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On January 23, 2013, Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, delivered this presentation to YPFP in Washington, DC. Here’s the blurb for his talk: Our experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, growing dangers in cyberspace, and modern terrorist and criminal threats all suggest the same thing: our national security depends on the ability of disparate parts of government to come together to confront increasingly complex networked threats. The relatively straight forward days of the Cold War have yielded to a much more challenging threat environment of non-state global actors. Yet the military, intelligence community, and law enforcement agencies have not yet fully adapted to the new reality. It is time for a new national security vision. A vision predicated on building networks to defeat networks. The Department of Defense and the Defense Intelligence Agency are both in a key transition period. These two institutions—and indeed, the entire Nation—have been embroiled in conflict for more than a decade against enemies that are both resilient and adaptive. The need for “on-demand,” accurate, responsive intelligence has grown as have the technologies and methods for collection and analysis. In the foreseeable future, the pace of change will continue to accelerate. In this climate, we must reflect on past lessons while looking to emerging challenges to adapt. We must find ways to be increasingly integrated and collaborative and remain sufficiently adaptable and flexible to understand and respond to an increasing number of threats.
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LTG Michael T. Flynn, USADirector
23 January 2013
C O M M I T T E D T O E X C E L L E N C E I N D E F E N S E O F T H E N A T I O N
One Mission. One Team. One Agency.UNCLASSIFIED
“When you’re riding a dead horse, the best thing to do is to dismount”
However, in Washington DC, we often try other strategies:
• Buying a stronger whip
• Changing riders
• Saying things like: “This is the way we’ve always ridden the horse”
• Appointing a committee to study the horse
• Increasing the standards to ride the dead horse
• Appointing a “tiger team” to revive the dead horse
• Changing the requirements & declaring that “this horse is not dead!”
• Hiring contractors to ride the dead horse
• Harnessing several dead horses together for increased speed
• Declaring that “No horse is too dead to beat!”
And finally,
Promoting the dead horse to a supervisory position
Washington Tribal Folklore
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The Defense Intelligence Agency
VISION: One team of skilled professionals providing our
military and national security leadership with timely intelligence.
PRIORITIES:
• Defense Clandestine Service
• Reshaping Defense Analysis
• Recruiting, Retention and Professional Development
MISSION: DIA is first in all-source defense intelligence to prevent
strategic surprise and deliver decision advantage to warfighters,
defense planners and policymakers.
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YESTERDAY:Traditional, hierarchical,
regional, centralized, weeks
and months, worked well in structured
environments, information is discrete
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TODAY:Fluid and complex, transnational, hybrid,
decentralized, distributed, crowd-sourced, days
and minutes, multi-nodal, difficult to discern,
smaller window for decisions
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The imperative to change
“We‟re transitioning from a decade of war, a complex
and uncertain security environment looms, and as we
look toward the future each service in our total joint
force faces fundamental questions about their
identities, their roles, and their capabilities.”
- General Martin Dempsey, CJCS
Joint Warfighting Conference 2012
Intelligence must remain a strategic advantage for our nation
Lessons learned from a decade of war demand it:
• Gain a more thorough understanding of the cultures and environments in which we operate
• Recognize shortfall of spies contributed to ignoring tribal and cultural realities
• Implement strategy to meet military intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) needs
• Increase importance of Cyberwarfare capabilities, ISR, and undersea systems
• Increase access to expeditionary ISR platforms
• Promote the fusion of information and reduce compartmentalization of intelligence
• Improve training to enable focused, intelligence driven operations
• Introduce new legislation to bolster interagency ties
- CJCS Enduring Lessons, Vol 1 June 2012
http://www.blogs.defensenews.com
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Amid profound transition...
Winding Down Direct Combat Roles
Rebalance toward Asia-Pacific
Aspiring Regional Peer Competitors
Anti-Access/Area Denial Challenges
Cyber Operations
Arab Awakening
Economic Uncertainty
“When the rate of change outside
is faster than the rate of change inside…
the end is near.”
- Former GE chairman Jack Welch
“Even if you are on the right track,
you will be run over if you just sit there.”
- Will Rogers
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Do we understand the change
WORLD POPULATION
1950
3.4 BILLION
2000
6.1 BILLION
2020
7.6 BILLION(Estimated)
SO WHAT:• Lack of arable land, access to
food, water, and energy at risk
• Unstable governments struggling
to provide for their people
• Resource competition driving
social unrest
• The rise of transnational
groups expanding
WHAT:“Asia and Africa will account
for most of the population growth
out to 2025…the „youngest‟
countries, where under-30
represents 60% of the
population or more, will…
be in Sub-Saharan Africa.”
