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Rand Fishkin, Wizard of Moz | @randfish | [email protected]
Great Failures in Competitive IntelWhy so many analyses of the competition fail, and
how web marketers can improve the process
bit.ly/randintelfail
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Tragically Common,
Competitive Intel Failures4
Assuming Knowledge of the
Root Cause
#1
We’ve analyzed 50 of our most
important search terms and found
that the top organic result almost
never appears in the ads
We think this is due
to Google’s
preference for
diversity in their
SERPs.
Via Econsultancy
Recommended Action:Test removal of our paid search
campaigns for a subset of keywords.
Recommended Action:Test removal of our paid search
campaigns for a subset of keywords.
This isn’t necessarily a crazy, terrible idea.
So why do most of us know it won’t work?
Observation:We saw X.
A Flawed Competitive Intel Process
Analysis:We collected data.
Correlation:We validated X’s
frequency.
Recommendation:We proposed an experiment.
A Process
Observation:We saw X.
Analysis:We collected data.
Correlation:We validated frequency.
Recommendations:We proposed validation methods for each potential cause.
Hypotheses:We brainstormed potential
root causes.
Mistaking a few Outliers for a
Representative Sample Set
#2
Competing in help desk
software will require a very high
domain authority
Err.. Wait, maybe not.
We Bias to What We Know
Given my background in search, I often conflate
rankings success with business success
And We Bias to Outliers
Via NYTimes: Silicon Valley’s Startup Machine
Often to the Detriment of the Truth
Funding only <25yr-old, college-dropout
founders is terribly limitingVia HBR
This Isn’t the
Only Way to Skin
a Cat.
Hammered Metal Lion by Selçuk Yılmaz
A Solution
Cast a Wide Net
Analyze:Our four biggest
competitors in the
search rankings.
Cast a Wide Net
Analyze:Our four biggest
competitors in the
search rankings.
Analyze:A broad range of
competitors, noting
correlations that predict
both failure and success
e.g.
Instead of looking
exclusively at the
tactics of top ranking
sites…
e.g.
We look at the what
high ranking sites do
that lower ranking
sites don’t.
e.g.
AND try to understand
how sites that perform
poorly in search
results may be
attracting traffic and
leads through other
channels
Overinvesting
in Imitation
#3
Via Visual Website Optimizer
Could this
actually HURT
conversion?
Via Visual Website Optimizer
Via Visual Website Optimizer
A/B Test Results
Page without the shield icon had 400%+ CR
improvement vs page with the icon.
[Note: results ARE statistically significant]
We need to remove the
security messages on our
site ASAP!
We should test this.
Is this the most meaningful test we
can perform right now?
(I’m not saying it isn’t, just that we
should prioritize intelligently)
Via Kayak’s Most Interesting A/B Test
vs.
Via Kayak’s Most Interesting A/B Test
A/B Test Results
“So we decided to do our own experiment about this and
we actually found the opposite that when we removed the
messaging, people tended to book less.”
- Vinayak Ranade, Director of Engineering for Mobile, KAYAK
Good thing we
tested!
Good thing we
tested!
Your evidence is
no match for my
ignorance!
2 Problems
#1: We don’t know for certain why or whether a
tactic worked (or if it will work for us).
#2: Copying a competitor’s strategy ensures
that we lag rather than leap them.
Underinvesting in Your Own,
Unique Strengths
#4
What’s Our Competition
Doing?
Blogging
Google+
Events
PR
In-Person Sales
Social Ads
Retargeting
CRO
Outdoor
Radio
Video
PinterestReddit
Image Search
SEO
PPC
TV
Display
Blogging
Google+
Events
PR
In-Person Sales
Social Ads
Retargeting
CRO
Outdoor
Radio
Video
PinterestReddit
Image Search
SEO
PPC
TV
Display
Blogging
Google+
Events
PR
In-Person Sales
Social Ads
Retargeting
CRO
Outdoor
Radio
Video
PinterestReddit
Image Search
SEO
PPC
TV
Display
We Should Do These.
A Question
Things We Can
Do Better Than
Anyone Else
Tactics That Will
Reach &
Resonate With
Customers
What can we do here?
Things We Can
Do Better Than
Anyone Else
Tactics That Will
Reach &
Resonate With
Customers
Well, we’re unusually great at
visual content…
BloggingGoogle+
Events
In-Person Sales
Retargeting
CRO
Outdoor
Radio
Reddit SEO
PPC
TV
DisplayTwitter
PRSocial Ads
Video
Image Search
Now the 2 Questions Become…
TwitterPR
Social AdsVideo
Image Search
Which of these channels/tactics can
successfully reach our audience?
Now the 2 Questions Become…
TwitterPR
Social AdsVideo
Image Search
Who’s great at this stuff, and what
are they doing that works?
