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Jack Griffin, CEO, Empirical Media gives his predictions of the four biggest trends that will affect media and information services in 2014. www.empiricalmedia.com
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GREY AREASSILVER LININGSWHITE SPACESAN EMPIRICAL APPROACH FOR MANAGING DISRUPTION
IIS 2014January 29 - 30, 2014JACK GRIFFIN, CEO
em·pir·i·calOriginating in, or based on, systematic observation, fact, or application of the scientific method
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an empirical approachA continuous process of understandingwhat is out in the open and constantly looking for what is hidden from view
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A new medium is never an addition to an old one, nor does it leave the old
one in peace. It never ceases to oppress the older media until it finds new shapes and positions for them.
– Marshall McLuhan, 1964
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“ ”
Two Kinds of Disruptors
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ones we CAN see
ones we MIGHT NOT see
The Change We Could See
MAGAZINES:
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The Change We Might Have Missed
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MAGAZINES:
In a single decade, a new magazine industry
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In a single decade, a new magazine industry
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The Change We Could See
MUSIC:
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220 MILLION SOLD: 1979 - 2010 (3 DECADES)
The Change We Might Have Missed
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MUSIC:
25 BILLION SONGS DOWNLOADED FROM ITUNES: 2001 - 2013 (1+ DECADE) 3.5 SONGS FOR EVERY PERSON ON EARTH!
Ongoing disruption and transformation in music
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NEWSPAPERS:
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The Change WeCould See
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NEWSPAPERS:
The Change We Might Have Missed
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NEWSPAPERS:
From high to low in ten years
The Change WeAre Seeing
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TELEVISION:
The Change WeMight Be Missing
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TELEVISION:
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TELEVISION:
Net!ix is almost as popular as cable among young adults
What Has Happened?
§Disconnection of media/entertainment products from physical devices
§Unbundling of content sections from one another
§ From producer in control to customer in control
§ From opt-out to opt-in
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The Opt-in World
§ 50% of Americans now own a Tablet or E-Reader
§ 56% own a SmartPhone
Source: Pew Research, 2013 and 2014
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Opt-in World for Content
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An app for everything
Opt-in World for Advertising
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Google adds optionality, December 2013 to charge only for clicked on ads
The Four Leaders of the Opt-in World
23Source: CoRise, October 2011
SOCIAL
COMMERCE ENTERTAINMENT
SEARCH
The Only Constant is Change
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DEMAND-BASED
PRICING
“The Now Accelerators”
MOBILITY& TOUCH
DATA &ANALYTICS
NEW CONTENT SOURCES
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A Framework for Managing Disruption
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GREYAREAS
SILVERLININGS
WHITESPACES
A continuous process of understandingwhat is out in the open
and constantly looking for whatis hidden from view
an empirical approach
A Framework for Managing Disruption
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“Understanding& Inquiring”
“Optimizing& Executing”
“Imagining& Extending”
GREYAREAS
SILVERLININGS
WHITESPACES
an empirical approach
GREYAREAS
GREY AREAS - “Understanding & Inquiring”
Some Empirical Questions
§What has the customer hired us to do?
§What are the real economics?
§Who is the real competition?
§What drives what?
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FORBES: Understanding Grey Areas
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SILVERLININGS
Some Empirical Questions
§What is (or could be) valuable?
§What is unique?
§What is working and what is not?
§What do the data tell us?
§What are the patterns?
§What do we need to stop doing?
SILVER LININGS - “Optimizing & Executing”
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New York Times Press Release, October 2013
THE NEW YORK TIMES: Executing Silver Linings
Website Redesign January 2014
Mobile Redesign Midyear 2013 727KDigital
Subscriptions
+28%Q3 2013
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WHITESPACES
WHITE SPACES - “Imagining & Extending”
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Some Empirical Questions
§What do we have permission to do?
§What kind of culture do we need?
§What capabilities will we need to add?
§What do we build? What do we acquire?
MEREDITH: Extending into White Spaces
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Conquering White Spaces the Net!ix Way
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Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Net"ix; Aug 01, 2009
According to Reed Hastings
§A highly-successful process-driven company
- With leading share in its market
- Minimal thinking required
- Few mistakes made – very e#cient
- Few curious innovator-mavericks remain
- Very optimized processes for its existing market
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§Market shifts due to new technology or new competitors or new business models
§Company is unable to adapt quickly, because the employees are extremely good at following the existing processes, and process adherence is the value system
§Company generally grinds painfully into irrelevance, due to inability to respond to the market shift
Then the Market Shifts…
36Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Net"ix; Aug 01, 2009
The best managers !gure out how to get great outcomes
by setting the appropriate context,
rather than by trying to control their people.
37Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Net"ix; Aug 01, 2009
§Strategy§Metrics§Assumptions§Objectives§Clearly-de$ned roles§Knowledge of the stakes§ Transparency around
decision-making
Context, not Control
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Provide the insight and understanding to enable sound decisions
CONTEXT CONTROL
§ Top-down decision-making§Management approval§Committees§Planning and process valued
more than results
Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Net"ix; Aug 01, 2009
With the Right People,
Instead of a Culture of Process Adherence,
Culture of Freedom and Responsibility,
Innovation and Self-Discipline
39Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Net"ix; Aug 01, 2009
GREYAREAS
SILVERLININGS
WHITESPACES
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What Will Je" Bezos Do?
Ever tried. Ever failed.No matter. Try again.Fail again. Fail better.
– Samuel Beckett “41
”GREYAREAS
We shall not cease from explorationAnd the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we startedAnd know the place for the first time.
– T. S. Eliot, Four Quartets
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“ ”WHITESPACES
