FUTURE OF FUTURE OF CIVILIZATIONS: CIVILIZATIONS:

PROSPECTS & PROSPECTS & CHALLENGESCHALLENGES

CLASH OF CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS?CIVILIZATIONS?

SSamuel P. Huntingtonamuel P. Huntington (born (born April 18, 1927)April 18, 1927)• A political scientist & professor at Harvard A political scientist & professor at Harvard

University.University.• 1960s, published “Political Order in Changing 1960s, published “Political Order in Changing

Societies”.Societies”.• 1993, incited a major debate following his 1993, incited a major debate following his

article, article, “The Clash of Civilizations?”“The Clash of Civilizations?” published published in the journal in the journal Foreign AffairsForeign Affairs..

• Expanded into a full-length book, “Expanded into a full-length book, “The Clash The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World of Civilizations and the Remaking of World OrderOrder”.”.

• The theory of The theory of the clash of civilizationsthe clash of civilizations::

1. 1. the world will experience and witness the world will experience and witness cultural conflicts along cultural and religious cultural conflicts along cultural and religious lines. lines.

– – conflicts between civilizations rather than conflicts between civilizations rather than nations or ideologies.nations or ideologies.

- Faith and family , blood and belief, are what - Faith and family , blood and belief, are what people identify with and what they will fight people identify with and what they will fight and die for.and die for.

2. Divides the world into seven/eight major 2. Divides the world into seven/eight major civilizations (based on religion, civilizations (based on religion, geographical proximity and language):geographical proximity and language):

• Western ChristendomWestern Christendom• Latin AmericaLatin America• OrthodoxOrthodox• Islamic civilizationIslamic civilization• Hindu civilizationHindu civilization• Sinic civilizationSinic civilization• Japanese civilizationJapanese civilization• Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

3. Sinic and Islamic civilizations - future threats to 3. Sinic and Islamic civilizations - future threats to the West. the West.

“ “With the challenger civilizations, Islam and With the challenger civilizations, Islam and China, the West is likely to have consistently China, the West is likely to have consistently strained and often highly antagonistic relations” strained and often highly antagonistic relations” (p. 184)(p. 184)- An ‘Islamic-Confucian connection’ is emerging - An ‘Islamic-Confucian connection’ is emerging against the West. against the West.

4. Western civilization may lose its predominance 4. Western civilization may lose its predominance if fail to recognize cultural rifts/conflicts. if fail to recognize cultural rifts/conflicts. - Early actions need to be taken to prevent - Early actions need to be taken to prevent conflicts from spreading into world wars.conflicts from spreading into world wars.

- The challenge for Western policy-makers is to - The challenge for Western policy-makers is to make sure that the West gets stronger.make sure that the West gets stronger.

5. Continued insistence towards 5. Continued insistence towards democratizations and interventionism will only democratizations and interventionism will only further antagonize other civilizations.further antagonize other civilizations.

6. The Orthodox, Hindu and Japanese 6. The Orthodox, Hindu and Japanese civilizations are “swing” civilizations, with the civilizations are “swing” civilizations, with the potential to move in different directions viv-a-potential to move in different directions viv-a-vis the West.vis the West.

7. “Torn countries” – countries that are seeking 7. “Torn countries” – countries that are seeking to affiliate with another civilization. Eg. Turkey.to affiliate with another civilization. Eg. Turkey.

• The breakup of Yugoslavia (Serbs v Bosnians)The breakup of Yugoslavia (Serbs v Bosnians)• Russian war in ChechnyaRussian war in Chechnya• War between India and PakistanWar between India and Pakistan• September 11 event.September 11 event.• The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan (2001)The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan (2001)• The U.S. invasion of Iraq (2003)The U.S. invasion of Iraq (2003)• Madrid Train Bombings (2005)Madrid Train Bombings (2005)• London Bombings (2005)London Bombings (2005)• Jyllands-Posten Prophet Muhammad Cartoon Jyllands-Posten Prophet Muhammad Cartoon

Controversy (2006)Controversy (2006)

Huntington’s CriticsHuntington’s Critics• His theory serves as the theoretical basis to His theory serves as the theoretical basis to

legitimize US-led West aggression against legitimize US-led West aggression against others.others.

