The connected consumer shapes the future

1© GfK 2016 | planung&analyse Insights 2016 | Nuremberg, June 1st, 2016

The Connected

Consumershapes the future

Robert Wucher | Head of Technology and Digital Client Solutions


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-INozHR7TI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-INozHR7TI


‘Mixed realityis a technology thatcan simultaneously

upend TVs, desktopPCs, laptops, and

phones.’**Source: http://www.wired.com/2016/04/magic-leap-vr/

© GfK 2016 | planung&analyse Insights 2016 | Nuremberg, June 1st, 2016


Big changes ahead, but back to reality:

Where do we currently stand in the mass market?

Internet of

DocumentsE-libraries, document

based webpages

Internet of

CommerceE-commerce,

e-banking and

stock trading

websites

Internet of

ApplicationsRise of mobile

internet, Web 2.0

The past

Internet of

PeopleMass mobile adaption,

social networks

Today


Share of time spent online in %

Multiscreen Online Population 14+ years: People going online on both, Desktop and Smartphone (Desktop@home usage only)

Source: GfK Crossmedia Link, November 2015

Internet of people = Mobile + App

Online Population 14+ years

55%

Mobile

DesktopMobile BrowserApp

94%

App

Multiscreen Online Population 14+ years(60% of Online Population)


The key-questionin the Internet of People era is the connection between online usage and purchase behavior.



Our assets for the digital age: Crossmedia Link Panel

GfK’s Crossmedia Link continuously captures consumers’ purchase,

offline media and digital behavior (cross-device) in a single source

**

**

***

* OOH: based on questionnaire.

For ex post-campaign analyses only.

In sum with internet@home only

** TV, Mobile: Data imputation to total online mass

*** InHomeScanning: FMCG & Durables. In sub-panels: Travel, Finance, etc.


A look ahead:

The Internet of Things will bring about a lot more Big Data

Internet of

DocumentsE-libraries, document

based webpages

Internet of

CommerceE-commerce,

e-banking and

stock trading

websites

Internet of

ApplicationsRise of mobile

internet, Web 2.0

The past

Internet of

PeopleMass mobile adaption,

social networks

Today

Internet of

ThingsConnected devices

and machines

Tomorrow


The next big things

Next to computers, tablets and smartphones, in the years ahead

Big Data will primarily come from homes, bodies and cars

Connected cars

Enabling e.g. enhanced safety

and entertainment features,

predictive maintenance, smart

home integration, and auto-

nomous driving

Smart home

Enabling home automation in

areas such as security and

control, energy and lighting,

entertainment, health and

domestic appliances

Wearables

Body-borne computing devices

such as activity trackers, smart-

watches or -glasses, tracking

health-/fitness-related metrics and

offering smartphone-like features


The next big things: Smart home

Consumers‘ interest in smart homes is huge, even in comparably

more reserved Western European countries

78%of global consumers

agree that the smart

home is an appealing

concept

Smart home overall

appeal by country (%)

Source: GfK Smart Home study 2015, +7,000 consumers interviewed in seven countries, October 2015


Wearables are forecasted to grow almost triple digits in Western

Europe this year, driven by activity trackers and smartwatches

As they gain on

the US market’s

early lead, wearables

will achieve $1.2 bn

and $0.7 bn growth

respectively4

9

17

610

16

1

19

33

23

37

50

13

5

2014 2015 2016

Western Europe Developed APAC China North America Other regions

Wearables units

by region (mn)

Source: GfK Trends and Forecasting, February 2016

The next big things: Wearables


Yet, growth needs to be put into perspective: It will take years until

‘next big things’ become a smartphone-like phenomenon - if at all

Source: GfK Trends and Forecasting, February 2016

Smartwatches will reach a ratio of

1 in 10 compared to smartphone

sales in 2018 and be worth 20 bn USD.

=

The next big things: Wearables


Big Data challengesthe market researchindustry at its core -so is this the end of market research?



Our assets for the digital age: Driving change in three key areas

No, but market research needs to transform to be able to leverage its

strengths and assets in the Big Data era

New skills

In order to bring our network of

Marketing Scientists to the next

level, we are hosting an annual

GfK Big Data Science training

program.

New technology

In order to enable our Marketing

Scientists to integrate and analyze

Big Data, we have developed GfK

Data Lake, our Big Data analytics

tool and IT environment.

New structures

In order to address the needs of

this challenging environment,

dedicated expert teams are

required, hence we have set up

GfK Data Lab.


Our assets for the digital age: Data strategy

Using high quality market research data as starting point and

reference layer, then integrating data from further sources…

360° understanding

of market realities

All relevant

GfK data

GfK data

partnerships

Client

data

Open/public

data


Our assets for the digital age: Data Lake

…utilizing Big Data technology to gain comprehensive understanding

of ever more complex consumers and markets

360° understanding

of market realities

All relevant

GfK data

GfK data

partnerships

Client

data

Open/public

data

GfK Data Lake


An example: Understanding a coffee brands’ sales by integrating

numerous data sources directly and indirectly related to coffee

Sales

Data

Purchase

Data

Social Media &

Weather Data

Brand

& Adv. Data

Monthly

Daily

Continuous

Different time resolution

Weekly

Same time resolution


Predictive model (sales in MEUR)

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Sales_real Sales_pred

Trying to predict a coffee brands’ future sales based on

historic sales information alone

Consumer Panel

Category Sales

Brand Sales

Actual sales Predicted sales



Predictive accuracy benefits from adding information on

coffee machine sales…

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Consumer Panel

Category Sales

Brand Sales

Retail Panel

Coffee Machine

Sales




…and another great improvement in predictive accuracy is

obtained by adding Social Media and client data

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Consumer Panel

Category Sales

Brand Sales

Retail Panel

Coffee Machine

Sales

Social Media

Positive Buzz

Client Data

Advertising Tracking




Finally, a smart integration of publicly available data leads to

very satisfying predictive performance

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Consumer Panel

Category Sales

Brand Sales

Retail Panel

Coffee Machine

Sales

Social Media

Positive Buzz

Client Data

Advertising Tracking

Open Data

World Market Price

Holiday DensityActual sales Predicted sales


Key

takeaways

The connected

consumer is evolving

from connectivity to

complete and seamless

integration with

technology.

The future

is now.

This will bring

about a lot more data

– and challenge the

market research

industry at its core.

Yet, high quality

market research

data is still needed

to put Big Data, which

might be misleading if

relied on as sole source,

into context.


Based on new

skills, technologies

and structures, the

future lies in acting as

compass showing a

path through the

data thicket.


Your point of contact

+49 911 395 2523

Head of Technology &

Digital Client Solutions

Robert Wucher

[email protected]


Thank you!

planung & analyse Insights 2016

Nuremberg, June 1st, 2016