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Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Ben Page gave this presentation at the Department for Education National College for Training & School Leadership annual conference "Seizing Success 2013". More information: http://www.education.gov.uk/nationalcollege/index/events/conference2013/conference2013-ben-page-making-sense-of-britain.htm

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Page 1: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI

Page 2: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)
Page 3: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

6%

Britain is getting

better as a place to

live November 2011

Page 4: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

61%

Britain is getting

worse as a place to

live November 2011

Page 5: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

24%

Britain is getting better

as a place to live July 1998

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R² = 0.49

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

We are in a group of European countries feeling hardest hit

by the last five years

Net disagree

country will

never be the

same again

Net last five years good for country

Base: 17,678 online interviews with adults aged 16/18-64 in 23 countries, September 4-18 2012. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

Japan

Hungary

Turkey Russia

Belgium South Africa

Argentina

Germany

US

France

GB

Mexico Poland

Sweden

Spai

n

Italy

South Korea

Indonesia Australia

Saudi Arabia

Canada India

Brazil

Net last five years bad for country

Net agree

country

will never

be the

same

again

Page 7: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

What it means to be British

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What we really value about Britain...

Overall, which two or three of the following, would you say makes you most

proud to be British?

Page 9: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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45

37

36

28

24

22

15

10

5

4

Our History

The NHS

British Army/armed forces

The Royal Family

Our culture and arts

Our system of democracy

Having a free press/media

British sports teams

Our position in the world

British business

What we really value about Britain...

Overall, which two or three of the following, would you say makes you most

proud to be British?

Base: 998 British adults, interviewed face to face 27 Jan - 5 Feb 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Channel 4

Page 10: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

Mustn’t

Grumble There’s lots

about Britain

that’s good

Page 11: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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The Great British Character...

From this list, please tell me which two or three, if any, you think are the best

characteristics of British people as a whole?

Base: 998 British adults, interviewed face to face 27 Jan- 5 Feb 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Channel 4

45

34

30

28

26

19

18

14

Good sense of humour

Friendly

Tolerant to all sections of society

Hard working

Polite / good manners

Patriotism

Law abiding

Keep themselves to themselves

Page 12: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

On the

other

hand...

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The British character - bad

From this list, please tell me which two or three, if any, you think are the worst

characteristics of British people as a whole?

Base: 998 British adults, 27 Jan- 5 Feb 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Channel 4

50

33

23

20

19

18

16

15

6

6

4

Drink too much

Ignorant of other cultures

Complain too much

Lazy

Intolerant to different sections of society

Bad eating habits

Too pessimistic

Rude

Too nationalistic

Unfriendly

Bad teeth

Page 14: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

An

assessment

supported

by the

evidence...

Page 15: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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May be they’re right....

Alcohol Consumption in the UK 1947-2009

Source: British Beer and Pub Association Statistical Handbook 2010

Page 16: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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16% drop in consumption since 2004

Alcohol Consumption in the UK 1947-2009

Source: British Beer and Pub Association Statistical Handbook 2010

Page 17: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

Not worried

about you

Page 18: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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0

10

20

30

40

50

May 1997

May 1998

May 1999

May 2000

May 2001

May 2002

May 2003

May 2004

May 2005

May 2006

May 2007

May 2008

May 2009

May 2010

May 2011

May 2012

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Concern about education and schools....

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

London

Bombs

Introduction of

means-tested

tuition fees.

Education most

important issue.

Fuel

Protests

City academies introduced

to combat entrenched

failure in some urban

schools

Lowest score

since Dec 1985

Labour’s second term - pledge

to improve failing secondary

schools

Education and Inspections

Bill limits the power of LAs

to open new schools

Brown becomes

PM

Cameron becomes

PM

Page 19: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Q “Currently, what would you say is the MAIN educational issue the

Government needs to address?”

Pupil behaviour seen as main educational problem – not exam system

Funding/(budget crisis)

Pupil behaviour/discipline

Tuition fees

Class size/pupil-teacher ratio

Back to basics/higher standards

Teachers’ workload

Base: 2,048 British adults 18+ , January 2012

Teacher recruitment and retention

Assessment/exam reform

Inclusion/Special Education Needs (SEN)

Bullying in schools

17%

9%

6%

6%

6%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

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On the other

hand...

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Page 22: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

Hysteresis –

my new

favourite

word

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How do we compare with our parents?

Base: 985 British adults aged 15+, 5-25 April 2013

Q. “To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will have had a better or worse

life than your parents’ generation, or will it have been about the same?”

Source: Ipsos MORI

32%

29%

20%

14%

4% 1%

Much better

About the same

Much worse

Generations

Better

%

Worse

%

Generation Y 42 29

Generation X 60 19

Baby

Boomers 70 14

Pre-War 79 8

Slightly better

Slightly worse

61%

18%

Don’t know

Page 24: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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23

43

42

45

35

12

Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011

% Higher % Lower

Q. When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality of life than you, or about the same?

Source: Ipsos MORI

November 2011

And what about our own children?

