19th february,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice

Newsletter

Volume 5, Issue I

February 19, 2015


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Government of India Forecasts 2014-15 Rice

Production at 103.04 Million Tons, Down 3%

from Last Year

Feb 18, 2015

The government of India, in its second advance estimates for major crops, has estimated India's

rice production for 2014-15 marketing year (October 2014 - September 2015) at around 103.04

million tons, down about 3% from an estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14, according to a

statement from the agriculture Ministry.The decline can be attributed to late arrival of monsoons

in June 2014 delaying the kharif main rice crop planting process in many key rice growing

areas.According to government sources, India's total food grain production, which includes

Kharif (June - December) and Rabi (November - March) crops, in 2014-15 is likely to reach


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around 257.077 million tons, down about 3% from last year's 265.57 million tons. In its first

advanced estimates, the Indian government has estimated 2014-15 (October 2014 - September

2015) kharif rice production at around 88.02 million tons, down about 4% from around 91.69

million tons produced during the same time in 2013-14

USDA estimates India's milled rice production at 102 million tons in MY 2014-15 (October -

September), down about 4% from an estimated 106.54 million tons produced in MY 2013-14. It

expects India to export around 8.7 million tons of rice during 2015, down by about 14% from

about 10.15 million tons exported in 2014.

Japan Buys and Sells 412 tons of Whole

Grain Rice and 640 Tons of Broken Rice in

7th SBS Tender of FY 2014

Feb 18, 2015

Japan has bought and sold a total of around 412 tons of whole grain/brown rice of the U.S.,

Australia and Thailand origins; and around 640 tons of broken rice of the U.S. and Thailand

origins, in the seventh SBS (Simultaneous Buy-Sell) tender of FY 2014 (April 2014 – March

2015), according to official sources.The tonnage and price details of different types of rice

imported are as follows:

A tax equivalent to about 8% is applicable on all purchases and sales.Under the SBS tender,

Japan government buys rice of various origins from Japanese traders at one price and then

simultaneously sells the rice back to those same companies, at a higher price, for sale in the

domestic market. Usually the difference between the buying price and selling price is set by the

government.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Seller Price

Ideas Continue to Increase; However,

Limited Demand at New Levels

Feb 18, 2015


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The U.S. cash market moved higher yet again today rallying at least $0.50 per cwt (about $11 per

ton) from the levels that were seen trading last week.Most buyers, however, continue to purchase

hand to mouth and have not come off of their price ideas as of yet while sellers want to see how

much higher this market can run before letting their rice go and as a result trading remains very

limited.Meanwhile, cold winter weather has blanketed the US Mid-south with snow and ice,

bringing the movement of rice to a standstill until the roads thaw out.

Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Continue to Rally as Pressure

Mounts on Shorts to Exit

Feb 18, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery are currently listed 12 cents per cwt (about $3 per

ton) higher at $10.800 per cwt (about $238 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The

other grains are seen trading mostly lower this morning: soybeans are currently seen about 0.7%

lower, wheat is listed about 0.1% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.6% lower.U.S.

stocks traded mostly lower on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of the Fed minutes

amid continued uncertainty over the Greece-euro zone negotiations.

Stocks closed near highs on Tuesday on encouraging reports out of Greece, with the S&P 500

setting its second record for 2015 and the Dow Jones industrial average above 18,000. The

Nasdaq was slightly off its dotcom bubble high of 5,048.62. Markets continued to await a

resolution in the Greece debt talks. The country will submit a request to the euro zone on

Thursday to extend a "loan agreement'' for up to six months but Germany said no such deal is on

offer and Athens must stick to the terms of its existing international bailout, Reuters said. The

Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand dropped 0.8%, the biggest drop

since the revamped series started in November 2009, after falling 0.2% in December. It was the

third straight month of decline in the PPI.

U.S. housing starts fell in January as ground breaking for single-family projects slipped off a 6-

1/2-year peak, but stayed at levels consistent with a gradually improving housing market. The

Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 48.3 points, or 0.26%, at 18,000.09. The S&P 500

opened down 6.04 points, or 0.29%, at 2,094.21, with energy the greatest decliner and utilities

and health care the only advancing sectors. The Nasdaq opened down 7.93 points, or 0.16

percent, at 4,891.82. Gold is currently trading a touch higher, crude oil is seen trading about

1.1% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.3% higher at 8:30am Chicago time.