• His advocacy to take early actions to His advocacy to take early actions to prevent world wars – explains US policy of prevent world wars – explains US policy of attacking countries that are not currently a attacking countries that are not currently a threat but could potentially be one in the threat but could potentially be one in the future.future.

• Absurd because it is often easier for people Absurd because it is often easier for people of different cultures to get along because of different cultures to get along because they suspend their standard judgments.they suspend their standard judgments.

• E.g. conflicts within the same culture: the E.g. conflicts within the same culture: the Hutus and Tutsis, North and South Korea, Hutus and Tutsis, North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, the Falkland Island China and Taiwan, the Falkland Island Crisis.Crisis.

• His identified civilizations present little His identified civilizations present little unity. E.g:unity. E.g:-Vietnam (Sinic Civ) still keeps a massive -Vietnam (Sinic Civ) still keeps a massive army, mostly to guard against China.army, mostly to guard against China.- The Muslim world divided along ethnic and - The Muslim world divided along ethnic and religious lines.religious lines.- Cultural differences between Korean and - Cultural differences between Korean and China are not less important than between China are not less important than between Japan and China.Japan and China.

Reactions to Huntington’s TheoryReactions to Huntington’s Theory• ““Dialogue Among CivilizationsDialogue Among Civilizations””- a theory in international relations.a theory in international relations.- Introduced by Mohammad Khatami, former Introduced by Mohammad Khatami, former

President of Iran.President of Iran.- As a response to Huntington’s theory.As a response to Huntington’s theory.- Became famous after the United Nations (UN) Became famous after the United Nations (UN)

adopted a resolution to name the year 2001 as adopted a resolution to name the year 2001 as the ‘YEAR OF DIALOGUE AMONG CIVILIZATIONS’. the ‘YEAR OF DIALOGUE AMONG CIVILIZATIONS’.

- There are currently several international There are currently several international organizations that are directly or indirectly organizations that are directly or indirectly pursuing the idea.pursuing the idea.

• ““Alliance of CivilizationsAlliance of Civilizations””- a proposed conference to overcome cultural a proposed conference to overcome cultural

and social barriers between mainly the and social barriers between mainly the Christian and Muslim world.Christian and Muslim world.

- Proposed by Spanish Prime Minister, Jose Luis Proposed by Spanish Prime Minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in the 59Rodriguez Zapatero in the 59thth General General Assembly of the UN. Assembly of the UN.

- Supported by Turkish Prime Minister.Supported by Turkish Prime Minister.- A committee, the High-Level Group (HLG) for A committee, the High-Level Group (HLG) for

the Alliance of Civilization (AoC) consists of the Alliance of Civilization (AoC) consists of eminent policy-makers, academicians, leaders eminent policy-makers, academicians, leaders of societies and media.of societies and media.

- 11stst meeting (Nov 2005), 2 meeting (Nov 2005), 2ndnd meeting (Feb 2006) meeting (Feb 2006)

• ““China’s Peaceful Rise”China’s Peaceful Rise”- or “China’s peaceful development”. or “China’s peaceful development”. - First used by Zheng Bijian, a leader of CCP in First used by Zheng Bijian, a leader of CCP in

2003.2003.- To reassure the nations of East Asia and To reassure the nations of East Asia and

United States that the rise of the PRC in United States that the rise of the PRC in military and economic prominence will not be military and economic prominence will not be a threat to peace and stability, and that other a threat to peace and stability, and that other nations will benefit from the rise of the PRC.nations will benefit from the rise of the PRC.

- Emphasizes multilateral cooperation through Emphasizes multilateral cooperation through institutions like ‘Six Power Talks’, and calls institutions like ‘Six Power Talks’, and calls for peaceful diplomacy over border disputes.for peaceful diplomacy over border disputes.

