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Mufi Hannemann released internal polling numbers showing he still holds a large lead over Tulsi Gabbard in the race for Congress.
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2nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
STUDY
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BACKGROUND & METHODOLOGY
A total of 407 interviews were conducted among registered voters in the U.S. 2nd
Congressional District beginning on June 14, 2012 and ending on June 16, 2012. 173
interviews were conducted among Oahu 2nd Congressional District voters while 108
were done on the Big Island. 88 surveys were conducted among voters in Maui County
while Kauai accounted for 38 surveys.
The margin of error for a sample of this size (n=407) is +/- 4.90 percentage points with a
95% confidence level.
The survey respondents for this study were selected from a sample derived from a
listing purchased from Labels & Lists (formerly Voter Contact) augmented by QMark’s
Random Digit Dialing software. 51% of the surveys were conducted among landline
phones while the remaining 49% were conducted among wireless phone users.
QMark Research’s professional interviewers were used to conduct this survey. All
interviews were conducted from QMark’s in-house calling center where up to three
attempts were made to reach a voter at each of the telephone numbers in the sample.
The call attempts included a weeknight, and weekend day and evening to ensure we
reached 2nd district voters that would represent a valid cross-section of the district’s
voters.
Each respondent was asked screening questions to ensure they were a current
registered voter in the 2nd congressional district and that they intended to vote in the
upcoming primary.
The demographics of the voters whose opinions are shown in the data of this report
replicate as much as possible the actual demographics of 2nd district voters for
geographic distribution, gender, age and ethnicity. A table showing this respondent
profile is within the report. A complete questionnaire is included in the Appendix to this
document.
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DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Registered voters from the 2nd Congressional District were asked if the Democratic
Primary were held today and the candidates were Mufi Hannemann, Tulsi Gabbard,
Esther Kiaaina, Bob Marx, Miles Shiratori and Rafael del Castillo whom would they
likely support.
The table below breaks down the results for voters who indicated they will likely select
the democratic ballot in the upcoming primary election or are undecided which ballot
they will select.
June 2012
Hannemann 42%
Gabbard 26%
Marx 8%
Kiaaina 2%
del Castillo 0%
Shiratori 0%
Don’t know 17%
Refused 3%
BASE 312
If the Primary Election for the 2nd Congressional district were held today Mufi
Hannemann would lead the race with 42% of the vote. Tulsi Gabbard trails by 16-
percentage points garnering 26% of the vote. None of the other competitors receives
support from over 10% of this voting segment.
The table below breaks down the results from above by geography, gender, and
ideology.
SAMPLE GENDER IDEOLOGY
Oahu N.I. Male Female Dem Indep Rep
Hannemann 45% 40% 38% 46% 48% 37% 33%
Gabbard 33% 20% 31% 22% 22% 33% 28%
Marx 6% 11% 10% 6% 9% 5% 26%
Kiaaina 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% -
del Castillo - 0% 0% - 0% - -
Shiratori 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% -
Don’t know 11% 22% 16% 18% 3% 5% -
Refused 3% 4% 1% 6% 15% 18% 13%
BASE 134 178 157 155 192 91 11
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Degree of Support
In this section of the study supporters of each candidate were asked to rate the degree
to which they backed their candidate.
Hannemann n=130
Gabbard n=80
Other n=39
Strongly support 44% 37% 32%
Somewhat support 32% 32% 35%
Could change 25% 29% 29%
Don’t know - 3% 4%
The support for Mufi Hannemann is slightly stronger at this point compared to Tulsi
Gabbard though there is definite room for movement from now till the election.
Core Voters
In this section of the study we examine the results from a slightly different perspective.
The table below highlights the race filtering the results to show only those who said they
will select the Democratic ballot in the upcoming Primary Election and have voted in all
or most of the elections since they’ve been eligible.
June 2012
Hannemann 45%
Gabbard 27%
Marx 9%
Kiaaina 1%
del Castillo -
Shiratori -
Don’t know 14%
Refused 4%
BASE 166
When the results under this scenario are examined we find Hannemann leading
Gabbard by 18-percentage points, 45% to 27%. Among those Democratic voters,
Hannemann leads among males, 43% to 27%, among females 48% to 26%, among
Oahu voters 48% to 34%, and among Neighbor Island voters 44% to 21%.
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Favorability Score
In this section of the research registered voters were asked to rate their general
perceptions of the five candidates for the 2nd Congressional District. They were asked if
they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. The table below provides a recap
of the candidates tested. The column at the far right highlights each individual’s
favorability ratio or the number of favorable responses for every one unfavorable
response.
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never Heard of
Ratio Fav:Unfav
Hannemann 51% 29% 18% 1% 1.75:1
Gabbard 42% 10% 32% 16% 4.20:1
Marx 17% 12% 37% 33% 1.41:1
Kiaaina 9% 7% 23% 61% 1.28:1
del Castillo 4% 7% 14% 74% .57:1
Shiratori 3% 7% 12% 76% .42:1
Crowley 6% 6% 17% 71% 1.00:1
DiGeronimo 3% 7% 11% 79% .42:1
Half (51%) the voters in the 2nd Congressional District has a favorable opinion of Mufi
Hannemann. Twenty-nine percent has an unfavorable opinion of Mufi Hannemann. Of
the remainder, 18% have no opinion of him while just 1% has never heard of him.
Hannemann’s favorability ratio stands at 1.75 favorable responses for every one
unfavorable response.