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USDA Post Estimates 2015-16 Malaysia Rice

Imports to Increase 1% y/y to One Million

Tons

Feb 18, 2015

USDA Post has estimated Malaysia's milled rice imports to increase to around one million tons

in MY 2015-16 (January 2015 - December 2015), up about 1% from around 989,000 tons due to

an expected slow demand growth.The Post estimates Malaysia's milled rice production to

increase slightly to around 1.81 million tons in MY 2015-16 from an estimated 1.8 million tons

in MY 2014-15 due to expected increase in rice planting area, better irrigation system and the

use of high yielding paddy varieties.

The government provides various incentives such as subsidized seeds, fertilizer and pesticides to

encourage increase in paddy production. Currently, government's support price for paddy is


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around RM1,200 (around $331) per ton. Governement provides support to only 15% broken rice

variety.USDA Post estimates domestic consumption to increase slightly to around 2.82 million

tons in 2015-16 from an estimated 2.8 million tons in 2014-15 due to an increase in immigrant

labor population.

Thailand Plans to Auction Additional One

Million Tons of Rice in February 2015

Feb 18, 2015

The government of Thailand is planning to auction

another one million tons of rice from its stockpiles in

February 2015, according to Reuters. The government

has reportedly approved sale of around 500,000 tons of

rice from the one million tons, including 850,000 tonnes

of 5% white rice and 150,000 tonnes of Hom Mali rice,

on January 29, 2015.Commerce Ministry sources told

media sources that the first auction of this year received

bids relatively higher than the floor prices.While the

floor price for white rice was set at 8-10 baht a kilogram

(around $246-$307 per ton), while the market price is

now 13 baht per kilogram (around $399 per ton). The

floor price for Hom Mali fragrant rice was set at 25 baht

per kilogram (around $767 per ton) against a market

price of 31-33 baht per kilogram (around $951-$1,012

per ton).The government sold around 350,039 tons of 5%

broken rice with bidding price range of around 7,650-

12,220 baht (around $235-$375) per ton and around

146,205 tons of Hommali rice with bidding price range of around 23,010-31,000 baht (around

$707-$952) per ton.

Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today

Feb 18, 2015

Vietnam rice sellers are out today due to national holiday. Other Asia rice sellers kept their

quotes unchanged today.


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5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on

Vietnam 5% rice last shown at around $355 - $365 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around

$390 - $400 per ton, about $45 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $345 -

$355 per ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is quoted at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $40 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice last shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around

$355 - $365, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $305 - $315 per

ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at

around $385 - $395 per ton, on par with Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $385 - $395 per

ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $15 per ton

premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice last shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100%

broken rice is shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Pakistan

broken sortexed rice quoted at around $275 - $285 per ton.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Continue to Rally as Pressure

Mounts on Short Specs

Feb 18, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery settled 19 cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) higher at

$10.870 per cwt (about $240 per ton). Rough rice futures continued their rally today as the

market has turned positive and has likely triggered additional short covering on the part of specs

who had built up sizeable positions in the previous weeks. Today’s action signals that additional

buying will likely follow and could see prices test $11.000 per cwt (about $243 per ton) in


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coming sessions. The other grains finished sharply lower today; Soybeans closed about 1.2%

lower at $9.9575 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.3% lower at $5.2800 per bushel, and corn

finished the day about 1.5% lower at $3.8375 per bushel.

