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Public services: to the future and beyond Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

• 09/05/2012 ben.page@ipsos.com

benatipsosmori

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A few of the challenges

• Debt crisis • Aging population, inflation • Rising expectations • Difficult politics • Massive differences in productivity between

public and private sector • Need for “Amazon” paradigm

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So far so good

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12%

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Only one in three think government will improve public services

Base: 1,016 British adults 18+, 9 – 11 June 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

6%

Agree

Do you agree or disagree… “In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s public services”

Don't know

Disagree Net = -32

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22

-18

-34

-2

-28

-13

-29

0

-10

-32

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

% net agree

Do you agree or disagree… “In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s public services”

2005 General Election (May 05)

Cameron elected (Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

2001 General Election (Jun 01)

2010 General Election; Cameron as PM

(May 10)

But always pretty negative!

Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

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-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

Thinking about the NHS/quality of education/way your area is policed over the next few years do you expect it to get much better, get worse, stay the same, get worse or get much worse?

Pessimism about NHS and policing increasing

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

% net better

Education

Policing NHS

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What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

“The economy stupid” – blights everything

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Unemployment

NHS

Crime/ Law & Order

Race / immigration

Economy

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Hysteresis

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A year of youth unemployment reduces earnings 10 years later by about 6% and means that individuals spend an extra month unemployed every year up to their mid-30s. These effects diminish slowly in later adult life but are still present well into peoples' 40s..

Professor Paul Gregg and Lindsey Macmillan, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16156849

“ ”

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23

43

42

45

35

12

% Higher % Lower

November 2011

April 2003

Q. When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality of life than you, or about the same?

A new world – where we expect our children to have a lower quality of life than us

Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

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Q Which one of these sentences do you agree with the most?

Although maybe we shouldn’t underestimate our young people?

Base: 2757 11-16 year olds Source: Ipsos MORI Young People Omnibus (January – April 2012)

84%

5% 9%

3%

It doesn’t matter what background you’re from,

anyone can be a success in life if they try hard enough

It doesn’t matter how hard you try, you’ll only be successful in life if you’re from the right background

Not stated Neither of these

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We still don’t agree on what kind of society we

want to be

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58 57 51

49 49 42 43

49

51 51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

People have different views about the ideal society. For each of these statements, please tell me which one comes closest to your ideal.

Perceptions of the ideal society are changing – but slowly

Base: c. 1,000 British adults – repercentaged to exclude don’t knows Source: Ipsos MORI

% A society where individuals are encouraged to look after themselves

A society which emphasises the social and collective

provision of welfare

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To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements:

Many think government has done too much, but worry about the vulnerable is increasing

Base: c500 British adults, 9 – 11 June 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI

June ‘12

May ‘10

June ‘12

May ‘10

32

31

30

19

33

33

38

31

15

13

14

19

8

7

5

8

% Strongly Agree % Agree % Disagree Strongly Disagree

In recent years government and public services have tried to do too much, and people should take more responsibility for their own lives (Base: 515)

I am worried that government and public services will do too little to help people in the years ahead (Base: 490)

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“There’s no money left”

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40 43

49

58 57 59 56

48 44

46 51

44 45

35 37 32 33

41 43 44

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9 Au

g-09

Se

p-09

O

ct-0

9 N

ov-0

9 D

ec-0

9 Ja

n-10

Fe

b-10

M

ar-1

0 Ap

r-10

M

ay-1

0 Ju

n-10

Ju

l-10

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-

11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1 Au

g-11

Se

p-11

O

ct-1

1 N

ov-1

1 D

ec-1

1 Ja

n-12

Fe

b-12

M

ar-1

2 Ap

r-12

M

ay-1

2 Ju

n-12

Agree

Disagree

“There is a real need to cut spending on public services in order to pay off the deficit”

A country divided over its deficit

Base: c. British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

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Five principles from the Open Public Services White Paper: 1. Choice and control 2. Decentralisation 3. Diversity 4. Fairness 5. Accountability

As the fiscal pressures intensify, it has also become increasingly evident that we cannot hope to provide the needed improvements in public services by spending yet more money on them. The case for radical reform has therefore become even stronger over the last six months.

Oliver Letwin MP Danny Alexander MP

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41%

9%

39%

10%

Good thing

Won't make a difference

Bad thing

Don't know

Do you think the government’s plans for a Big Society are a good thing or a bad thing for your local area?

More now think Big Society is a good thing for their local area

Base: 1,016 British adults, 9 – 11 June 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

46%

12%

37%

5%

February 2011 June 2012

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The government is very keen on behaviour change, using it on organ donation and in letters from HMRC…..

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“If a man sees a fly, he aims at it”

“Spillage was down by 80%...”

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The challenge for politicians and leaders in public services:

be brave and try new things

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In conclusion - change is coming

• Public accepts need for cuts in spending – to various degrees • Doesn’t appreciate implications • The public hate politicians but like the state when they need it: conservative about changes in delivery

• Can we nudge people into being pro-social? • As the state shrinks, what positive catalyst will there be for more involvement in deprived areas?

• The crisis gives us the opportunity to have a debate • New technology really does create huge opportunity: digital by default

• Requires leadership to overcome “loss aversion” • Good luck!

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Thank you

© Ipsos MORI This work will be carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006 and with the Ipsos MORI Terms and Conditions which can be found here