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“Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick
themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.”
~ Winston Churchill
Empirical - Where possible, I develop hypotheses and perform tests before mak-
ing a decision; 17%Data-driven - I collect and analyse data as much as possible before making a
decision; 42%
Collaborative - I seek to co-laborate on decisions as much as possible; 32%
Intuitive - I primarily use my intuition in making deci-
sions; 10%
Q: Which of the following best describes your personal approach to making significant man-
agement decisions?
Take the course of action sug-gested by the
data
Collect more data Reanalyse the data
Ignore the data0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q: When taking a decision, if the available data contradicted your gut feeling, what would you do?
Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with very little interest in people or in the world of reality.
A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.
Rational messages deliver short term responses
Rational messaging Combined approach Emotional priming0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Very
larg
e di
rect
effe
ct
Source: Binet & Field 2013
Rational messaging Combined approach Emotional priming0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Very
larg
e pr
ofit
effe
cts
Source: Binet & Field 2013
But emotions are more profitable
1 year 2 years 3+ years0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Emotional campaignsRational campaignsPr
ofit
effe
ct
Source: Binet & Field 2013
Especially over the long term
Smaller salience effect Large salience effect V large salience effect0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Very
larg
e pr
ofit
effe
cts
Source: Binet & Field 2013
Mental availability is crucial
Fame campaigns Other campaigns0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Ann
ualis
ed E
SOV
effic
ienc
yFame strategies are extremely efficient
Source: Binet & Field 2013
Creatively awarded Not creatively awarded0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Bud
get e
ffici
ency
met
ric
Creativity is the most important factor
Source: The Long and Short of It, IPA
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Share of market
Shar
e of
voi
ce
SOV > SOM: brands tend to grow
SOV < SOM: brands tend to shrink
Source: Binet & Field 2013
Budget is almost as important as creative
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%0123456789
10
Activation share of budget
Num
ber o
f ver
y la
rge
effe
cts
Optimum: 60:40 split
Source: Binet & Field 2013
…and budget allocation matters as well
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Target ex-isting cus-
tomers
Target new customers
Target whole market
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0 ESOV efficiencyNo. of business effects
Loyalty strategies underperform
Source: Binet & Field 2013
Double jeopardy is an empirical law in marketing where, with few exceptions, the lower market share brands in a market have both far fewer buyers in a time period and also lower brand loyalty.
Brands Market share Absolute penetration
Relative penetration
Share of category
requirements
Avg. purchases of
brandColgate 22 34 40 38 3.6Macleans 11 22 26 32 3.2Crest 10 22 26 31 3.1Aquafresh 9 20 24 30 3.1Sensodyne 6 11 13 29 3Mentadent 5 11 13 28 2.9Signal 4 11 13 28 2.9Gibbs 4 11 13 28 2.9Sainsbury 4 8 10 28 2.9Superdrug 3 5 6 27Boots 2 6 7 27Ultrabrite 2 6 7 27Tesco 2 4 5 27Euthymol 1 2 2 26Zendium 0.1 0.2 0.2 26
The double jeopardy rule
Source: Byron Sharp
Brands Market share Absolute penetration
Relative penetration
Share of category
requirements
Avg. purchases of
brandColgate 22 34 40 38 3.6Macleans 11 22 26 32 3.2Crest 10 22 26 31 3.1Aquafresh 9 20 24 30 3.1Sensodyne 6 11 13 29 3Mentadent 5 11 13 28 2.9Signal 4 11 13 28 2.9Gibbs 4 11 13 28 2.9Sainsbury 4 8 10 28 2.9Superdrug 3 5 6 27 2.8Boots 2 6 7 27 2.8Ultrabrite 2 6 7 27 2.8Tesco 2 4 5 27 2.8Euthymol 1 2 2 26 2.8Zendium 0.1 0.2 0.2 26 2.7
The double jeopardy rule
Source: Byron Sharp
Study #1All brands in 13 industries; 100 attitudinal variables
Study #2Top 10 brands, 30 other industries; 200 attitudinal variables
Source: Kennedy, Long and Ehrenberg. Data: TGI
“Overall, the individual brands percentage profiles deviated from each other by an average of 2 or 3 percentage points, which as the authors note “is… in effect zero”
Only around 8% of the individual deviations were more than 5 percentage points, and even these larger deviations averaged at only about 9.
Just 2% of individual deviations were 10 points or more.”
Source: Kennedy, Long and Ehrenberg. Data: TGI
Emotion trumps rationality……stop worrying about persuading people
Aim for fame……stop trying to differentiate your brand
Creativity trumps budget, just……the ‘no media budget’ approach is a myth
More new customers = better loyalty……invest less in squeezing more from your customers
Your brand customers are the same as category buyers……stop tightening your targeting