U.S. stocks initially pared losses on Wednesday before returning to earlier lows as investors

digested release of the Fed minutes that indicated continued patience, amid continued

developments in the Greece-euro zone negotiations. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield came off its

highs to trade near 2.05 percent following the release of the Fed minutes. Treasury Secretary

Lew spoke with Greek finance minister this morning, and urged the Greek Prime Minister to find

constructive path forward with European Union and the International Monetary Fund, Reuters

said. Greece will submit a request to the euro zone on Thursday to extend its loan program for up

to six months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 20 points, or 0.11%, to 18,027. The Nasdaq

continued to outperform the major indices and held near 15-year highs, the only index to hold

positive on the Fed minutes. Stocks closed near highs on Tuesday on encouraging reports out of

Greece, with the S&P 500 setting its second record for 2015 and the Dow Jones industrial

average above 18,000. The Nasdaq was slightly off its dotcom bubble high of 5,048.62. Gold is

trading about 0.2% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 3.3% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen

trading about 0.1% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Tuesday, there were 2,550 contracts

traded, up from 2,547 contracts traded on Friday. Open interest – the number of contracts

outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 299 contracts to 9,670.

Philippines Domestic Rice Prices Increase

Sharply in 2014

Feb 18, 2015

Average domestic rice prices in the Philippines increased sharply in 2014, according to data from

the Philippines Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS), despite importing around 1.8 million

tons of rice during the year (including 1.5 million tons of 2014 imports and 300,000 tons of 2013

residual imports) to replenish rice stocks and control price hikes.

The average retail price of WMR in the Philippines increased to around P42.32 per kilogram in

2014 (January - December), up about 15% from around P36.87 per kilogram in 2013, while the

average wholesale price of WMR increased to around P39.51 per kilogram in 2014, up about

15% from around P34.48 per kilogram in 2013.


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Average retail price of RMR increased to around P38.96 per kilogram in 2014, up about 16%

from around P33.70 per kilogram during the same period in 2013. Average wholesale price of

RMR increased to around P36.78 per kilogram in 2014, up about 17% from around P31.56 per

kilogram in 2013, the BAS says.

In terms of USD per ton (using historical exchange rates), the average retail price of WMR stood

at about $955 per ton in 2014, up about 10% from around $870 during 2013. Average wholesale

price of WMR increased to about $890 per ton in 2014, up about 9% from around $813 in 2013.

Average retail price of RMR increased to about $877 per ton in 2014, up about 10% from around

$795 in 2013. Average wholesale price of RMR increased to about $824 per ton in 2014, up

about 11% from around $744 in 2013.

Average domestic rice prices in the Philippines declined slightly in January 2015 for the fourth

consecutive month, according to the BAS.

In January 2015, average retail prices of well-milled rice (WMR) declined to around P42.8 per

kilogram, slightly down from around P43.16 per kilogram in December 2014 and up about 8%


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from around P39.62 per kilogram in January 2014. Average wholesale prices of WMR declined

to around P39.19 per kilogram, down about 2% from around P40.1 per kilogram in December

2014 and up about 6% from around P37.11 per kilogram in January 2014.

Average retail prices of regular milled rice (RMR) declined to around P38.51 per kilogram,

down about 1% from around P39.09 per kilogram in December 2014 and up about 5% from

around P36.28 per kilogram in January 2014. Average wholesale prices of RMR declined to

around P35.7 per kilogram, down about 3% from around P36.69 per kilogram in December 2014

and up about 4% from around P34.47 per kilogram in January 2014.

In terms of USD per ton (using historical exchange rates), average retail prices of WMR declined

to around $961 per ton in January 2015, slightly down from around $967 per ton in December

2014. Average wholesale prices of WMR declined to around $880 per ton, down about 2% from

around $899 per ton in December 2014. Average retail prices of RMR declined to around $864

per ton, down about 1% from around $876 per ton in December 2014. Average wholesale prices

of RMR declined to around $801 per ton, down about 3% from around $822 per ton in December

2014.

The National Food Auhority (NFA) has decided to import another 500,000 tons of rice this year

in government-to-government deals.

Global Rice Quotes

February 19th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 415-425 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 355-365 ↔

India 5% broken 390-400 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 345-355 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 410-420 ↓

Cambodia 5% broken 430-440 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 480-490 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken NQ ↔

Argentina 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 365-375 ↔


Pakistan 25% broken 305-315 ↔


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Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 355-365 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 470-480 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 405-415 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 385-395 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 385-395 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 920-930 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 460-470 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 785-795 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 320-330 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 365-375 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 280-290 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 380-390 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD/Ton FOB Vessel

Declining Use of Certified Seeds May Affect

International Reputation of Italian Rice, Says

Seeds Association

Feb 18, 2015


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Certified paddy rice usage has been declining over the last four years and Assosementi, the

association of Italian seeding companies, has expressed concern that the trend does not imply

promising future for the Italian rice sector. According to Assosementi, certified paddy seeds

acreage in Italy has declined about 30% from around 13,700 hectares (5.6% of total paddy

acreage) in 2011 to around 9,700 hectares (4.4% of total paddy acreage) in 2014.

