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This presentation outlines changes to state pension age (SPA) in the UK, analyses trends in employment rates for men and women since 1971 and considers what the future impacts of both may be on the size of the working population of London.
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Demographic implications of changes to state pension age
Ms Baljit BainsDemography & Policy Analysis Manager, Intelligence
GREATERLONDONAUTHORITY
Employment and Population in London - New history, new futures
15th December 2011
What I will cover…
Outline changes to state pension age (SPA)
Analysis of trends in employment rates for men and women.
Some future scenarios…
Link these back to population projections to give a sense of the number of working people
Proposed changes to SPA
SPA rising to 65 for women by November 2018
SPA rising to 66 for men and women by October 2020
SPA rising to 67 for men and women by April 2028
Employment rates, men and women
Employment rates, men and women
1971
Employment rates, men and women
1981
Employment rates, men and women
1991
Employment rates, men and women
2001
Employment rates, men and women
2010
Differences between men and women
Difference between rates, 2001 to 2010
Student employment & activity 1991 to 2010
Student employment by ethnicity 2001
Employment rates for men by ethnicity
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
All groups
White
Black Caribbean
Black African
Other Black
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Chinese
Other Asian
Other groups
Per cent2010 2001 1991
Employment rates for women by ethnicity
Difference between rates for men and women by ethnicity
Labour market engagement
Ability – Illness– Educations/Qualifications/Skills– Availability of appropriate work
Necessity– Personal financial circumstances– Pension provision: private/public/state pension
Choice– DRA abolished 6th April 2011– Women staying in work longer whilst partner is still working
Future Scenarios
Current employment rates remain in the future
Employment rates of those with lowest rates increase– Ethnic minorities
– Women with dependent children
– Older men
– Older women
But by how much………….
ER differences between 2001 and 2010
Scenarios
On the basis of previous trends and the push effect of increased SPA:
– Employment rates between older men and women will further converge
– Men’s employment rates at older ages will increase.
Employment rates for females over 60 converged to men’s rate
Effect of half and total convergence on numbers employed
Uplift to female employment rates at ages 45 to 59
Increased male employment rates at ages 45+