- Seeks to avoid confrontation with the U.S.Seeks to avoid confrontation with the U.S.

Francis FukuyamaFrancis Fukuyama

• A work entitled in “A work entitled in “The End of HistoryThe End of History”.”.• A theory of ‘the end of history’ – the world A theory of ‘the end of history’ – the world

had reached the ‘end of history’.had reached the ‘end of history’.• Liberal democracy and Western values Liberal democracy and Western values

had become the only remaining ideology had become the only remaining ideology for nations in the post-Cold War period.for nations in the post-Cold War period.

Classification of PowersClassification of Powers

• SuperpowerSuperpower• HyperpowerHyperpower• Potential SuperpowersPotential Superpowers• Major powerMajor power• Regional powerRegional power• BRICBRIC

Map for article Map for article Superpower showing the two showing the two Cold War superpowers of the superpowers of the

Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in red and the in red and the United States of America in blue. in blue.

Super powerSuper power• ‘‘Super’ from Latin ‘Super’ from Latin ‘superussuperus’ (upper or superior)’ (upper or superior)• ‘‘Power’ from Latin ‘Power’ from Latin ‘poterepotere’ (ability to do ’ (ability to do

somethingsomething• Literally means ‘the superior ability to do Literally means ‘the superior ability to do

something’.something’.• A state with the first rank in the international A state with the first rank in the international

system and has the ability to influence events system and has the ability to influence events and project power on a worldwide scale.and project power on a worldwide scale.

• The term in its current political meaning was The term in its current political meaning was coined in “coined in “The SuperpowersThe Superpowers” (1943) by W. T. ” (1943) by W. T. R. Fox.R. Fox.

• In early 1940s, the superpowers were the In early 1940s, the superpowers were the U.S, Soviet Union and Great Britain.U.S, Soviet Union and Great Britain.

• The immediate post-war years and during The immediate post-war years and during Cold War period, the superpowers were Cold War period, the superpowers were U.S and Soviet Union.U.S and Soviet Union.

• After the disintegration of Soviet Union After the disintegration of Soviet Union (1990s), the remaining superpower is U.S.(1990s), the remaining superpower is U.S.

The criteria of a The criteria of a Superpower:Superpower:• CulturalCultural• GeographicalGeographical• Economic and financialEconomic and financial• DemographicDemographic• MilitaryMilitary• Political or IdeologicalPolitical or Ideological

HyperpowerHyperpower• Coined by French foreign minister, Coined by French foreign minister,

Hubert Vedrine in the 1990s.Hubert Vedrine in the 1990s.• Applied to the U.S, the sole superpower Applied to the U.S, the sole superpower

of the Cold War era – of the Cold War era – U.S. as U.S. as HyperpowerHyperpower, has no equals in terms of , has no equals in terms of power and influence.power and influence.

• Controversial.Controversial.• Unipolar world versus Multipolar world.Unipolar world versus Multipolar world.

Potential SuperpowersPotential Superpowers

• ChinaChina• European UnionEuropean Union• IndiaIndia

The The People's Republic of China is in red, the is in red, the European Union in blue in blue and the and the Republic of India in green. Countries which are currently in in green. Countries which are currently in the process of joining the European Union or have officially started the process of joining the European Union or have officially started talks are colored in purple; these are talks are colored in purple; these are Romania, , Bulgaria, , Croatia, , Macedonia and and Turkey. .

CHINACHINA

EUEU

INDIAINDIA

Major powersMajor powers

• BrazilBrazil• FranceFrance• GermanyGermany• JapanJapan• RussiaRussia• United KingdomUnited Kingdom

Map showing major powers; The Federative Republic of Brazil is in Map showing major powers; The Federative Republic of Brazil is in pink, the French Republic is in brown, the Federal Republic of pink, the French Republic is in brown, the Federal Republic of Germany is in green, Japan is in gold, the Russian Federation is in Germany is in green, Japan is in gold, the Russian Federation is in red and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is red and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is

in bluein blue..

Regional powersRegional powers• India & Pakistan (South Asia)India & Pakistan (South Asia)• Argentina, Mexico & Brazil (Latin America)Argentina, Mexico & Brazil (Latin America)• South Africa & Nigeria (Sub-Saharan Africa)South Africa & Nigeria (Sub-Saharan Africa)• Israel, Turkey, Iran & Egypt (Middle East)Israel, Turkey, Iran & Egypt (Middle East)• China & Japan (East Asia)China & Japan (East Asia)• Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines

& Singapore (Southeast Asia)& Singapore (Southeast Asia)• United Kingdom, France & Germany (Europe)United Kingdom, France & Germany (Europe)• Russia (former Soviet bloc and Central Asia)Russia (former Soviet bloc and Central Asia)• Australia and New Zealand (Pacific)Australia and New Zealand (Pacific)

Muslims and World PoliticsMuslims and World Politics• Islamic civilization – lots of potential.Islamic civilization – lots of potential.• Viewed as a threat to the West.Viewed as a threat to the West.• Islam is second largest religion in the world – is Islam is second largest religion in the world – is

growing faster numerically than any of the other growing faster numerically than any of the other major world religions (Christianity, Buddhism, major world religions (Christianity, Buddhism, Hinduism).Hinduism).

• The growth rate 2.9 % annually compared to 2.3 The growth rate 2.9 % annually compared to 2.3 % annually of global population growth.% annually of global population growth.

• Higher birth rates in many Muslim countries (six Higher birth rates in many Muslim countries (six out of top-ten countries in the world with the out of top-ten countries in the world with the highest birth rates are majority Muslims)highest birth rates are majority Muslims)

• Muslim population 1.4 billion.Muslim population 1.4 billion.

• Muslims not confined to one place – Muslims not confined to one place – spread all over the world (Asia, Europe, spread all over the world (Asia, Europe, America)America)

• Muslims controlling major trading Muslims controlling major trading waterways; Malacca Strait, Mediterranean waterways; Malacca Strait, Mediterranean Sea, Suez canal, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Sea, Suez canal, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Aegean Sea.Aegean Sea.

• One ideology – Islam (Qur’an).One ideology – Islam (Qur’an).Muslims’ weaknessesMuslims’ weaknesses::•No unity.No unity.• Sunni, Shi’a (Twelvers, Niners, Fivers, Sunni, Shi’a (Twelvers, Niners, Fivers, Ismaili, Nizari Ismaili, Mustaali Bohra, Ismaili, Nizari Ismaili, Mustaali Bohra, Dawoodi Bohra, Sulaimani Bohra), Wahhabis Dawoodi Bohra, Sulaimani Bohra), Wahhabis (Salafis), Ibadhi Muslims (Kharijites)(Salafis), Ibadhi Muslims (Kharijites)

• The Nation of Islam, Zikris, Ahmadiyya The Nation of Islam, Zikris, Ahmadiyya (Qadiani), Al-Ahbash (Habashies)(Qadiani), Al-Ahbash (Habashies)

• The Druze, Alawites (Alnusairiya)The Druze, Alawites (Alnusairiya)• Tribalism, nationalism, secularism.Tribalism, nationalism, secularism.• Lack of communications between sub-cultures.Lack of communications between sub-cultures.• Poverty, illiteracy – 80 % of world refugees are Poverty, illiteracy – 80 % of world refugees are

Muslims.Muslims.• Dominated by foreign influence / foreign Dominated by foreign influence / foreign

intervention – Western pressure, Western intervention – Western pressure, Western capital & Western market.capital & Western market.

• Bad images; terrorists.Bad images; terrorists.• Lack military power; science and technology.Lack military power; science and technology.• Undemocratic governments; no syura.Undemocratic governments; no syura.

BRICBRIC

• The combination of The combination of BBrazil, razil, RRussia, ussia, IIndia ndia and and CChina.hina.

• May become among the four most May become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050dominant economies by the year 2050

• Proposed by Jim O’Neil.Proposed by Jim O’Neil.

The four BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India and ChinaThe four BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India and China