Introduction to trend research

COMMUNICATION

2015

# introductionto trend research

S E M I O S E A R C H . LT

b l o g :

I D E A G R O U P

c o m p a n y :

we build brands based on insights, but we build them for the future and not for the present or the past

FORESIGHT AND INSIGHTS…

we build brands based on insights, but we build them for the future and not for the present or the past

FORESIGHT AND INSIGHTS

…

…

that’s why we need foresight as much as insight

NOW AND FUTUREwhat we are doing right now is defined by how we see the future and it is seeing through corners that enhances our abilities to achieve more

TRENDtrends usually do not emerge due to the activities of the people who created them

WHO?

TRENDthere are two types of people involved in the trend creation process

WHO?

TRENDtrend-creators

trend-setters

TRENDtrend-creators

trend-setters

usually create something new and innovative and stick to it without much digression

are people that take up something new and then make it a trend

THE POWER OF A TRENSETTER

let’s take an analogy of a video going viral – in most cases trends work the

same way

THE POWER OF A TRENSETTER

a trendsetter shares the obscure video and the very moment its views start climbing exponentially

a video that is yet to become viral lies there in total neglect with a few views up to a couple of years (in some cases more than six)1

2

3and finally this is what we come to know as the viral video

GROUPS

poly-social mono-social

groups that have more social contacts with

other groups that differ from themselves

groups that have little social contacts with


TRENDSETTER

GROUPS


the young, style - conscious, subcultures, artists, celebrities, the

wealthy, designers, people in creative

industries





TRENDSETTER

GROUPS


the young, style - conscious, subcultures, artists, celebrities, the

wealthy, designers, people in creative

industries





showing: curiosity, desire to

explore, social influence

TRENDSETTER

MINDSET

imaginative practical

TRENDSETTER

vs

variety fixationvs

independence conformityvs

change practicalvs

TREND-SPOTTINGGAME

we observe how the trendsetters observe trends

CONDITIONSFOR A TREND

for a trend to emerge and grow it has to meet certain requirements

HOW?


observable

imitable

it is easy to adopt it, there are little entry barriers, it is not extreme

it is easy to observe and notice the change or the change elements

only when several different trend-setter groups pick up the trend

with a large number of trendsetters embracing the trend in each group

different groups taking up related trends from different types of industries

group industry number

1 2 3


trend-creators

trend-followers

trend-setters

early-mainstreamers

later-mainstreamers

laggards

anti-innovators

trends as any type of innovation have to go

through groups of

people having

different attitudes towards

novelties, innovation

and change

trend-creators

trend-followers

trend-setters

early-mainstreamers

later-mainstreamers

laggards

anti-innovators

only starting following a trend after the early-mainstreamers have hopped in – not adopting anything unless others have

open to innovation, but need confirmation from others

they have people they look up to and follow and take something up as soon as they see their role-models doing that

for them change is a positive thing – they search and look everywhere, adopt and communicate about it

innovating in their respective fields, creating trends, but usually not setting them

always taking the opposite approach to

a trend

taking something up only after the later-

mainstreamers are in

THREE LEVELS

there are three levels on which trends manifest themselves – the levels are distinguished on the basis of possible number of micro-trends that made them up

trend research aims to be multi-dimensional as otherwise it risks at mistaking fads for trends or not understanding the real significance of trends or reasons that are driving the change

THREE LEVELS

there are three levels on which trends manifest themselves – the levels are distinguished on the basis of possible number of micro-trends that made them up

the first level consists of areas that feature most fundamental and long-shifting trends, the last one – the most personal and dynamic trends

THREE LEVELS

GENERAL LEVEL

PERSONAL LEVEL

COLLECTIVE LEVEL

POLITICS, ECONOMICS, LEGISLATION, ENVIROMENT

CULTURE, SOCIETY, COMMUNICATION,ORGANIZATIONS

CONSUMPTION, WELL-BEING, LIFE-STYLE

1

23

THREE LEVELS

GENERAL LEVEL

PERSONAL LEVEL

COLLECTIVE LEVEL




1

23

the three levels are inter-related and changes in some of them relate to changes in others

THREE LEVELS

GENERAL LEVEL

PERSONAL LEVEL

COLLECTIVE LEVEL




1

23

the three levels are inter-related and changes in some of them relate to changes in others

just think of the inter-relation between new forms of digital-social

communication, social forms of cyber-bullying and new legislation redefining the definition of being liable for certain

forms of online communication

REA

LIS

TIC

SC

EN

AR

IOS ID

EA

LIST

SC

EN

AR

IOS

REA

LIS

TIC

SC

EN

AR

IOS ID

EA

LIST

SC

EN

AR

IOS

static

dynamic optimistic

radical

likely, conservative

in nature, predictable

likely, conservative in nature, predictable

overturning beliefs with complete alternative

taking into account possible

disruptive trends

REA

LIS

TIC

SC

EN

AR

IOS ID

EA

LIST

SC

EN

AR

IOS

static

dynamic optimistic

radical

likely, conservative

in nature, predictable

different to existing strategies and codes

overturning situation with complete alternative

taking into account possible

emergent trends

WHAT TRENDSHAVE IMPACT

ON THESE SCENARIOS?