April 2003

Page 25: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

..worried

about young

people

Page 26: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Q “What do you see as the most important issue facing Britain today?”

Youth unemployment seen by one in eight Captains of Industry as key problem - higher than lending and financial crisis

43%

32%

20%

18%

15%

13%

12%

11%

8%

Top Mentions

The Eurozone

Government deficit/debt

Lack of economic growth

Consumer

confidence/confidence

Unemployment

Youth unemployment

Societal dysfunction/social

issues

Availability of finance/bank

lending

Financial crisis/instability

Base: British Captains of Industry (100), interviewed September - December 2012

Page 27: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

More than a million young people in England

were not in education, employment or training

(Neet) in the three months to September 2012.

17% of 16- to 24-year-olds were without jobs or

college places.

Department for Education, November 2012

Page 28: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

81% of small business owners are not confident that school leavers have the right level of employability skills

Page 29: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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3%

29%

23%

54%

13%

8%

35%

8%

26%

1%

Britain’s education system delivers the

skills that your business needs

Large companies should do a lot more

to promote understanding of

business in secondary schools

% Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Neither agree nor disagree

% Tend to disagree % Strongly disagree

83%

Q “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following

statements?”

Views shared by Captains of Industry

Base: British Captains of Industry (100), interviewed September - December 2011

Only 26% Agree 61% Don’t

9%

Page 30: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Q28 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “Vocational qualifications are of an equal value to traditional academic qualifications such as GCSEs and A levels in terms of the difficulty involved in achieving the qualification.”

24%

23%

16%

15%

27%

30%

15%

18%

Headteachers 14%

4

Teachers 14%

Neutral opinion or don’t know

Strongly disagree

Tend to disagree

Tend to agree

Strongly agree

Vocational qualifications under valued?

Page 31: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Q “How well prepared are education leavers for employment? “

A third of business say school leavers are NOT

well prepared

28% 25% 19% 12%

9% 7%

5% 2%

49% 54% 60%

59%

10% 10% 13% 23%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

16 - year old school leavers 17-18 - year old school leavers

17-18-year old FE leavers University or HE Leavers

Poorly Prepared Very poorly prepared Well prepared Very well prepared

Unweighted Base: (10,985) (13,891) (13,024

)

(15,706

)

Base: 85,069 establishments in England, Northern Ireland, and Wales

Source: Employer Skills Survey 2011

37% 32%

24%

14%

Page 32: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Q “How helpful, if at all, will each of the following be in helping you do

what you want to do in the future? “

Are you helping them?

Base: All year 11 pupils in England stating an answer (368), 9th January - 3rd April 2009

94

92

91

89

83

75

72

66

56

4

5

5

8

13

20

25

25

33

2009

Learning how to look for a job

% Helpful % Not helpful

Learning interview techniques

Going on a work placement for a week or more

Being taught how to write a CV

Discussing what job you want to do when you are older

Visiting a work place, such as a factory or shop

Listening to or speaking with a visitor from business

Taking part in exercises about the world of work

2007 %

Helpful

97

94

92

86

96

79

79

71

62 Taking part in a mini-enterprise or other enterprise project

Page 33: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Q “Looking at the list below, have you ever done any of the following in school time?”

Q “How helpful, if at all, will each of the following be in helping you do what you want?”

More practical techniques would be helpful

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

50 60 70 80 90

Have d

on

e i

n s

ch

oo

l

Would be helpful

Base: 379 year 11 pupils giving an answer in England. Fieldwork dates: 9th January- 3rd April 2009

%

%

Learning how to look for a

job

Learning interview techniques

Going on a work placement for a week or more

Being taught how to write a

CV

Discussing what job you want to do when you are older

Visiting a work place, such as a factory or shop

Listening to or speaking with a

visitor from business

Taking part in exercises about the

world of work

Taking part in a mini-enterprise or other enterprise project

Page 34: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Q “Who do you think should learn about jobs and working life while

they are at school? “

They want to hear more about world of work...

2007

Only young people who plan to get a full-time job at 16

All young people

77%

13%

11%

2009

Base: 1,983 young people aged 11-16 in England. 2007 base (2,195), 2004 base (2,131),

Don’t know

79%

10%

12%

2004

74%

13%

13%

Fieldwork dates: 9th January- 3rd April 2009

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Our changing generations (and

our rugged individualist

youth)…….

Page 36: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Need to understand our generational profile

Source: Eurostat

Proportion of UK adult (18+) population from each generational grouping

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

% Pre war generation

% Generation Y

% Generation X

% Baby boomers

Page 37: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

• Of Twitter users are

likely to recommend a

brand they follow, and

more than 1/3 access

Twitter via their mobile

phone.

Two clear consistent themes:

“Younger generations will go

through the hardest times”

(Baby Boomer)

“I don’t want to be old in this

country”

(Gen X)

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“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes”

Page 39: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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All data points represent > 200 responses

Source: British Social Attitudes

“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the

poor, even if it leads to higher taxes”

But the young are toughest on the poor....

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65)

Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

% Agree

Page 40: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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All data points represent > 200 responses

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates

“How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare

state is one of Britain's proudest achievements.”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

% % Agree/Strongly agree

Different generations now have different values...

Page 41: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

Worried Britain

Page 42: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

And yet...

Page 43: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

Lowest

murder

rate since

1978...

Page 44: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

Crime rates

running at

half 1990s

levels...

Page 45: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Concern about crime also falling What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May 1997

May 1998

May 1999

May 2000

May 2001

May 2002

May 2003

May 2004

May 2005

May 2006

May 2007

May 2008

May 2009

May 2010

May 2011

May 2012

Fuel

Protests

May day riots

Blair activates civil contingencies

machinery to deal with spiralling

street crime

Tory election pledge of

40,000 more police

Foreign prisoners

scandal – Charles Clarke

is sacked

Rhys Jones and

Garry Newlove

murdered

Riots

Prison

overcrowding

reaches record

levels

9/11

Brown becomes

PM

Cameron becomes

PM

Page 46: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or

that you need to be very careful in dealing with people?

No more “broken” than many other societies...

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

USA Germany Britain Spain Poland France

% A

gre

e t

hat

mo

st

peo

ple

can

be

tru

ste

d

Social Trust

USA

Germany

Britain

Spain

Poland

France

Source: World Values Survey quoted in Ipsos MORI’s, Our Nations Civic Health, 2010

Page 47: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

54% 60%

Page 48: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

On the other hand....

Page 49: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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GAMIFICATION

SIMULATORS/

PREDICTIVE TOOLS

NEUROSCIENCE REAL TIME

QUANTIFIED SELF AUGMENTED

REALITY META DATA

CLOUD TECHNOLOGY RFID/SENSORS LEVERAGING

DISTRACTION

LOCATION-BASED/

GEO-SOCIAL APPIFICATION

A permanent

change – to

permanent change

Page 50: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

TECHNOLOGY TRACKER | QUARTERLY RELEASE: Q1 2013

LEADING THE WAY IN SMARTPHONES

31

53

14

21

9 13

9

20

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Q1 '11 Q3' 11 Q4' 11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13

50

Base: circa 1,000 GB adults aged 15+ per wave Source: Ipsos MORI

BLACKBERRY VS. IPHONE VS. ANDROID OWNERSHIP

iPhone

Males 15-34 29%

Males 35+ 22%

Female 15-

34 19%

Females

35+ 30%

Android

Males 15-34 27%

Males 35+ 27%

Female 15-

34 23%

Females

35+ 23%

BlackBerry

Males 15-34 22%

Males 35+ 29%

Female 15-

34 24%

Females

35+ 25%

Any Smartphone

(net)

Customer profile

Page 51: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)
Page 52: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

Actually quite good Britain

Page 53: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

• Of Twitter users are

likely to recommend a

brand they follow, and

more than 1/3 access

Twitter via their mobile

phone.

Back

to

London

2012

Page 54: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)
Page 55: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)
Page 56: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

"As awful as it is to admit,

London 2012 was bigger,

slicker, almost as friendly

and more thoughtfully

planned than Sydney in

terms of the legacy it will

leave the host city”

The Australian

Page 57: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

"As awful as it is to admit,

London 2012 was bigger,

slicker, almost as friendly

and more thoughtfully

planned than Sydney in

terms of the legacy it will

leave the host city”

The Australian

"These Olympics have

been a success for Great

Britain. Bolt, Boyle, Bond,

Brenda and Mr Bean: all the

champions took to the

field, no-one

disappointed!"

Corriere della Sella

Page 58: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

We think we’re good at

SOME things...

Page 59: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Our self assessment: The “inputs”

Which 2 or 3 would you pick out as areas where Britain is strongest/ weakest

compared with other countries?

Base: 1,003 British adults, 25-31 May 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Design Council

35

22

11 11 7 6 5 3

-19 -19

-45

0

Page 60: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

The UK is in the world’s Top 10....

directly employs 2.5 million people,

generates half of UK

exports...2nd only to the US in

aerospace industry...2 of top 6

pharmaceutical companies in the

world have their HQs in UK…

Source: Technology Strategy Board

Page 61: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

We think we’re good at

SOME more things...

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Our self assessment: The “outputs”

Which 2 or 3 would you pick out as areas where Britain is strongest/ weakest

compared with other countries?

