what are we trading away?
glyn moody
the new "trade" deals
lack of progress of Doha round of WTO talks (2001)actually
emerging economies trying to correct pro-Western bias of Uruguay
round of WTO talks (1994)
Western countries and companies have taken new tack
replace multilateral consensus by plurilateral "club"
agreements
TPP, CETA, TTIP, (TISA)
TPP
TPP - Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement
started 2005 - Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore
2008 - Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, the
United States, and Vietnam joined
negotiations concluded 5 October 2015
2016 battle over ratification
TPP by numbers
basic text is 6,194 pages long30 chapters; 48 annexes; "related
instruments" and "side chapters"
negotiated in secret, so first time public saw complete text 5
November 2015
key feature of new "trade" dealssecret while negotiated
set in stone once released
effectively, no public input
CETA
Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between EU and
Canada
negotiations began May 2008, "concluded" August 2014new Canadian
government means discussions still continuing
*tiny* benefits: after 7 years, 0.08% boost to EU GDP, 0.77% to
Canadian GDP (EU-CA study, 2007)
TTIP
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnershipbegan June
2013
between EU and USnarrows plurilateral approach to bilateral
agreement
complements TPP
goes beyond TPP, moves even further from classic trade deals
TTIP's benefits
central justification is that TTIP will boost EU and US
economies "for free"
CEPR study predicts boost of 119 billion (EU), 95 billion
(US)"ambitious scenario"
GDP boost in 2027, after 10 years
actually 0.05% extra GDP/year
as with CETA, close to zero
*no* estimate of costs or risks
risks for EU agriculture
European Parliament study (2014)"some EU sectors could face
serious competition"
"disadvantaged by the extra costs involved in complying with EU
regulations"
"EU constraints on the use of genetically modified organisms
(GMOs), on pesticide use, and on food safety measures in the meat
sector"
risks for SME EU farms (I)
Elbieta Biekowska,Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship
and SMEs (2015)"SMEs must be at the heart of TTIP"
no estimate of risks for SMEs
German Association of Green Business report (2016)"Risks for
small and medium enterprises in the Agriculture and Food
Industry"
risks for SME EU farms (II)
small, family-run EU farms unable to compete with US
mega-farms
higher costs from higher animal welfare in EUUS use of EU-banned
hormones (BST, ractopamine)
higher costs from lower pesticide use US levels 500 times
higher
widespread use of cheaper *patented* GMO crops in US
benefits for agriculture I
study from US Department of Agriculture (November 2015)
"classic" TTIP trade agreementUS exports to EU +$5.5 billion
EU exports to US +$0.8 billion
global agriculture tradeUS exports +2%, imports +1%
EU exports -0.25%, imports +0.5%
benefits for agriculture II
"new style" TTIP trade agreementUS exports to EU +$9.6
billion
EU exports to US +$2 billion
global agriculture tradeUS exports +4%, imports +2%
EU exports "decline", imports +1%
"new style" = removing "non-tariff barriers"
non-tariff barriers (NTBs)
removal of NTBs central to TTIP's claimed benefits
CEPR study paid for by European Commission
analysed GDP boost
20% of TTIP's claimed GDP boost comes from removing
tariffsexisting tariffs 3% on average
80% comes from removing non-tariff barriers
NTBs = regulations
different regulations in EU, UShealth, safety, environment,
labour, finance
many of the key non-tariff barriers are agricultural bansBST
growth hormones for beef
ractopamine in pigs
bans on GMOs
chlorine washing of chickens
US wants to remove all these
EU regulations = EU culture
codification of European farming traditionscultural expressions
of Europe
the way we want to grow our food
welfare enhancing for EU citizenswe benefit from their
existence
fruits of democracyexpressions of collective will
for TTIP: "trade irritants"
tackling NTBs
levelling down EU says no
levelling up US says no
mutual recognitionchemicals in cosmetics1300 ingredients banned
in EU
11 ingredients banned in US
1289 chemicals banned in EU could be used in US products sold
here
future convergence
regulatory chapter
new regulatory acts must involvestakeholder consultations
impact assessments
Regulatory Co-operation Body
important new opportunities for lobbying and legal
challenges
effectively a ratchet on regulations weakening them
gives big companies huge power to shape rules of business &
society
ISDS
investor-state dispute settlementsecret tribunal of three
lawyers
no limits to awards, no appeals
Philip Morris sued Australia and lost, still suing Uruguay, over
tobacco reduction measures
Eli Lilly suing Canada over drug patent requirements
chilling effect on new legislation
ISDS in EU
127 ISDS cases brought against EU countries since 1994; 30
billion claims, 3.5 billion awards (67)
TTIP: 20,000 US companies (50,000 subsidiaries) able to sue
EU+MS
ISDS coversall *existing* investments
copyright and patents (ratchet)
so bad, EU proposing Investment Court System (ICS) to replace
it
ISDS in Poland
one of the worst hit by ISDS casesparty to more than 60
agreements with ISDS provisions
16 known cases filed against it
12 billion sought
2.2 billion paid out so far
among the most frequent target of US claims using 1990 BIT1
year's notice to terminate
TTIP's locks and ratchets
regulatory "harmonisation", ISDS
locks and ratchets designed to constrain a signatory
government's future actionsforce moves towards deregulation
only consider impact on companies
render public views irrelevant
not just undermining democracy, but *bypassing* it
what are we trading away?
trading local small-scale, family-farm food production
trading away EU-style agriculture
trading away EU's internal marketUSDA: "decrease in overall EU
agricultural exports largely attributable to a reduction in
intra-EU trade"
trading away European culture
trading away democracy
trading away ourselves
[email protected]
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