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The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Imagining 2024 1 America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey Key Findings

America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey – Key Findings

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The key findings of "America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey," a survey commissioned by The Atlantic and the Aspen Institute and released July 1, 2014 at the organizations’ 10th annual Aspen Ideas Festival, and conducted by research firm Penn Schoen Berland (PSB) in partnership with global public relations and strategic communications firm Burson-Marsteller. PSB, working with Burson Marsteller, conducted 2,001 online interviews with the United States general population from May 28 – 31, 2014.

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Page 1: America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey – Key Findings

The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

Imagining 2024

1

America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey Key Findings

Page 2: America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey – Key Findings

The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024 What we did

2

Penn Schoen Berland, working with Burson-Marsteller, conducted 2,001 online interviews with the United States general population from May 28-31, 2014.

The overall margin of error is ± 2.19%

The data presented in this study are reflective of U.S. Census Bureau demographic statistics in terms of gender, age, ethnicity, income and political party.

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IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024 What we learned

Two wars overseas. The Great Recession. George W. Bush. Barack Obama. The Tea Party. Obamacare. Gay marriage. NSA

surveillance.

Americans have experienced an incredible amount of change over the past 10 years. What we’ve learned is that they are

bracing for more change in the next 10 years.

Normally certain about America’s economic strength and place in the world but uncertain on social issues, Americans foresee a

future in which the country’s strength is in doubt but there is unity on social issues.

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IMAGINING 2024 The key takeaways

Americans are highly uncertain about the country’s strength in 10 years. The Economy – We are moving from an “Age of Possibility” to an “Age of Impossibility,” with few

saying the U.S. will be the “Land of Opportunity” in 10 years, and many envisioning a country where it is harder to get ahead and harder to get a good education.

Our Role in the World – America as “The Indispensable Nation” will become “A More Dispensable Nation,” predicting China, not the U.S., will lead the world in 10 years.

Politics and Government – The future of our ability to govern ourselves is in doubt, with low optimism about our ability to have effective government with regard to economic issues and key services, such as healthcare and education.

Meanwhile, there is increasing certainty on the shape of society. The Social Fabric – A new social issue consensus is emerging, with debates around issues like same-

sex marriage, legalizing marijuana and climate change on the way toward being resolved. Technology – The United States of Technology is a bright spot in our future, envisioning technology

surrounding us and improving our lives with tech entrepreneurs becoming the country’s real leaders.

And Americans have interesting views on The Way We Will Live, envisioning greater connection to religious institutions, fewer Americans entering the institution of marriage and less time spent on the roads.

4

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Imagining 2024: We are moving from an “Age of Possibility” to an “Age of

Impossibility”

5

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65 percent of Americans are not convinced the U.S. will be on the right track in 10 years

28%

37%

35% Right Track

Don't Know

Wrong Direction

6

AMERICA’S PATH Do you think the United States will be on the right track or headed in the wrong direction in 10 years?

ALL

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Two-thirds do not say America will be considered the “land of opportunity” in 10 years

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LAND OF OPPORTUNITY IN 10 YEARS Do you think America will be considered the "land of opportunity" in 10 years?

YES NO DON’T KNOW

33% 42% 24%

ALL

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23% 49% 16% 21% 61% 30% More likely to get

ahead

Don't Know

Less likely to getahead

7 in 10 Americans are not certain that, in 10 years, working hard and playing by the rules will bring success

8

IN 10 YEARS

HARD WORK AND PLAYING BY RULES IN 10 YEARS Ten years ago, do you think that people who worked hard and played by the rules were more or less likely to get ahead?

In 10 years, do you think that people who work hard and play by the rules will be more or less likely to get ahead?

10 YEARS AGO

ALL ALL

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Hispanics, African-Americans are significantly more likely than white Americans to foresee opportunity in 10 years

9

29%

45% 47%

White African-American Hispanic

AMERICA WILL BE LAND OF OPPORTUNITY IN 10 YEARS

Do you think America will be considered the "land of opportunity" in 10 years? Showing “Yes”

24%

44% 49%

White African-American Hispanic

MORE LIKELY TO GET AHEAD WITH HARD WORK/PLAYING BY RULES IN 10 YEARS

In 10 years, do you think that people who work hard and play by the rules will be more or less likely to get ahead?

Showing “More likely”

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Two-thirds say income inequality will grow over the next 10 years

10

WEALTH GAP IN 10 YEARS Do you think that the gap between the rich and poor will

grow or shrink in the United States over the next 10 years?

16% 18%

66% Grow

Don't Know

Shrink

ALL

• Age 65+: 79% say Grow • Millennials: 59% say Grow

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47%

22% 31% Better

Don't Know

Worse

Most do not say public schools or the performance of American students will get better in 10 years

11

MATH AND SCIENCE RANK IN 2024 U.S. students are currently ranked 31st in math and 24th in science when compared to 65 other top industrial countries. Do you expect

the U.S. to rank higher or lower in these areas in 10 years?

PUBLIC SCHOOL SYSTEM IN 2024 Ten years from now, do you expect the American public

school system to be better or worse than it is today?

44%

24% 32% Higher

Don't Know

Lower

• Millennials: 24% say Higher • Age 65+: 41% say Higher • African-Americans: 44% say Better

ALL ALL

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Americans tend to say private schools are the best option for children and will be in 10 years as well

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23% 17%

10% 11%

32% 33%

16% 18% 19% 21%

Public school Charter school Private school Home schooling Don't know

SCHOOL OPTIONS TODAY AND IN 10 YEARS In your opinion, what do you think is the best option for school-aged children in America today?

In ten years, what do you think will be the best option for school-aged children in America?

• Income > $75k: 41% say Private • Income <$35k: 31% say Don’t know

IN 10 YEARS 10 YEARS AGO ALL ALL

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29%

50%

20% Yes

No

Don't know

Most think college will be more important in the future, but only 29 percent of parents say they will be able to afford it

13

IMPORTANCE OF COLLEGE DEGREE IN 10 YEARS IF PARENTS: Do you think it will be more important, less important

or no more or less important for your children to have a college degree in 10 years than it was for you?

COLLEGE AFFORDABILITY IN 10 YEARS IF PARENTS: By the time they go to college, do you think

you will be able to afford your children’s college education?

ALL

56% 26% 7%

11% ALL

More Important No More or Less ImportantLess Important Don't Know

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Most parents foresee a tough job market for their children in 10 years

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EASE OF FINDING JOBS FOR CHILDREN IN 10 YEARS IF PARENTS: In 10 years, will it be easy or difficult for your children to find good jobs?

9% 16% 38% 26% 10%

Very easy Somewhat easy Somewhat difficult Very difficult Don't know

ALL

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60% 21%

18% Yes

No

Don't know

Despite a negative economic outlook, 6 in 10 parents express optimism about their children’s well-being

15

CHILDREN BETTER OFF IN 10 YEARS THAN PARENTS WERE AT SAME AGE IF PARENTS: In 10 years, do you think your children will be better off than you were at their age?

ALL

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44% 31%

18%

54% 41% 52% 45% 49%

72% 50%

Better off financially On path to affordingretirement

Afford children'scollege education

Children better offthan parents were

Afford regularvacations

Women Men

Women have a more pessimistic view of their personal and household finances than men do

16

VIEWS BY GENDER: IN 10 YEARS…

QUESTIONS SHOWN: • In 10 years, do you expect to be better off or worse off financially than you are today? Showing “Better off” • In 10 years, do you think you will be on a path to affording retirement? Showing “Yes” • By the time they go to college, do you think you will be able to afford your children’s college education? Showing “Yes” • IF PARENT: In 10 years, do you think your children will be better off than you were at their age? Showing “Yes” • In 10 years, do you think you will be able to afford to go on regular vacations? Showing “Yes”

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Imagining 2024: America as “The Indispensable Nation” will become “A More

Dispensable Nation”

17

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Only 3 in 10 envision America’s global standing being on the rise in 10 years

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AMERICA’S GLOBAL STANDING IN 10 YEARS Do you think America’s global standing will be on the rise or in decline in 10 years?

30% 43% 26%

On the Rise In Decline Don't Know

ALL

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68%

44% 43%

21% 13% 9% 9%

China U.S. Russia Japan UK Germany India

ALL

Most think China – not the U.S. – will be a superpower in 10 years

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SUPERPOWERS IN 2024 Which countries do you think will be considered “superpowers” in 10 years? Please name as many countries as you think apply.

• Income of >$75k: 79% say China

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A majority believe China will be the world’s biggest economic force in 10 years

20

TOP GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCE IN 10 YEARS Which country do you think will be the world’s biggest economic force in 10 years?

20%

53%

U.S.

China

ALL

• Income of >$75k: 63% say China • Income of <$35k: 49% say China

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Only 22 percent say there will be more peace around the world in 10 years

21

22% 55% 23%

More peace Less peace Don't know

ALL

WORLD PEACE IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think there will be more or less peace around the world than there is today?