DIFFERENT WAYS TO ANALYZE

TRENDS

expert panels /trend-scouts

semiotic / cultural analysis

extrapolation / scenario building

literature / data analysis

scientificstatisticalanalysis

finding themes, theories and expert formulated trends that originate in a specific field – usually a preparatory part for a more expansive trend research project

analyzing cultural codes to determine the cultural progression of certain conceptions and understanding and marking potential developments. This entails working with cultural artifacts and texts and performing content analysis.

statistical operations that allow to project changes in the future

gathering information on emerging trendsthrough pre-recruited panels

consumerresearchanalyzing cultural codes to determine the cultural progression of certain conceptions and understanding and marking potential developments. This entails working with cultural artifacts and texts and performing content analysis.

constructing how present developments might possibly develop in the future

counter-trend

mainstream

counter-trend

mainstream

peripheral trends

counter-trend

mainstream

peripheral trends

most of the trends start as the reaction to the mainstream and work as ball bouncing back and forth

MACROTRENDmicrotrend

microtrend

microtrend

microtrend

MACROTRENDmicrotrend

microtrend

microtrend

microtrend

try to think of the trends as a network – it the dots are

connected, most probably you are stumbling on something

important

BACK-TO-THE ROOTS

roots rediscovery

/ simple ingredients

heirloom varieties /

antique eats

open kitchen

restaurant

green supply chain

HIGH / LOW CULTURE

craft beer /beer

sommelier

reinstating hamburger

simple ingredient

kitchen

pizzarevival /gourmet doughnuts

TREND RESEARCH LAYS THE GROUND WORK FOR MEANINGFUL AND CONTINUOUS INNOVATION

INNOVATION SPOTTING

REVERSEINNOVATIONRESEARCH

REVERSEINNOVATIONRESEARCH

one way of working with trends is through the

lens of business innovations and the

actual change in consumers that make it

all possible




all possible

businessinnovations

consumerneeds

consumerexpectations




all possible

businessinnovations

consumerneeds


it is reverse, because you don’t start with social change or consumer needs analysis, but with what is actually happening with business/service/product landscape – what new thinking is

emerging in different markets – this points you further, i. e. what actually the users are searching for that these businesses are trying to provide

1 2 3




all possible

businessinnovations

consumerneeds


what changes are happening internally and externally, how does that affect various stakeholders (employees, management, communities and consumers)?

what does that say about the consumer? what specific needs do these innovations address?

how is that going to change consumer perceptions and expectations for futre offerings and services

CONFIGURATION OFFERS EXPERIENCE

profit model

network

processes

product performance

INNOVATIONS

product/service ecosystem

service

channels

branding

consumers

structure

innovations might occur in any part of the business: it can be on the visible side, or the

internal-facing part of the business. In any case the innovation framework might help identify the

occurring changes

CONFIGURATION OFFERS EXPERIENCE

profit model

network

processes

product performance

INNOVATIONS

product/service ecosystem

service

channels

branding

consumers

-how you make money?-how you connect with others to create value?-how you organize your talent and assets?-what methods you use for your work?

structure

-how do you develop distinguishing features and functionality?-how do you create complementary products and services?-how you support and amplify the value of your offerings

-how do you deliver your offerings to customers and users?-how do you represent your offerings and business?-how do manage customer interactions?

once the innovation becomes applied it is just common sense

SUBSCRIPTIONownership model


let’s say we take the subscription model – we can see how lately it has been proliferated across different industries: starting with periodicals, going to software, now even present in hardware



but the rapid adoption of the subscription pricing model became possible only because of the changing attitudes towards ownership and generally – having stuff.




and the mindset has started changing due to certain tangible aspects of our lives: the increase in spending power, the speed of innovations, amount of stuff that is possible to keep at home and etc.




and the mindset has started changing due to certain tangible aspects of our lives: the increase in spending power, the speed of innovations, amount of stuff that is possible to stuff at home and etc.

SO business profit model and product performance innovations have become possible due to changing living conditions and behavioral attitudes – it‘s all connected

CULTURAL ANALYSIS

cultural innovation might bring brand into new territories by allowing them to capitalize on ideological opportunities. But this requires in-depth knowledge of the cultural code dynamics and the possible futures.

