Marketing mix or attribution journey towards unified marketing analytics

MARKETING PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT: ATTRIBUTION

OR MARKETING MIX?

Thought Leadership by

2

Srishti Gupta President

IRI Media Center of Excellence

Joy Joseph Practice Leader, Marketing Productivity

IRI Strategic Analytics

TODAY’S PRESENTERS

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TODAY’S AGENDA

Why is this debate gathering momentum?

The case for and against Attribution

Pros and Cons with MMM

[MMM + Attribution]= Marketing Productivity Excellence

Vision for the future

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TODAY’S AGENDA






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INFORMATION EXPLOSION HAS CREATED A DIVERSE AND WELL INFORMED CONSUMER

Health Benefits Occasions

Lifestyle

Democracy of information access has led to a highly evolved

and diversified consumer landscape - targeted marketing has

become indispensable for consumer relevancy

Digital revolution has also created complex

shopper journeys - imperative to integrate online,

offline and touch points to engage across various

stages of the Shopper journey 6

PROLIFERATION OF MEDIA TOUCH POINTS HAS LED TO A COMPLEX CONSUMER JOURNEY

Digital ad optimization supported a far more complex engagement model, individual level

sales conversion rather than aggregate sales contributions were required - enter

Attribution Modeling

A parallel measurement environment was initially OK because Digital stakeholders initially

operated in a separate environment from traditional media, but not for long…

Speed

Granularity

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THESE SEPARATE WORLDS COLLIDED AS ADVERTISERS RAMPED UP ON DIGITAL INVESTMENTS, FREQUENTLY AT THE COST OF TRADITIONAL MEDIA

Digital and traditional media stakeholders began finding themselves in the same conference

room with increasing frequency - a comparison and even bake-off between the two

approaches was inevitable.

DIGITAL

AGENCIES

PUBLISHERS/ AD

NETWORKS/

EXCHANGES

CRM/ DIGITAL

MEDIA LEAD

INSIGHTS

BRAND

MANAGEMENT

TRADITIONAL

AGENCIES

MMM Sandbox

Attribution Sandbox

Buy-side

Sell-side

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TODAY’S AGENDA






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IN AN INCREASINGLY ADDRESSABLE WORLD, ATTRIBUTION EPITOMIZES MICRO-MARKETING

Un-Exposed

EXPOSED

Conversions (“Lift”)

Display + Search

Social + Search

Social + Search

Cro

ss-P

latf

orm

Syn

erg

ies

Lifestyles Purchase Behavior Demographics

Post-campaign

Diagnostics

10

HYPER-GRANULARITY UNCOVERS ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN THE LONG-TAIL OF DIGITAL OPTIONS

Leaderboard

Rectangle

Skyscra

per Internalize pay-for-performance:

Align growth opportunities with the

optimal execution mix

11

THIRD-PARTY MATCHING ALLOWS ATTRIBUTION PLATFORMS TO INTEGRATE ACROSS A WIDE RANGE OF DATA SOURCES

HH

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NEAR-REAL-TIME MEASUREMENT TO SUPPORT PROGRAMMATIC INITIATIVES

Mid-campaign Attribution Read

Optimize/Course-correct

Post-campaign Diagnostics/

Lessons Learned/

Set-up for next campaign

4-8 Week Cycle-time

DMP/ Conversion

Metrics

Programmatic/

DSP/Ad Exchanges DMP/ Conversion

Metrics

13

ATTRIBUTION COMES WITH ITS OWN ISSUES THOUGH…

• Attribution largely ignores offline touch points, resulting in potentially

inflated ROAS estimates

• Big data doesn’t mean “all data”- Integrating micro-data across multiple

sources with varying quality and inconsistent matching across multiple

third party sources potentially drive biased campaign lift estimates

• Attribution can be too short-term focused, optimizing over weeks rather

than quarters, so cannot address longer-term marketing planning decisions

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TODAY’S AGENDA






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MMM ENABLES PORTFOLIO STRATEGY BY OPTIMIZING ALLOCATION BY BRAND AS WELL AS BY PLATFORM

