eMarketer Webinar: Key Digital Trends for 2017

2016 eMarketer Inc.

Key Digital Trends for 2017A Glance Back at 2016, A Look Ahead to 2017

December 2016

Ezra PalmerContent Chief

Cathy BoylePrincipal Analyst

Lauren FisherSenior Analyst

2016 eMarketer Inc.

How Have Our Predictions Held Up?

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#1: US digital ad spending wont surpass TV ad spending

(Not in 2016, anyway)

2016 eMarketer Inc.

2016 eMarketer Inc.

2014 2015 2016 2017

$72.7 B

$67.1 B

US Ad Spending, September 2015

Source: eMarketer, Sep 2015

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2016 eMarketer Inc.

$71.3 B

US Ad Spending, September 2016

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Chart1

68.5449.69

68.8859.82

71.2972.09

72.7282.86

$72.1 B


TV

Digital

Sheet1

TVDigital

201468.5449.69

201568.8859.82

201671.2972.09

201772.7282.86

2016 eMarketer Inc.

Whats behind the accelerated crossover and what does it mean for the future of advertising? Ezra Lauren

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2016 eMarketer Inc.

Google and Facebook success, tech advances and mobile shift are key contributors

2016: $29.6B ^ 19.8% 40.9%

2017: $33.9B ^ 14.8% 41.3%

2016: $11.9B ^ 48.6% 16.6%

2017: $15.2B ^ 27.3% 18.3%

US Net Digital Ad Revenues

Precise targeting

Better measurement

Shift to mobile


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2016 eMarketer Inc.

A few additional reasons: growth in programmatic and digital video spending

$25.2B$31.9B

$37.9B

US Programmatic DigitalDisplay Ad Spending US Digital Video Ad Spending

$10.3B $12.6B$14.4B


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Chart1

25.230.442

31.870.263

37.880.189

Billions

% change

Sheet1

Billions% change

2016$25.2344.20%

2017$31.8726.30%

2018$37.8818.90%

Chart1

10.30.341

12.60.218

14.40.147

Billions

% change

Sheet1

Billions% change

2016$10.3034.10%

2017$12.6021.80%

2018$14.4014.70%

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#2: The voice of the consumer will be heard

Were talking about consumers actual voices

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Search and native social pages will drive voice activity growth

Volume from search will rise more than 15%, and the volume from social will nearly double

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Are voice-based interfaces the next mobile frontier for marketers and advertisers?

CathyEzra

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31% YOY Growth 2015 to 2016

The volume of inbound calls to businesses from mobile devices is growing at double-digit rates

Source: BIA/Kelsey, July 2016

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2016 eMarketer Inc.

86 billion

Marketers need to be prepared for a heavier volume of inbound calls, now and going forward

But ...BIA/Kelsey did adjust its 2016 projection downward

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$1 Trillion

Still, inbound calls from mobile phones will influence roughly one-third of in-store sales

Source: BIA/Kelsey, July 2016

In-store retail spending influenced by inbound calls from mobile users in the US

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Voice-initiated search queriesmake up 20% of all queries made through Googles mobile app

1 in 5 The number of

searches initiated by voice

Source: Google, Sep 2016

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2%The number of

households with voice-activated

assistant devices in 2016

Source: Strategy Analytics, Aug 2016

1.8 million voice-activated assistant devices are projected to be sold in the US this year

Most will be Amazon Echo

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#3: Mobile payments will take off

In 2016, the divide between digital and physical commerce will be

bridged further

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US Mobile Payment Users

2014 2015 2016 2017

23.2 M

50.2 M

37.5 M

16.4 M

Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015

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Average Annual Spend per US Mobile Payment User

2014 2015 2016 2017

$375

$1,231

$721

$224


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Annual Mobile Payments Transaction Value

2014 2015 2016 2017

$8.7 B

$61.8 B

$27.1 B

$3.7 B


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Is there still a case for rapid US mobile payments growth or are expectations tempered? Ezra Lauren

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Two data points, of many, that point to growth:

Other sources see increased penetration High interest among younger consumers

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#4: Facebook will become nearly entirely mobile

More than three-quarters of Q3 2015 ad revenue was mobile

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US Facebook users who access the social network exclusively via desktop or laptop will number less than 14 million in 2016

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Will Facebooks mobile growthin both users and ad revenuehit a ceiling this year?

