enhance polarization beyond the accepted threshold of a political controversy

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Campaigning 2.0 – What’s Going on Within the Social Web?

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Selected Social Web Activities by Party

CDU FDP SPD Grüne

Party

Candidate

Campaign (example)

Unser Land: Zu schade für Rot-Grün-Rot

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YouTube – the Hidden Giant

Video platforms as YouTube are among the most wide-spread social media applications: basically every young person uses them

USA: one in four political onliners forwards political online videos

Nevertheless, YouTube is widely disregarded in public discussion

Baden-Württemberg election:

All parties have regularly fed YouTube channels;

In addition independently distributed channels/videos by candidates

BUT: Not a single successful campaign-produced video

Most often boring, irrelevant content

Influential distribution of ‘voter-generated content’

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YouTube – the Hidden Giant… for the Worse

Final result: non-trivial view count of an embarrassing video; (comparison: FDP TV-spot < 5.000; CDU TV-Spot: 48.877)

10.2.: just another boring political video on YouTube

2.3.: the viral spiral starts: first time embedded at facebook.com

15.3.: viral spiral enforcement: embedded in A-list-blogs netzpolitik.org and spreeblick

almost one month

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YouTube – the Hidden Giant… even worse

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YouTube – the Hidden Giant

Success factors for campaign videos on YouTube (2009):

Most successful: official TV-spots

Relevant issue (2009: financial and economic policy)

Humor and Negative Campaigning

Beware:

YouTube never forgets

Everything can go viral

YouTube can present powerful pictures – against you

YouTube is becoming a source for traditional online and broadcasting media – therefore, YT videos may reach a mass audience

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Selected Social Web Activities by Party

CDU FDP SPD Grüne

Party

Candidate

Campaign (example)

Unser Land: Zu schade für Rot-Grün-Rot

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Facebook/Twitter: Mappus and Schmid

“Thank you for your comment!” “Where am I? Where will I go?”

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Facebook/Twitter: Mappus and Schmid

“Thank you for your comment!” “Where am I? Where will I go?”

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Selected Social Web Activities by Party

CDU FDP SPD Grüne

Party

Candidate

Campaign (example)

Unser Land: Zu schade für Rot-Grün-Rot

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Facebook/Twitter: Discussions and Mocking

Highly polarized discussions – mainly on the CDU/Mappus pages

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Social Media: Illusions of Majorities

The number of Facebook ‘friends’, ‘fans’ or ‘likes’ are used to generate and illusion of majorities

Traditional mass media report these numbers like opinion polls and reinforce the illusion

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Social Media: Illusions of Majorities

The number of Facebook ‘friends’, ‘fans’ or ‘likes’ are used to generate and illusion of majorities

Traditional mass media report these numbers like opinion polls and reinforce the illusion

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Marko Bachl, M.A.

30 Campaigning 2.0 What’s Going on Within the Social Net?

Conclusion – Campaigners:

All parties serve almost every social media channel

BUT: only very limited real engagement; traditional push communication

Positive example: for a limited number of political onliners, the Facebook pages of the parties are a well-used meeting point

Conclusion – Voters:

Highly polarized online electorate a lot of bashing, little discussion

Active political onliners still seem to be a minority, but very active (within both political camps)

Weak signs of a evolving political blogosphere / twittersphere

Special case Stuttgart 21: counter public via social media

Best example: fluegel.tv

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Discussion

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Contact Information

Marko Bachl

Institut für Kommunikationswissenschaft

Fruwirthstraße 46

70599 Stuttgart

Tel: 0711/ 459-22866

E-Mail: marko.bachl@uni-hohenheim.de

Web: www.komm.uni-hohenheim.de/bachl.html

Twitter: @bachl