• Millennials: 28% say More peace • Age 65+: 15% say More peace

• Democrats: 27% say More peace • Republicans: 14% say More peace

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Almost half foresee the U.S. having engaged in armed conflict with Iran by 2024

22

ARMED CONFLICT WITH THE U.S. IN 10 YEARS In the next 10 years, do you think the United States will have engaged in armed conflict with any of the following countries?

45% 31% 19%

Iran Russia China

ALL (Showing yes)

• Millennials: 44% say Russia, 25% say China • Age 65+: 7% say Russia, 6% say China

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Imagining 2024: The future of our ability to govern ourselves is in deep doubt

23

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Two-thirds are not convinced Americans will be more unified in 10 years

24

More unified 49% Less

unified 32%

Don't know 19%

More unified

Less unified

Don't know

UNITY 10 YEARS AGO Do you think Americans were more or less unified as a

people 10 years ago than we are today?

More unified 33%

Less unified 41%

Don't know 26%

More unified

Less unified

Don't know

UNITY IN 10 YEARS Do you think Americans will be more or less unified as a

people in 10 years than we are today?

ALL ALL

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A majority think government will be bigger in 10 years, but most do not say it will be more effective

25

EFFECTIVENESS OF GOVERNMENT IN 10 YEARS

Do you think the American government will be more or less effective in 10 years than it is now?

35%

33%

32% More Effective

Don't Know

Less Effective

ALL

18%

29%

54% Bigger

Don't Know

Smaller

SIZE OF GOVERNMENT IN 10 YEARS Do you think the size of government will be bigger or

smaller in 10 years than it is today?

ALL

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21%

16%

18%

15%

32%

34%

36%

37%

41%

37%

35%

35%

34%

29%

21%

20%

18%

17%

Federal budget/national debt

Rising costs of college education

Traditional family values

Taxes

Health care

Defense and national security

Homeland security and terrorism

Energy independence

Alternative energy sources

Madeprogress

Gonebackward

Americans tend to foresee moving forward on energy and security, moving backward on taxes and the cost of college

26

PROGRESS/REGRESSION ON ISSUES IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made progress, will have gone

backward or will there have been no change in the next 10 years?

Top Four: Made progress

Bottom Four: Gone backward

In the middle

ALL

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Most believe Obamacare will either look very different or cease to exist by 2024

27

STATUS OF OBAMACARE IN 10 YEARS What do you think the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, will be like in 10 years?

18% 35% 32%

15% It will exist with only minor

changesIt will exist but with major

changesIt will no longer exist Don't know

ALL

• Republicans: 46% say No longer exist • Democrats: 23% say No longer exist

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Americans are more likely to think we will have a government-run health care system than a private one

28

GOVERNMENT VS. PRIVATE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think the United States will have a national health care program supplied to everyone by the government instead of a private health care system?

38%

27%

36% National health care

Private health care

Don't know

ALL

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Most believe they will have less privacy from the government in ten years and view that as bad for society

29

PRIVACY FROM U.S. GOVERNMENT In ten years, do you expect to have more or less privacy from the U.S. government than you do today?

10% 77% 13%

More privacy Less privacy Don't know

ALL

20% 58% 22%

Good thing Bad thing Don't know

ALL

GOOD OR BAD FOR SOCIETY? Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing?

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Most think there will be more gun violence in the next ten years – as well as more gun laws

30

GUN VIOLENCE IN TEN YEARS Do you think there will be more or less gun violence in America

in ten years than there is now? (Showing All)

58%

18%

23%

More gun violence Less gun violence Don't know

GUN CONTROL LAWS IN TEN YEARS Do you think there will be more or fewer gun control laws in the

United States in ten years? (Showing All)

58%

20%

22%

More gun laws Fewer gun laws Don't know

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Imagining 2024: A new social issue consensus is emerging

31

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73%

15% 12% Yes

No

Don't know

SAME SEX MARRIAGE IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think same sex marriage will be legal in the

majority of U.S. states?

Overwhelming majorities believe same-sex marriage and marijuana will be legal in most states in 10 years

MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think marijuana will be legal in the majority of

U.S. states?

66% 21%

13% Yes

No

Don't know

Millennials: • 66% say Yes on same sex marriage

• 57% say Yes on marijuana

ALL ALL

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Most expect climate change to affect them more in 10 years

33

AFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think the effects of climate change will affect you more or less than they do today?

54% 20% 26%

Will affect me more Will affect me less Don't know

ALL

75% 72% 63% 60% 50% 46% 43% 3% Extreme

temperaturesMore severe

stormsSevere droughts Melting polar ice

capsFood shortages Extinction of

species, such aspolar bears

Coastalcommunitiesunder water

Don't know

ALL

MOST OBVIOUS EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARS Which of the effects of climate change will be more obvious in 10 years?