CathyEzra

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Theres still room for growth in the number of mobile Facebook users

Source: eMarketer, Aug 2016

86%of Facebook users will

access the platform from a mobile phone

2016

90%of Facebook users will

access the platform from a mobile phone

2018

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The story is similar on the advertising fronttheres still room for growth on the mobile side

85%of Facebooks US ad revenue will come from mobile ads

2016

90%of Facebooks US ad revenue will come from mobile ads

2018


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#5: Facebook wont kill YouTube

Different platforms, different solutions for marketers

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YouTube US Ad Revenues, 20152019

2015 2016 2017 2018

$2.2 B$2.9 B

$3.4 B$3.9 B


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Facebooks video penetration has reached competitive levels in less than two years

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How much of a threat to YouTube is Facebooks progress with scaling digital video?

CathyEzra

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More US internet users turn to YouTube for video viewing than Facebook

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YouTube has proven to be a reliable platform for delivering a positive return on investment

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A battle is being waged over the live video viewing audienceFacebook and YouTube are tied

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#6: Young people wont abandon Facebook in droves

Still not true

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Is Snapchat making a dent in Facebook usage among teens and millennials?

Ezra Lauren

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2016 eMarketer Inc.

Facebook and Instagram remain dominant social media platforms for millennials, but Snapchat is growing in popularity

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#7: Ad blocking wont get solved in 2016

The problems of ad blocking and ad avoidance will persist

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Ad blocking hasnt been solved, but what progress has been made?

CathyEzra

Lauren#eMwebinar

2016 eMarketer Inc.

Ad blocking penetration rates in US and UK will slow in 2017, but still see double-digit growth

Ad Blocking PenetrationAmong Internet Users

Source: eMarketer, April 2016, June 2016

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Chart1

0.20.14

0.2630.205

0.320.27

US

UK

Sheet1

USUK

201520%14%

201626.30%20.50%

201732%27%

2016 eMarketer Inc.

Publishers are making progress with ad blocking in multiple ways

1. Passively reviewing ad blocking activity to better quantify its effects on revenues and audiences

2. Preventing users who employ ad blockers from accessing their content

3. Circumventing the ad blockers and serving ads anyway

4. Detecting ad blockers and giving consumers options

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Stay Tuned for Our Predictions for 2017!

2017 Trends: The Future of Digital Marketing

Charm BianchiniSr. Director of Marketing Marketo@charmbianchini

Marketo | Marketo, Inc.

Trend 1: Technology

Marketers will leverage marketing technology more than ever before to scale and guide their customers at exactly the right place and the right time


Trend 2: Personalization

Marketers will improve their level of personalization and move from basic targeting to advanced, orchestrated customer experiences across channels


Trend 3: Account focus

Marketers will continue to shift from lead-centric to account-specific insights to penetrate companies within their sweet spot

Thank You

Charm BianchiniSr. Director of Marketing Marketo@charmbianchini

2016 eMarketer Inc.