- National Intelligence Council
Global Trends 2025
SOURCE: UN Data
2030
8.3 BILLION(Estimated)
UNCLASSIFIED
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INFORMATION REVOLUTION
WHAT:“A new set of social actors—
super-empowered individuals
and even criminal networks...
empowered by their wealth and
an array of national and
transnational contacts…
help leverage „transnational‟
outcomes across national and
organizational boundaries.”
Global Trends 2025
SO WHAT:• Technology and the cloud
provide the crowd a voice
• The network is the new`
weapon system
• Bandwidth is the new class of supply
• Data is our ammunition
In 2005*…Facebook did not exist for most
Twitter was still a sound
The cloud was in the sky
4G was a parking space
Applications went to colleges
LinkedIn was a prison
By 2020…the number of
Internet users
is expected to
double to over
4 billion
*Information taken from That Used to be Us, by Thomas Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum
Today214 Jihadists are
using Twitter
One has over
53,000 followers
Do we understand the change
UNCLASSIFIED
In 1980First 24/7 news network
IBM’s PC still under
development
Mobile phone network
in its infancy
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Why we must succeed
• Prevent strategic surprise
• Understand rising regional ‘near-peer’ competitors
• Overcome Anti-Access/Area Denial strategies
• Counter enduring extremist threats
• Ensure decision advantage / confidence
• Weather fiscal uncertainty
Defense Intelligence Agency
You cannot fight, wage, or win war without us
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Thoughts on
Strategic Leadership
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Your organization – what you control
Your environment – what you don’t control
Your output – how you take control
Ability to see yourself, your environment, and your ability to make a difference
Flynn’s Model on Strategic Leadership
Understanding
KnowledgeInnovateImplement
Lead
Strategic and Political Framework
Self:Visualization
CultureValues
Key components
• Moral courage
• Teamwork
(give credit to others)
• Have an ability to compromise
• Winning spirit
• Loyalty up/down/laterally
• Compassion (time of crisis)
• Energy is a combat multiplier
• Understand up/down
(outside / inside)
• Need to do versus nice to do
• Outreach (private, intel,
media, public)
• Teach, coach, mentor
Self: your values and beliefs
Work environment: what you create
How you create output
UNCLASSIFIED
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Flynn’s Model on Strategic Leadership (Self)
Be a lifelong learner
Humility at the senior most levels of command is important –
no matter how senior you get, it is not about you…but the mission
We should be unapologetic about our values
Things to remember:• Trust – Can you trust too much?
• Teach, coach and mentor – Why is this important?
• Communicate creatively – Writing, editing, reaching out
• Squint with your ears – “I never learned anything while I was
talking”
• Avoid the role of chief problem solver – “Never tell people how to
do things. Tell them what needs doing and they will surprise you
with their ingenuity” George Patton
Understanding
Knowledge
Strategic and Political Framework
Self:
Visualization
Culture
Values
UNCLASSIFIED
Innovate
Lead
Implement
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Managing / balancing time: Yours and your staff’s
Trust and harmony – If you cannot create these conditions,
you just might fail
Building a robust brain trust – Who do you include?
Clones, cronies, trusted agents, agents of change?
Things to remember:
• Use humor well
• Be decisive and exude confidence
• Maintain open-mindedness –
Flexibility versus inflexibility
• Observe yourself – How do others see you?
• Give power away and make it stick
• Be generous and magnanimous –
What does servant leadership mean?
Understanding
Knowledge
Strategic and Political Framework
Self:
Visualization
Culture
Values
Flynn’s Model on Strategic Leadership (Environment)
UNCLASSIFIED
Innovate
Lead
Implement
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Flynn’s Model on Strategic Leadership (Desired Outcomes)
Relationships between commanders at Combined/Joint levels
matter – This is what accomplishes the mission
Institutions get what they reward – Look for ideas elsewhere,
we may not have the best ideas
Dempsey Doctrine: When you ask for guidance and get
none, you should be prepared to say, “Unless otherwise directed,
I’m going to execute X”
The single biggest deficiency of senior leaders is lack of reflection
time – Instead we are reactive and tend to get “contained”
At every possible point along the path your career takes
you, reenergize your leadership capabilities
Understanding
Knowledge Innovate
Lead
Strategic and Political Framework
Self:
Visualization
Culture
Values
UNCLASSIFIED
Implement
18C O M M I T T E D T O E X C E L L E N C E I N D E F E N S E O F T H E N A T I O N
One Mission. One Team. One Agency.
DIA is the indispensible element of the military dimension
of our national security posture
Questions
UNCLASSIFIED