Base: 1,003 British adults, 25-31 May 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Design Council

25 23 12 9 8 8 7 3

-4 -5 -8 -22

Page 63: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

“... resurgent UK-based auto

industry exported a record-breaking

84% of production last

year.....average annual productivity

increase of 3.6%, two and a half

times greater than the UK economy

as a whole”

Source: Technology Strategy Board

Page 64: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

But we’re modest

people really...

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The most famous British products?

Looking at this list, which, if any, would you describe as “British”?

By British, I mean they were made or designed in Britain

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59

52

48

20

14

13

9

6

5

4

2

2

7

3

The Mini

Cat’s Eyes (on the road)

Dyson vacuum cleaner

The Hoover vacuum cleaner

Lastminute.com

World Wide Web (www)

Teflon

Grand Theft Auto video game

The BlackBerry phone

Facebook

The VW Beetle

The “Angry Birds” App

Don’t know

None of these

The most famous British products?

Looking at this list, which, if any, would you describe as “British”?

By British, I mean they were made or designed in Britain

Base: 1,003 British adults, 25-31 May 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Design Council

Page 67: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

But we’re modest people

really...

...perhaps too

modest?

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Typically self-deprecating Brits…!

Taking into account all the things which you think are important, how

favourable or unfavourable is your overall opinion/impression of the UK…?

Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country; July 2010

53%

50%

49%

48%

46%

45%

45%

43%

41%

37%

36%

24%

13%

55%

54%

45%

56%

45%

51%

53%

56%

47%

59%

43%

42%

48%

Respects human rights

Has a strong commitment to culture and the arts

Respects its neighbours and other countries

Has strong democratic values and institutions

Contributes to peace and co-operation

Contributes to global economy

Respects contracts and the rule of law

Respects the rights of its citizens

Contributes to international socio-economic development

Its people enjoy a good standard of living

Makes a positive difference in the world

Is a good country in which to invest

Has a strong economy

% Favourable - Britain % Favourable - Global

Page 69: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

• Of Twitter users are

likely to recommend a

brand they follow, and

more than 1/3 access

Twitter via their mobile

phone.

Two

Olympic

Years:

1948

and

2012

Page 70: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

TV ownership…

from 46,000 to

26,000,000

Page 71: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

Life expectancy…

from 68 to 80 years

Page 72: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

Population…

from 49.8m to 63m

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Better for women, more tolerant, diverse...

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about

how Britain has changed since 1948?

Base: 2,320 British adults, 30 Nov – 6 Dec 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI / British Future

88

72

44

4

11

29

Women have more choices now than they did

People are less discriminating of people who are gay

Relations between different ethnic groups are better now

Agree Disagree

Page 74: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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Less religious... And getting ruder...

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about

how Britain has changed since 1948?

Base: 2,320 British adults, 30 Nov – 6 Dec 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI / British Future

72

12

7

13

56

74

Britain is a less religious place now

British people are better at parenting now

Britain is now a more polite place

Agree Disagree

Page 75: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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On balance we’ve lost something...

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about

how Britain has changed since 1948?

Base: 2,320 British adults, 30 Nov – 6 Dec 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI / British Future

24%

52%

24%

People are just as proud to be British now as they were then

Agree

Disagree

Neither / no opinion

Page 76: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

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People have different attitudes towards statistics. Which of the following do you

agree with most?

...people’s own use of evidence skewed to direct

experience

Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

46

9

18

26 Statistics are more important

than my own experiences or

those of my family and friends in

helping me keep track of how

the government is doing

My own experiences or those of

my family and friends are more

important than statistics in

helping me keep track of how

the government is doing

Both equally

Neither/Don’t know

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Imagine you have a life-threatening illness and your doctor has told you that

you need an operation to treat it. How likely, if at all, are you to have this

operation if your doctor tells you that...

... we focus on negative information

Base: c. 500 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

56

33

3

1

7

39

38

6

2

16

Very likely

Quite likely

Not very likely

Not at all likely

Don't know

90% of people who have the operation are alive for at least 5 years following the operation

10% of people who have the operation die within 5 years of the operation

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Thinking about your child/if you had a child, which of the following

would make you most proud?

We don’t value numeracy.......

Base: 516 British adults aged 16-75, interviews conducted online 9th-15th April 2013 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

13

55

16

15

If they were very good with numbers

If they were very good at reading and writing

Neither

Don't know

Page 79: Britain 2013: The Trend (So Far)

We under-estimate ourselves, and our economy... ...we are much more interesting than we imagine...

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Help them get ready for an unpredictable world!

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81 81

Most predictions are wrong

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82 82

Most predictions are wrong

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MICROSOFT,

APPLE AND IPSOS

MORI WILL

PROBABLY NOT

EXIST IN 100

YEARS’ TIME 83

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Help them get ready!

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