15

20

30

35

18

36

18

28

Brand A

Brand B

Brand C

Brand D

Current Optimal

Spend A

llocation

Cro

ss-P

latf

orm

Allo

cation

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BRAND CROSS-EFFECTS & HALO CAN BE LEVERAGED FOR EFFICIENT CROSS-BRAND CAMPAIGNS

A B C D

A

B

C

D

Halo Impact

Advert

ised B

ran

d

Cro

ss-B

rand H

alo

Sourc

es o

f M

ktg

. S

ale

s

17

MMM ALSO SUPPORTS STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESSES…

Long-t

erm

Bra

nd E

quity

Dem

and P

lannin

g

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DETERMINE OPTIMAL SPEND LEVELS ACCOUNTING FOR SATURATION AND SIMULATE MULTIPLE STRATEGIES FOR SUPPORTING INNOVATION…

New

Pro

duct

Mark

eting

Rig

ht

Spend

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MOST IMPORTANTLY, MMM ALSO SUPPORTS OFFLINE MEDIA PLANNING…

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MMM DISADVANTAGES

• Digital can present challenges for MMM, especially where granular data

(down to markets and trade areas) is infeasible

• Hyper-targeted and addressable campaigns do not have the scale to

register accurately in MMM

• Pure MMM takes a one size fits all approach, but marketing

responsiveness varies across consumer groups

• Synergies, especially across digital campaigns are difficult to read without

single source data (down to individual audience level), resulting in

underestimation of cross-platform campaigns in MMM

• Finally, the broad and encompassing demand measurement MMM

undertakes comes at a cost; long cycle times - model updates can often

take 8 or more weeks from data gathering to insights/execution

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LACK OF INTEGRATION CAN IMPACT INSIGHTS AND STRATEGY IN MULTIPLE WAYS...

Case Study:

12-week Cross-Media Campaign for a OTC Health Brand - MMM indicated the

media portion was around 70 percent of the lift suggested by the attribution model

(11.6 percent vs. 16.5 percent).

A major in-store shopper initiative at a large regional retail chain was skewing

Online Video up in the attribution study, while MMM was underestimating the

highly targeted Display campaign.

MTA Online Video Search TV

Sales Lift 5.7% 3.6% 7.2%

MMM Online Video Search TV Promo

Sales Lift 2.1% 2.9% 6.6% 4.1%

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WHAT DO YOU DO WHEN FACED WITH APPLES AND ORANGES?

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TODAY’S AGENDA






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DEFINE THE HORIZON & CADENCE…

Both MMM and


are great for the

purpose they are

intended for:

MMM guiding overall

marketing strategy


guiding tactical

campaign

performance

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DESIGNING THE INTEGRATED ANALYTIC MODEL

• Offline and non-marketing drivers’

impact from MMM are leveraged

as covariate controls in Attribution

Modeling to more accurately

quantify Digital/addressable

campaign lifts

• Lifts from Digital and other

targeted campaigns measured in

Attribution models are used in

MMM-driven budget allocation and

portfolio optimizations to more

accurately represent these

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SUCCESS DEPENDS UPON EXECUTION…AND ADOPTION

TODAY’S AGENDA






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SOME PREDICTIONS FOR THE VERY NEAR FUTURE…

Immediate future will see a more cogent integration of MMM and Attribution

A greater focus on targeting will push measurement down to at least household-

level, if not individual consumer level

Now that we have stopped being awestruck by the sheer amount of data that is

creating “insights”, it is time to address issues like data bias

Focus will shift to predictive accuracy vs. backward-looking campaign scorecard

Advanced probability based models will be explored to compensate for data

biases and for understanding non-addressable offline media

THANK YOU!

[email protected]

[email protected]

QUESTIONS?