The total paddy acreage in the country has declined by about 10% to around 219,500 hectares in

2014 from around 246,500 hectares in 2011. It is understood that non-certified seeds will be used

on 30% of Italian paddy rice acreage during the crop year 2014-15 (September -

August).Assosementi says the use of certified seeds will ensure production of quality rice as well

as variety identity. According to the Head of the Rice Department of Assosementi, use of non-

certified seeds will not help in the development of newer varieties and Italian rice may also face

risk of declining competitiveness and reputation in the international market.


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FAO Forecasts Thailand 2015 Rice Exports

at 11 Million Tons, Up 7% from Last Year

Feb 18, 2015

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecasted Thailand's 2015 rice exports

at around 11 million tons, up about 7% from an estimated 10.2 million tons in 2014 despite an

expectation of a slight decline in production due to high levels of public stocks and government's

intentions to clear more of the existing rice stockpiles.The FAO estimates Thailand's 2014-15

aggregate paddy rice production at around 36.106 million tons (around 23.83 million tons, basis

milled), down about 2% from around 36.84 million tons (around 24.31 million tons, basis milled)

produced in 2013 due to an expected decline in output from the secondary season (January -

June).


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Planting for the 2014-15 secondary season crop began in early January and will continue till

mid-March. Weak monsoons from June to October 2014 and below-average rains between

November 2014 and early February 2015 have led to low reservoir levels in most of the northern

and central regions of the country. The FAO estimates output from the 2014-15 secondary

season at around 9 million tons (around 5.94 million tons, basis milled), down about 8% from

last year's 9.78 million tons (around 6.46 million tons, basis milled).

Domestic prices, which declined between March and May 2014 with the 2013-14 secondary

season harvest and continuous releases from public stocks, began increasing since June 2014 due

to the suspension of rice sales from Government warehouses. Average domestic prices of Thai

25% white rice remained almost stable at around 11,490 baht (around $351) per ton in January

2015 from around 11,485 baht (around $349) per ton in December 2014 due to increased export

activity.

USDA estimates Thailand to produce 29.545 million tons of paddy rice (around 19.5 million

tons, milled basis) and export around 11 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (January -

December 2015).

FAO Forecasts Sri Lanka Rice Prices to Ease

in February 2015

Feb 18, 2015

The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) has estimated Sri Lanka's domestic rice

prices, which were relatively high but stable in December 2015, to decline in February following

the recent government's decision to release about 100,000 tons of imported rice stocks into the

market as well as the ongoing 2015 main "Maha" season harvest (September - March) which

began in January and will continue till March.The FAO estimates 2015 rice imports to be lower

than estimated 520,000 tons in 2014 due to an expected recovery in this year's rice production.

But they are likely to remain above the 2009-2013 average.

The FAO has forecasted Sri Lanka's total paddy at around 4.1 million tons in 2015 (around 2.7

million tons, basis milled), up about 18% from around 3.5 million tons (around 2.3 million tons,

basis milled) produced in 2014.Adequate rains from October to January in the rice growing

regions of the eastern, central and north-western areas benefitted planting operations and

replenished irrigation water in reservoirs.


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However, floods in key rice producing regions of the northern and eastern provinces are

expected to reduce 2015 paddy output by around 410,246 tons. Considering the estimated flood

damage and assuming near-average yields, the FAO forecasts the 2015 "Maha" season paddy

output at around 2.7 million tons (around 1.8 million tons, basis milled), up about 19% from

2014.USDA estimates Sri Lanka to produce around 2.7 million tons of rice, basis milled (around

3.97 million tons, basis paddy) and import around 120,000 tons in MY 2014-15 (October 2014 -

September 2015).

News & Politics

19th february,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine