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REDEVELOPMENT IN AN ERA OF RISK
Part 1: Local Recovery Planning Manager Program
Part 2: Risk Assessments
Methodology
Results
Topics
LRPM PROGRAM
PART 1:
Initial Involvement
▪ FEMA seeking a partner for local recovery effort
▪ FEMA/Merck Foundation request to create LRPM position
▪ FEMA noted lack of local capacity in disaster response
▪ NJ Recovery Fund provided additional funding
The Program
Screening Criteria1. Considerable storm damage
2. Limited or no in-house planning capabilities
3. Primarily full-time residents
Who We Work With
RISK ASSESSMENT
Why Do A Risk Assessment?
Purpose:
Evaluate vulnerability to likely hazards;
Prioritize those actions that most effectively reduce or avoid future loss.
“If I had an hour to solve a problem I’d spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and 5 minutes thinking about solutions.”
-Albert Einstein
3 Step Process
1. Inundation Extent
2. Inundation Depth
3. Estimation of Exposure
NOTE: SLR projections from Rutgers UniversityDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences
RESULTS
Little Egg Harbor Township – Current
2050 SLR
2050 SLR/1% Storm
Property Class (Class Code)# of Lots
Exposed
# of Acres
Exposed
Vacant (1) 366 348
Residential (2) 4,083 686
Farm (3A) 1 6
Farm (3B) 0 0
Commercial (4A) 54 62
Industrial (4B) 0 0
Apartment (4C) 0 0
Public School Property (15A) 0 0
Public Property (15C) 180 8,795
Church/Charitable (15D) 5 4
Other Exempt (15F) 22 7
Total 4,711 9,909
▪ Total Exposed Lots: 4,711▪ % of Total Lots: 36%▪ Total Exposed Acres: 9,909▪ % of Total Acres: 34%
The Bottom Line
2050 SLR /1% Flood Scenario, Parcels
Property Class Total Exposed Value% of Total
Value
Vacant (1) $35,336,605 28%
Residential (2) $822,161,915 32%
Farm (3A) $35,800 13%
Farm (3B) $0 0%
Commercial (4A) $27,200,103 19%
Industrial (4B) $0 0%
Apartment (4C) $0 0%
Public School Property (15A) $0 0%
Public Property (15C) $30,158,550 28%
Church/Charitable (15D) $1,408,502 9%
Other Exempt (15F) $4,750,100 14%
Total $921,051,575 31%
Net Taxable $884,734,423 32%
2050 SLR /1% Flood Scenario, Value
The Bottom Line▪ Exposed Net Taxable Value: $884.7 million▪ % of Total Value: 32%
Sea Bright Borough - Current
2050 SLR
2050/1% Storm
Property Class
(Class Code)
# of Exposed
Lots
Exposed
Acres
Vacant (1) 215 61
Residential (2) 885 86
Commercial (4A) 61 58
Apartment (4C) 4 2
Public Property (15C) 13 10
Church/Charitable (15D) 3 1
Other Exempt (15F) 2 1
Total 1,183 218
2050 SLR /1% Flood Scenario, Parcels
Total Exposed Lots: 1,183 % of Total Lots: 87% Total Exposed Acres: 218 % of Total Acres: 87%
The Bottom Line
Property Class
(Class Code)
Total exposed
value
% of Total
Improvement Value
Vacant (1) $11,753,556 79%
Residential (2) $238,714,941 65%
Commercial (4A) $46,617,541 90%
Apartment (4C) $2,725,049 84%
Public Property (15C) $12,593,857 93%
Church/Charitable (15D) $1,537,657 56%
Other Exempt (15F) $1,476,500 100%
Total $315,419,101 69%
Net Taxable Value $299,811,087 69%
Exposed Net Taxable Value: $300 million % of Total Value: 69%
2050 SLR /1% Flood Scenario, Value
The Bottom Line
Tuckerton Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
▪ Total Exposed Value: $224.4 million▪ % of Total Taxable Value: 50%▪ % of Total Area: 66%
The Bottom Line
Tuckerton Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
Highlands Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
▪ Total Exposed Value: $195 million▪ % of Total Taxable Value: 34%▪ % of Total Area: 41%
The Bottom Line
Highlands Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
Maurice River Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
▪ Total Exposed Value: $115 million▪ % of Total Taxable Value: 39%▪ % of Total Area: 21%
The Bottom Line
Maurice River Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
Commercial Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
▪ Total Exposed Value: $45.5 million▪ % of Total Taxable Value: 15%▪ % of Total Area: 34%
The Bottom Line
Commercial Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
The Age of Innocence is So Over!
1. Can we continue to develop areas at risk?
2. Can we allow areas that suffer repetitive loss to rebuild in place?
3. Will taxpayers throughout the country be
willing to subsidize risky behavior?
The Age of Innocence is So Over!
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again
and expecting different results
Time for a new approach