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Chris ThomasMedia MeasurementHow smart communicators can use traditional and social media analytics to drive competitive advantage
The Slow Death of Newspapers? (…and other media
trends)
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Introduction
A Press Communicator Perspective on Media Trends
This talk uses hard data to investigate the scale and speed of what is widely understood to be a decline in size and importance of traditional media (and a corresponding rise of social media).
There will be a 25 minute tour around trends in media consumption, composition and reach, capped with our view of 5 rising – possibly unexpected - media trends that communicators should have on their radars.
+Key QuestionsINTRODUCTION 3
How has the media landscape (for newspapers in particular) changed?
What has been the effect of web-based social technologies on the traditional media landscape?
What are the implications of these changes for communicators?
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Demographic TrendsTracking quantitative trend data around the consumption of various media types by age and socioeconomic class and an insight into the purposes - eg recommendation, validation, research - for which different channels are used
+Rising Importance of the InternetDEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 5
• While half of consumers read a newspaper most days, they are at least as likely to turn to the internet for information• As well as online news delivered via websites, contributing factors to falls in newspaper print sales include digital and audio / video media delivered via web apps, available via smartphones, netbooks / tablets and MP3 players, and the rise of freesheets like Metro• In this context, analysts suggest that newspaper readership is in fact healthy – and indicative of a strong core demand
SOURCE: GB TGI, BMRB Q4 (July-June), 2008
Agreement with newspaper lifestyle statements, by demographic sub-group, 2008
+Rising Importance of the InternetDEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 6
SOURCE: GB TGI, BMRB Q4 (July-June), 2008
Agreement with newspaper lifestyle statements, by demographic sub-group, 2008
• Younger age demographics and ABC1s are the most likely to make the internet their first port of call for information• For ABC1s, the inverse is true of television
+The Relevance of Rising Internet Use DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 7
Types of websites browsed for information purposes in the last three months, October 2008 and January 2009SOURCE: Ipsos MORI/Mintel
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+Demographics – Key TrendsDEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 8
CHANGING HABITS
CONSUMERS DEMAND
INNOVATION
AGE / CLASS TRENDS SLOW
DECLINE?
FROM A PUSH TO PULL NEWS
CULTURE
20% of consumers now say that they read no newspaper regularly, reflecting increasing choice and diversity in the media
Consumers are increasingly demanding of a wide range of content – a trends that aligns well with the ability of online editions to innovate by enabling curation tools, and creating audio-visual content
An aging and increasingly affluent population could arrest the speed and scale of disruption to newspaper sales (and readership)
Consumers are becoming more savvy about use of the internet to research issues of interest, to challenge and validate what they read about in media sources
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Newspaper TrendsTracking quantitative trend data about the penetration and commercial success of the national newspaper market in the UK
+Who Reads Newspapers? NEWSPAPER TRENDS 10
SOURCE: BMRB/Mintel
Regular newspaper readership, by gender, December 2008
• Despite plummeting sales, the sky isn’t falling: newspaper readership holds up well …however…• The importance of Sunday editions has declined• New newspaper markets are opening up in the form of free sheets and online editions
+Who Reads Newspapers? NEWSPAPER TRENDS 11
SOURCE: BMRB/Mintel
Regular newspaper readership, by age and socioeconomic class, December 2008
• Likelihood to read a national newspaper correlates with increasing age…however…• Free sheets seem to have taken a significant part of the market in the 25 – 34 bracket• And there is a surprisingly similar profile of readership between socio-economic classes…• …though consumption of online newspaper editions is very much a AB / C1 phenomenon
+Who Reads Newspapers? NEWSPAPER TRENDS 12
• National dailies have maintained readership over the past decade • Saturday editions have increased their popularity, and this has contributed to the significant decline in readership of Sunday titles• 20% of consumers read no newspapers regularly – a number that has increased over the past decade, but which corresponds to the size of sales decline
Type of newspaper regularly read, 1999-2008SOURCE: BMRB/Mintel
+How Rising Internet Use Impacts on Newspapers
NEWSPAPER TRENDS 13
SOURCE: Ipsos MORI/Mintel
Internet penetration at home/work/place of study or elsewhere, by demographic sub-group, 2003-09
+How Rising Internet Use Impacts on Newspapers
NEWSPAPER TRENDS 14
SOURCE: Ipsos MORI/Mintel
Internet penetration at home/work/place of study or elsewhere, by demographic sub-group, 2003-09
• Internet penetration rose steeply in the five years to July 2008 and continued that climb to October 2008 • Around eight in ten under-55s and ABC1s now have access. • Over-65s and DEs are least likely to be online, implying a mix of lack of interest and lack of means. • That said, their access is likely to continue to rise.
