Magellan Strategies NMA EPA Regulation Survey Summary 061114

JUNE 11th, 2014 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: EPA EMISSIONS REGULATION SURVEY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ________________________________________________________________________ This memorandum is a summary of eight automated voice recorded surveys among likely 2014 general election voters in Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana and North Carolina. The surveys were fielded from June 4th to June 8th, and the margin of error for the surveys range from +/- 3.45% to 3.65% at the 95% confidence level. The surveys measured voter opinion of the newly proposed EPA carbon emissions regulation, as well as how information about the proposal impacts voter opinion. EPA Regulation Survey Project Summary The eight states for this research project were chosen for two reasons. First, they are all coal states (i.e. significant producers and/or consumers); voters within these states are much more sensitive to the potential economic impacts of EPA regulations than voters in other states. These voters have a greater concern for and understanding of the EPA proposal’s impacts within their state and local economies and job markets. The second reason these eight states were chosen is they all have competitive US Senate elections this year, and the proposed EPA regulation is expected to be an issue this election cycle. The relevant question for political observers is to what extent the proposed EPA regulation helps or harms a US Senate candidate. These surveys attempt to shed some light on that question. Key Findings:

Ø Initial impressions of the EPA proposal find an average of 37.3% of likely voters supporting the proposal, 47.1% opposing the proposal and 15.6% of voters not having an opinion about the proposal.

Ø An average of 55.2% of respondents are more likely to oppose a candidate

for the US Senate that supports the new emission regulation, 31.4% are more likely to support a candidate that supports the regulation, and 13.4% are unsure or do not have an opinion after hearing information about the EPA proposal.

Magellan Strategies NMA EPA Emissions Regulation Survey Executive Summary

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Ø When voters were informed of EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy’s quote that there will be a “short term hit” to consumers, an average of 59.1% of respondents were more likely to oppose the proposal, 17.9% were more likely to support it, and 20.2% responded it made no difference in their decision to support or oppose the proposal.

Ø When voters are informed that the EPA proposal would require 50 states to

meet their carbon emission target limits through state-based cap and trade, tax and regulatory programs, an average of 48.8% of respondents are more likely to oppose the proposal, 22.2% are more likely to support it, and 24.0% responded that it made no difference in their decision to support or oppose the proposal.

Ø When voters are informed the US Chamber of Commerce found that a

similar carbon emissions proposal would result in the loss of 224,000 jobs each year through 2030, and cost $50 billion to the economy, an average of 62.2% of respondents are more likely to oppose the proposal, 13.2% are more likely to support it, and the information made no difference to 21.1% of respondents.

Ø An average of 76% of voters believe it is more important for President

Obama to be focusing his time and attention on creating jobs and growing the economy than creating a new regulation for power plants to combat climate change.

Initial Voter Opinion of the EPA Emissions Proposal The survey measured voter opinion of the EPA proposal based on what they have seen, read and heard prior to informing voters about details of the proposal. The survey found a majority of voters opposed the EPA proposal in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Montana, and a plurality of voters opposed the proposal in Arkansas, Colorado, and Georgia. In Michigan, a plurality of voters support the proposal, and in North Carolina support and opposition to the proposal is even, with 42% supporting and opposing the proposal.




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After measuring initial impressions of the EPA proposal, respondents were informed about details of the proposal to understand how the information impacted their support or opposition to the proposal. The following graphs show the survey results for each statement.




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Survey Conclusions Although there are differences in voter opinion about the EPA regulatory proposal on a state-by-state basis, it is clear that any candidate who supports the proposal is taking a risk among likely 2014 election voters. The introduction of this carbon emission regulation by the Obama Administration does not make this election cycle any easier for the Democrat candidates and incumbents in these eight states. Survey Commissioned By The National Mining Association, the national trade group representing the US mining industry, commissioned this survey research project. Survey Methodology The surveys for this research project were conducted using automated voice recorded technology. The sample for each state was randomly drawn from a voter file. The results were weighted based upon past voting demographics of the non-Presidential voting population for each state. Any questions regarding the methodology of this survey should be directed to David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at [email protected] or 303-861-8585. About Magellan Strategies Magellan Strategies is a full-service survey research firm offering quantitative, qualitative, and predictive data modeling services to Republican candidates, campaigns and trade associations.

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Magellan Strategies NMA EPA Regulation Survey Summary 061114