Our Predictions for 2017

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#1: Artificial Intelligence

Our prediction: AI will not put marketers out of work. (At least not in 2017)

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#2: Papering Over Privacy

Our prediction: Internet users still wont change their behaviors despite hacking scares

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#3: Live Digital Video Will Clear a Huge Hurdle

Our prediction: Sometime in 2017, a live video stream will win a primetime-sized audience

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#4: Chatbot Reality Check

Our prediction: Chatbots in 2017? All talk and no action

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#5: Truly, Mobile, Deeply

Our prediction: 2017 will be the year of authentically mobile experiences

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#6: Food for Thought

Our prediction: Online grocery shopping will jump in 2017. And brick-and-mortar stores will play a starring role

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#7: Attribution Arises

Our prediction: Marketers will make the move to more complex forms of attribution modeling in 2017

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#8: The Medium Is the Message

Our prediction: 2017 will be the tipping point for mobile messaging. More than half of mobile users will use messaging apps

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#9: Fluent in Influencing

Our prediction: Influencers will take a significant chunk of the ad market in 2017

2016 eMarketer Inc.

#10: Let the Games Begin

Our prediction: Virtual Reality wont be a significant marketing channel until hardware becomes more widespread

2016 eMarketer Inc.

The Predictions for 2017 AI will not put marketers out of

work. (At least not in 2017.)

Internet users still wont change their behaviors despite hacking scares.

Sometime in 2017, a live video stream will win a primetime-sized audience.

Chatbots in 2017? All talk and no action.

2017 will be the year of authentically mobile experiences.

Online grocery shopping will jump in 2017. Brick-and-mortar stores will play a starring role.

Marketers will shift to more complex forms of attribution.

2017 will be the tipping point for mobile messaging.

Influencers will take a big chunk of the ad market in 2017.

VR wont be a significant marketing channel until hardware becomes more widespread.

Slide Number 1Slide Number 2#1: US digital ad spending wont surpass TV ad spendingSlide Number 4US Ad Spending, September 2015US Ad Spending, September 2016Whats behind the accelerated crossover and what does it mean for the future of advertising? Google and Facebook success, tech advances and mobile shift are key contributorsA few additional reasons: growth in programmatic and digital video spending#2: The voice of the consumer will be heardSearch and native social pages will drive voice activity growthSlide Number 12Are voice-based interfaces the next mobile frontier for marketers and advertisers?The volume of inbound calls to businesses from mobile devices is growing at double-digit rates Slide Number 15Still, inbound calls from mobile phones will influence roughly one-third of in-store salesSlide Number 17Slide Number 18#3: Mobile payments will take offUS Mobile Payment UsersAverage Annual Spend per US Mobile Payment UserAnnual Mobile Payments Transaction ValueIs there still a case for rapid US mobile payments growth or are expectations tempered?Two data points, of many, that point to growth: #4: Facebook will become nearly entirely mobileUS Facebook users who access the social network exclusively via desktop or laptop will number less than 14 million in 2016Will Facebooks mobile growthin both users and ad revenuehit a ceiling this year?Theres still room for growth in the number of mobile Facebook usersThe story is similar on the advertising fronttheres still room for growth on the mobile side#5: Facebook wont kill YouTubeYouTube US Ad Revenues, 20152019Facebooks video penetration has reached competitive levels in less than two yearsHow much of a threat to YouTube is Facebooks progress with scaling digital video?More US internet users turn to YouTube for video viewing than FacebookYouTube has proven to be a reliable platform for delivering a positive return on investmentA battle is being waged over the live video viewing audienceFacebook and YouTube are tied#6: Young people wont abandon Facebook in drovesIs Snapchat making a dent in Facebook usage among teens and millennials?Facebook and Instagram remain dominant social media platforms for millennials, but Snapchat is growing in popularity#7: Ad blocking wont get solved in 2016Slide Number 41Ad blocking hasnt been solved, but what progress has been made?Ad blocking penetration rates in US and UK will slow in 2017, but still see double-digit growthPublishers are making progress with ad blocking in multiple waysSlide Number 452017 Trends: The Future of Digital MarketingSlide Number 47Slide Number 48Slide Number 49Thank YouSlide Number 51Slide Number 52Slide Number 53Slide Number 54Slide Number 55Slide Number 56Slide Number 57Slide Number 58Slide Number 59Slide Number 60Slide Number 61The Predictions for 2017