Forty-two percent have a favorable opinion of Gabbard while just 10% have an
unfavorable opinion of her. A third (32%) has no opinion of Gabbard while 16% have
never heard of the candidate. Her favorability ratio stands at 4.20 favorable responses
for every one unfavorable response.
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PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS
OVERALL
AREA
Oahu B.I. Maui Kauai
45% 25% 21% 9%
VOTING HISTORY
All/ Most Some/ Few 1
st Time Voter
80% 18% 1%
AGE
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ MEAN
13% 21% 39% 24% 53.79
PRIMARY BALLOT
Democrat Republican Other Don’t know
68% 18% 4% 10%
IDEOLOGY
Democrat Republican Independent
58% 16% 31%
UNION HOUSEHOLD 25%
ETHNICITY
Caucasian Japanese Hawaiian Filipino Other
28% 28% 18% 13% 10%
GENDER
Male Female
49% 51%
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APPENDIX
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2012 Primary Poll June 2012
Hello I’m___________ from QMark Research. We’re doing a survey this evening/today about an issue important to residents of your area and I’d like to ask you just a few short questions.
A. Are you registered to vote at this address?
1 Yes 2 No (IF NO, ASK IF ANYONE ELSE IN HOUSEHOLD IS REGISTERED TO VOTE, IF NO – THANK AND TERMINATE INTERVIEW)
As you may know, Hawaii will hold an election in 2012 to elect a US Representative from the 2nd Congressional District. I’d like you to think ahead to that election and answer just a few questions…
B. In the primary election to be held in August of 2012, would you say _____ (xx) you say you are certain to vote, that you will probably vote, or that something could happen to keep you from voting?
(IF ANSWER “SOMETHING COULD HAPPEN TO KEEP ME FROM VOTING”, THANK AND TERMINATE INTERVIEW)
1 Certain to vote2 Will probably vote 3 Something could happen to keep you from voting
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1. I am going to read you a list of some prominent individuals in our state. As I read each name, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each person. If you have heard of the person but don’t know enough about him or her to have an opinion, or if you have never heard of the person, just tell me.
(ROTATE ORDER OF NAMES)
1= Favorable 2= Unfavorable 3= No opinion 4= Never heard of
1 Tulsi Gabbard _____ (xx)
2 Mufi Hannemann _____ (xx)
3 Rafael del Castillo _____ (xx)
4 Esther Kiaaina _____ (xx)
5 Bob Marx _____ (xx)
6 Kawika Crowley _____ (xx)
7 Matthew DiGeronimo _____ (xx)
8 Miles Shiratori _____ (xx)
2. If the primary election to select a Democratic candidate to run _____ (xx) for US Representative from the 2nd Congressional District, your district, was held tomorrow and the candidates were Rafael del Castillo, Tulsi Gabbard, Mufi Hannemann, Esther Kiaaina, Bob Marx and Miles Shiratori, for whom would you vote? (IF NOT SURE, ASK:) Toward whom do you lean at this time?
1 Rafael del Castillo 2 Tulsi Gabbard 3. Mufi Hannemann 4. Esther Kiaaina 4. Bob Marx 5. Miles Shiratori 6 [DON’T KNOW/NOT SURE]
7 [REFUSED]
2a. And do you strongly support ___________, somewhat support him/her or could something happen between now and the election to cause you to change your mind?
1 Strongly support him/her 2 Somewhat support him/her 3 Something could happen between now and the election
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And now, I have a few last questions for classification purposes.
D1. In the elections held since you’ve been old enough to vote, _____ (xx) would you say you have voted in all of them, most of them, some of them or just a few of them?
1 All of them 2 Most of them 3 Some of them 4 Just a few
5 (FIRST TIME VOTER) 9 (DON’T KNOW)
D2. Would you probably select to vote on the Democratic or Republican _____ (xx) ballot in this 2012 primary election?
1 Democratic ballot 2 Republican ballot 3 Some other ballot 4 (DON’T KNOW WHICH BALLOT I WILL SELECT)
D3. Which of the following best describes you… _____ (xx)
1 Strong Democrat 2 Leaning Democrat
3 Independent 4 Leaning Republican 5 Strong Republican 6 (DON’T KNOW/REFUSED)
D4 Are you or is anyone living in your household a member _____ (xx) of a labor union?
1 Yes 2 No
D5. What was your age on your last birthday? (RECORD ACTUAL AGE) _____ (xx)
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D6. What is your ethnic identification? (IF MORE THAN ONE ASK:) _____ (xx) With which do you identify the most? (IF NO CHOICE, MARK “MIXED”)
1 Caucasian 2 Japanese 3 Chinese 4 Filipino 5 Hawaiian/part Hawaiian 6 African-American 7 Other (SPECIFY) _____________ 8 Mixed 9 (REFUSED)
D7. What is your residential zip code? _____________ (xx)
[IF REFUSED ZIPCODE '99999' & ISLAND = OAHU, ASK]
D7A. Which of the following areas of the island would you say you reside in?
1 Central Oahu 2 Leeward Oahu 3 Windward Oahu 4 North Shore
[IF REFUSED ZIPCODE '99999' & ISLAND = BIG ISLAND, ASK] D7B. Would you say you live in the Hilo or Kona district?
1 Hilo 2 Kona
D8. (RECORD DO NOT ASK) Gender 1 = Male 2 = Female _____(xx)
May I have your first name, in case my office needs to verify that I completed this interview? Those are all the questions I have, thank you for your help with our study. �
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