RESIDUAL DOMINANT EMERGENT

a code is a particular way that configuration of different meaningful elements are prescribed with determined meanings ( as in certain elements denoting craft culture)


a code is a particular way that configuration of different meaningful elements are prescribed with determined meanings ( as in certain elements denoting craft culture)

code can be described as a cultural currency that changes over time – new codes take the central position and push out the old ones


codes that are regarded as old-fashioned and are less

relevant taking into the account the changing

cultural landscape

the mainstream codes that mark the status-quo interpretation of the

phenomenon

niche and new codes that propose alternative ways of evaluating / interpreting /

decoding cultural phenomenon

EXAMPLE

it is rather easy to notice change in the way certain roles are codified – what is important are not the actors or their role, but the concepts of the hero and man they represent


so the first step while working with codes is to identify what is actually changing and what is staying the same


so the first step while working with codes is to identify what is actually changing and what is staying the same

while using semiotics this entails looking closely at how relationships between different elements change within the stories analyzed: the hero and the organization, the hero and the enemy, the hero and the damsel in distress and etc.

that really interests us, we have to look outside for codes that might influence or have influenced the evolution of our hero

THE NEXT STEPas it is the

that really interests us, we have to look outside for codes that might influence or have influenced the evolution of our hero

THE NEXT STEPas it is the

and by doing this we might trace the overall changes in the hero type: i. e. him working against the system, outside of it, having a different relationship with the one to be saved and all the rest that can not be saved

SUPERHEROESACTION HEROES

HERO ARCHETYPES IN

MODERN FICTION

DETECTIVEFICTION / MILITARY FICTION

IF STUCKthink about all the related areas and changes in them that might possibly affect the development of the BOND archetype

sorting out the emergent codes from the residual ones, a trend research might start building future cultural

trajectories and scenarios

performance

imp

ort

an

ce

brands fulfil certain consumer needs and neglect others. Certain aspects of brand activity have different impact on perceived brand value.

performance

imp

ort

an

ce


when brand perform well in certain aspects, the consumer needs are fulfilled and with time become less and less prominent

performance

imp

ort

an

ce



and then those brand aspects appear here – in the high performance but low importance quadrant

performance

imp

ort

an

ce




and this in turn gives rise to new consumer needs that have to be fulfilled for the brands to stay afloat

performance

imp

ort

an

ce




and this in turn gives rise to new consumer needs that have to be fulfilled for the brands to stay afloat

CONSUMER NEEDS DYNAMICS

as the trends themselves emerge across different fields

and areas, within different communities, so the methods that are used to uncover them should be diverse – looking at

different aspects of trend landscape and integrating

findings in one system

the trick is to start with the most observable changes moving away to most abstract and least

tangible areas

CHANGES IN CONSUMERPRIORITIES

BUSINESS INNOVATIONS

EXPERT / PROSUMEROPPINIONS

CULTURAL TRENDS

THE LAST STAGE – integrating qualitative and quantitative data

and building future scenarios based on it

modern life

follow culture

product ownership

1950

1980

NOW

FUTURE

exploring lifestyle

experimentation / social taboo

product experience

individual empowerment

creativity

self-actualization

system / collective problems

empathy and cooperation

meaningful life

buy

express yourself

participate

co-create in network

SIGNS OF CHANGE

FUTURE

we can already witness change occurring throughout different areas and industries that signal that we are entering into a new era of consumption

the infolust trend is already having some negative consequences as people are starting to suffer from burn out from learning and are seeking meaningful learning patterns or even learning detox

INFOLUST

TREND CHANGE

since knowledge is becoming democratized and people no longer want to listen, but also to share something useful that they have

INFOSHARE

learning more to efficiently do a job and become experts in a respective field, enabling an individual to learn

LEARNINGORGANIZATION

TREND CHANGE

being ready to adapt to any situation; open to possibilities and future developments; flat hierarchical structures

RESPONSIVEORGANIZATION

collecting and tracking your own health-data to become a better / healthier person

INDIVIDUALHEALTH

TREND CHANGE

collecting a network data and working with that to provide better health information and service to individuals

HEALTHNETWORK

BRANDS

some of the most prominent and successful brands that we know today have become such because of the timely trend adoption – let’s

take a look

and trends

stay properly hydrated trend

vitamin-a-day

form follows function

sugary drinks and taste

CONTEXT: emerging in the market that is saturated with products that offer new and stronger tastes, alarm bells of obesity crisis

the rise of the bottled water trend and the thinking that we need to stay properly hydrated throughout the day

vitamins can keep you healthy and protected against diseases and illnesses

Vitamin water – brand that literally embodied the emergent trends of the time and put them at the very center of its identity

design language that ditches the over the top promises and goes for the functional

willpower (working not winning)

societal discrimination

individual competition

EMERGENT COUNTER-CULTURE: turning away from team sports to personal competition, from athletes to people; u

using the images of the marginalized groups and athletes

emphasizing not the result, but the actual efforts it takes to get somewhere

NIKE becoming the brand we know today not by making new and innovative products, but employing counter-cultural communication strategies

community business

counter enterprise

sustainability

back-to-the-land

based on the rising critique of the American economic system and its values

explicitly stating their position and attitude towards rival corporate players’ actions

putting sustainability at the core of the business, instead of parading under its flag

reacting to family farm business problems

BEN&JERRYS working around numerous related trends that have emerged back in 1980’s and have been greatly affecting businesses since then.

http://coolhunting.com/

http://www.thecoolhunter.net/

http://www.jwtintelligence.com/

http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/

http://trendcentral.com/

http://trendwatching.com/ http://www.fastcodesign.com/http://trendwolves.com/

http://springwise.com/

NEXT PART COMING

SOON

would like to learn more, have a trend workshop or dive into your industry trends?

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Introduction to trend research