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FEWER CHILDREN IN 10 YEARS Do you think Americans will be having fewer children 10 years

from now than they are having today?

A majority envision a weakening of the traditional family unit in 10 years

54% 27% 19%

ALL

Yes

No

Don't know

21%

54% 25%

ALL

Better

Worse

Don't know

RAISING CHILDREN IN 10 YEARS Do you think children in the United States will be raised better or

worse in 10 years than they are now?

• Millennials: 39% say Yes • Age 65+: 68% say Yes

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FUTURE U.S. PRESIDENTS Ten years from now, do you think the United States will have elected the following?

67% 31% 30%

14%

A female president A Hispanic president An African-Americanpresident

A gay president

ALL (Showing yes)

Two-thirds think a female president will be elected in the next 10 years

• Millennials: 39% say African-American • Generation X: 38% say African-American

• Baby Boomers: 23% say African-American • Age 65+: 22% say African-American

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Imagining 2024: The United States of Technology is in our future

36

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A majority believe technology has made their lives better and will continue to do so in 10 years

37

63% 60%

16% 16% 21% 24%

Better Worse Don't Know

TECHNOLOGY’S IMPACT ON LIFE Since 2004, have personal technology advancements made your life better or worse?

In 10 years, do you think that advancements in technology, such as phones, computers, TVs and music players, will make your life better or worse than it is today?

ALL

IN 10 YEARS SINCE 2004

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Tech entrepreneurs are most likely to be considered the future leaders of our society

38

44% 37% 34% 23% 20% 16% 22%

Technologyentrepreneurs

Political figures Businessleaders

Celebrities Philanthropicleaders

Athletes None of theabove

ALL

LEADERS IN SOCIETY IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, which groups of people will be considered leaders in our society? Please choose any that apply.

• Age 65+: 53% say Tech entrepreneurs • Millennials: 33% say Tech entrepreneurs

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Americans are equally likely to say they will prefer communicating face-to-face and via technology in ten years

39

63% 41%

29% 44%

9% 15%

Face-to-face Via technoogy Don't KnowALL

PREFERRED METHOD OF COMMUNICATION Which method of communication do you prefer today?

Ten years from now, do you think you will opt to communicate face-to-face or via technology when given the choice?

TEN YEARS FROM NOW TODAY

Millennials today • 48% say Face-to-face

• 38% say Via technology

Millennials 10 years from now • 41% say Face-to-face

• 41% say Via technology

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Most foresee technology surrounding them in 10 years

40

WIDESPREAD USAGE OF TECHNOLOGY IN 10 YEARS Do you think the following technology will be widely used in 10 years?

59% 70% 60% 23% 14% 20% 18% 16% 20% Robots Drones Medicine capable of monitoring and

reporting changes in the body

Yes

No

Don't Know

ALL

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Most Americans expect companies to collect more information in ten years and think that will be a bad thing

41

INFORMATION COLLECTION BY PRIVATE COMPANY IN TEN YEARS In ten years, do you expect private companies to collect more or less information about you

than they do today?

73% 12% 15% More information Less information Don't know

ALL

18% 56% 26%

Good thing Bad thing Don't know

ALL

GOOD OR BAD FOR SOCIETY? Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing?

• Age 65+: 83% say More information • Millennials: 54% say More information

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Most do not say social media will make their lives better in the next decade

42

41% 36%

24% 26% 35% 38%

Better Worse Don't knowALL

EFFECT OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON LIFE In 2004, Facebook had just been created, and the term "social media" had not been coined. Has social

media made your life better or worse in the past ten years? Do you think that social media will make your life better or worse in the next decade?

IN NEXT DECADE PAST 10 YEARS

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More than half are not convinced they will subscribe to a live TV service in 10 years

43

45%

26%

29%

Live TV service

Exclusivelystreaming TV showson-demand

Don't know

TV SERVICE IN TEN YEARS In ten years, do you think you will have a live TV service (such as cable or satellite) or will you have canceled your live TV

service in favor of exclusively streaming TV shows on-demand (through companies such as Netflix and Amazon)?

ALL

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Imagining 2024: The way we will live

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A majority expect to attend religious services more frequently in 10 years

45

*Reduced base sizes

19%

34%

38%

8%

ALL

Frequently

At leastsometimes

Never

Don't know

52%

22%

26%

IF ATTEND

Morefrequently

Lessfrequently

Don't know

CURRENT RELIGIOUS SERVICES ATTENDANCE Do you currently attend religious services frequently, at least

sometimes or never?