+…How Does Readership Relate to Sales?NEWSPAPER TRENDS 15
• There has been a steady and significant decline in average newspaper circulation per issue over a sustained period, which belies the generally “strong” impression given by readership surveys• This is because, while per-issue readership levels are declining, the number of readers over a year is rising• In other words, the habit of regularity is being eroded – this is having a significant impact on newspaper business viability
Trends in average circulation/issue for national daily and Sunday newspapers, 2003-09 (index)SOURCE: ABC/Mintel
+…How Does Readership Relate to Sales?NEWSPAPER TRENDS 16
• Projecting forward, the national newspaper market is in the grip of a seemingly irreversible decline, accelerated by increased channel diversity, especially from digital • However, as well as new challenges, technology has brought new opportunities for publishers to extend their brands into other formats• Mintel expects this trend to extend, “so that a newspaper should in effect be recognised as a multi-faceted product – in print, online, tailored emails, phone applications and whatever new developments there may be”
Total annual sales of national daily & Sunday newspapers, by volume, 2003-13 (index)SOURCE: WARC/Mintel
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Industry TrendsCovering market disruption by digital media and assumptions about the decline of newspapers
+Newspapers – Key TrendsNEWSPAPER TRENDS 18
MARKET DECLINE
INCREASED DIVERSITY
CONTENT INNOVATION
SUPPORTING A “SELF-SERVE”
CULTURE
The national newspaper market has continued its decline (15% circ drop between 2003 & 2008). Sunday populars are hit hardest, while qualities outperformed the rest of the market
The internet is important (current ratio of online:print readers is 10:1) – but also other innovations such as freesheets and “light” editions have also contributed to changed consumption and habits, and undermined traditional models of regular readership
The most successful newspaper online editions have developed value propositions clearly differentiated from other content available online, including web-unique and audio or video content
For publishers, innovation is key – especially in terms of “content curation” ie helping to ensure content is relevant to readers by virtue of geolocation, social network or other interest or preference
+Top Line TrendsMEDIA INDUSTRY TRENDS 19
Media competition for audiences has accelerated. Dominance by one single channel is a thing of the past – the decline in market share of any one single source is a natural outcome of media fragmentation
Fragmentation is one side of the coin, explosion is the other. Social media has unearthed a clear demand for the curation of content relevant to an individual’s interests. Newspapers are well placed to enable curation
Data shows newspaper publishers are benefiting from innovation, and from the internet – online editions are attracting more readers than print editions are losing
Despite expectation that print sales will continue to fall, newspapers will persist – though perhaps as multi-channel “brands”, distributing original content in print and through web sites, mobile apps and other such mechanisms
+Newspapers: The FutureNEWSPAPER TRENDS 20
DECLINE, BUT NOT DEATH
Sales are likely to continue to fall, but demographic trends should arrest the speed of decline
WEAKER PLAYERS SHAKEN OUT
Continued pressure on both circulation and advertising sales may shake one or more of the weaker players out of the market – popular tabloid press seems most vulnerable
INNOVATION WILL PAY
Innovative publishers, with owners willing and able to invest will perform best in the long term. The internet has already enabled print newspapers to do many things better (eg share price or event listings), and more innovations along similar lines will follow – watch in particular for visual journalism and initiatives leveraging open data
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5 Trends to Watch5 media industry trends that RBS communicators should have on their radar
+Shortening News CyclesTRENDS TO WATCH 22
WHAT?
Social media in general, as well as the various trends around content-on-demand, mobile and social search contribute to a huge disruption to the concept of the traditional ‘news cycle’
WHY?
Minimal barriers to entry for web publishing, weakened legal and ethical norms in social media dramatically shorten news cycles. Persistent content on the internet can mean assets or liabilities exist for years – “good days to bury bad news” no longer exist
WHEN?
Has been happening for some time, but few organisations are truly prepared for the new demands of a 24 / 7 / 365 news media
+The Death of Press ClippingsTRENDS TO WATCH 23
WHAT?
Decline of traditional clipping / scanned PDF model of press monitoring
WHY?
Partly monetary, driven by disruption of traditional clipping services by automated monitoring and scraping tools, and partly functional, driven by increasing utility of text analytic technology
WHEN?
Already happening – many companies have already successfully “gone electronic”. Organisational inertia is the main barrier
"I think that when it comes to press cuttings, I personally am strongly with you, that I cannot see a reason why you couldn't use electronic methods of doing this.” – Sir Gus O’Donnell, Cabinet Secretary
+Media Multi-taskingTRENDS TO WATCH 24
WHAT?
Media multitasking involves using TV, the web, radio, telephone, print, or any other media in conjunction with another. This behavior has emerged as increasingly common, especially among younger consumers
WHY?
Twitter has been a key driver of media multi-tasking – particularly as a ‘backchannel’ for discussion about TV or other real time events. The marketing opportunity is for cross-media advertising; the communications threat is to manage reputation in real-time in multiple channels
WHEN?
Already happening for TV programmes such as Newsnight, and professional conferences / events
+Rise of the “Influencer”TRENDS TO WATCH 25
WHAT?
Implementation of social dimension in web services – meaning that consumers are primarily served content that is recommended, linked or otherwise curated by their personal network. Some individuals embrace the role of curator – and hence influencer – more readily (and successfully) than others
WHY?
Partly as a reaction to attempts to “game” web search, and partly as a genuine attempt to improve relevance, and hence value of web services
WHEN?
Happening right now – some companies are faster to adjust than others
+Social Search, Mobile Media and GeolocationTRENDS TO WATCH 26
WHAT?
Implementation of social or location elements to web services – meaning that consumers are primarily served content that is relevant to their network, their physical location, or geographic areas of interest
WHY?
Again, primarily to improve the relevance and value of web services. Particularly interesting in the context of the dramatically rising use of web-enabled mobile devices
WHEN?
Geolocation applications like Foursquare have been in existence for some time, and geolocation is starting to find its way into deal, discount and recommendation sites online
