Alaska's Fiscal Challenge:

BUDGET ADVISORY COMMISSIONANCHORAGE, AK

APRIL 8, 2014

How deep, how long, potential solutions and what they mean for Anchorage

Brad KeithleyKeithley Consulting, LLC

Joe RiggsMember, BAC

How deep, how longBillion Oil &

“Other” Revenues

Spending “Deficit” Sustainable Budget*

FY 2015 $2.2 $6.1 $3.9 $4.5FY 2016 $2.2 $5.5 $3.2 $4.5FY 2017 $3.1 [$5.0] $1.9 $4.5FY 2018 $3.2 [$4.6] $1.4 $4.6FY 2019 $3.7 $1.1 $4.8FY 2020 $4.5 $0.4 $4.9FY 2021 $4.4 $0.7 $5.1FY 2022 $4.2 $1.1 $5.3FY 2023 $4.2 $1.2 $5.4FY 2024 $4.2 $1.4 $5.6

*Sustainable budget calculated per ISER formula.

Potential solutions Spending reductions

Capital budget (already at minimal levels)

Operating Budget (Commonwealth North solutions, continuing down the same path as FY 2016)

New revenue Proposals (Taxes, PFD cap/diversion)

Potential: $250 per Alaskan/$1000 per family of four = ~$200 million in additional revenue

Sustainable budget Recognizes Alaska is a two-income family, uses both –

preserves dividend, no new taxes unless needed above sustainable revenue levels

FY 2016 Operating Budget

What does that mean for Anchorage

Reduced … … revenue sharing

… support for ASD

… capital grants/spending (affects both government & private Anchorage economies)

Potential state tax and PFD diversion Narrows Muni revenue options

Affects private economy

Move to a sustainable budget Mitigates impact of deeper budget cuts and tax/PFD