RELIGIOUS SERVICES ATTENDANCE IN 10 YEARS IF ATTEND: In ten years, do you expect to attend religious

services more frequently or less frequently than you do now?

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22%

56%

22% More common

Less common

Don't know

MARRIAGE 10 YEARS FROM NOW Do you think marriage in the United States will be more or

less common ten years from now than it is today?

DIVORCE 10 YEARS FROM NOW Do you think divorce in the United States will be more or

less common ten years from now than it is today?

63% 15%

22% More common

Less common

Don't know

A majority think marriage will be less common 10 years from now and divorce will be more common

ALL ALL

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IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

A vast majority say they have a car now and think they and their children will have a car in 10 years

47

77% 75% 72%

23% 14% 15% 11% 14%

Yes No Don't Know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL

CAR OWNERSHIP Do you currently own a car?

In ten years, do you think you will own a car? IF PARENT: In ten years, do you think all of your children of driving age will choose to own and drive a car?

IN TEN YEARS CURRENTLY CHILDREN, IN TEN YEARS

Page 48: America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey – Key Findings

The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Almost half think they will be driving less frequently in ten years

48

27%

45%

28%

ALL

Morefrequently

Lessfrequently

Don't know

FREQUENCY OF DRIVING IN 10 YEARS Do you think you will drive more or less frequently in ten years than you do today?

• Millennials: 25% say Less frequently • Generation X: 33% say Less frequently • Baby Boomers: 52% say Less frequently • Age 65+: 79% say Less frequently

Page 49: America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey – Key Findings

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IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

20 percent expect to buy an electric car in ten years, and 69 percent expect gas prices to rise by more than $2 per gallon

49

20%

69%

47%

14%

33%

17%

Yes No Don't Know

ALL

ELECTRIC CAR IN 10 YEARS In ten years, will you have bought an electric car?

GAS PRICE INCREASE OF MORE THAN $2 PER GALLON IN 10 YEARS In ten years, do you think gas prices per gallon

will have increased by more than $2?

Page 50: America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey – Key Findings

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IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Almost half think airline delays will be longer in 10 years than they are today

50

47%

21%

32%

ALL

Longer

Shorter

Don't know

AIRLINE DELAYS IN 10 YEARS In ten years, do you think airline delays will be longer or shorter

than they are today?

Page 51: America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey – Key Findings

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IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Half say they weighed less 10 years ago and nearly half say they will weigh less in 10 years

51

32%

19%

50% 49%

17%

31%

More Less Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL

WEIGHT 10 YEARS AGO AND IN 10 YEARS Ten years ago, did you weigh more or less than you do today?

In ten years, do you expect to weigh more or less than you do today?

IN 10 YEARS TEN YEARS AGO

Page 52: America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey – Key Findings

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IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

More say they will read printed books than printed newspapers or magazines 10 years from now

52

36%

50% 46% 37%

18% 13%

Yes No Don't know

BOOKS NEWSPAPERS/MAGAZINES

READING PRINTED NEWSPAPERS/MAGAZINES AND BOOKS IN 10 YEARS Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any newspapers or magazines printed on paper?

Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any books printed on paper?

ALL ALL

Page 53: America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey – Key Findings

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IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Football, Basketball, Baseball and Soccer are the sports Americans most expect to be more popular in 10 years

15% 22% 25% 24% 32% 29% 34% 39% 34% 38% 43% 27%

31% 30% 30% 31% 35% 34% 33% 37% 35%

40% 58%

47% 46% 46% 37% 36% 33% 29% 29% 27% 17% Morepopular

Don't know

Lesspopular

53

POPULARITY OF SPORTS 10 YEARS FROM NOW Ten years from now, do you think each of these sports will be more popular or less popular in the

United States than it is today? (Multiple Responses Permitted)

ALL

Page 54: America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey – Key Findings

The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Americans are more likely to say they will go to the movies less instead of more in ten years

54

11%

46% 27%

16% More frequently

Same amount

Less frequently

Don't know

MOVIE GOING IN 10 YEARS In ten years, do you think you will go to the movies more frequently,

less frequently or about the same amount as you do currently?

ALL

Page 55: America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey – Key Findings

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IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Most think The Simpsons will no longer be on the air in ten years

55

36%

64%

Yes

No

THE SIMPSONS STILL ON TV 10 YEARS FROM NOW? Ten years from now, do you think The Simpsons will still be on TV?

• Millennials: 51% say Yes

ALL