eMarketer Webinar: Eight Trends to Watch for Social Marketing 2015

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

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Eight Trends to Watch for Social

Marketing 2015

Debra Aho Williamson

Principal Analyst

October 23, 2014


Agenda

Overview: Social marketing usage and spending

Eight Trends to Watch

Key Takeaways

Twitter – #eMwebinar


Social Marketing

Usage and Spending


Social media marketing is nearly ubiquitous

89% of US

marketers

will use

social media

marketing

next year



Spending on social is rising, particularly for paid

advertising

“Across the board, I think we’re looking to increase

spending for social. I think there was this

mantra that Facebook is free, but the

model has changed.”

—Josh Martin, director of digital and social media, Arby’s Restaurant Group



Marketers are

allocating

close to 10%

of budgets to

social media

9.4%Percentage of current marketing

budget allocated to social media

13.2%Percentage of marketing budget

expected to be allocated to social

media in the next 12 months

Source: Duke University Fuqua School of Business, July-August 2014



But there is still unease over the path to success



It doesn’t help that social media keeps changing

Is it an ad

network?

A video

distribution

platform?

An

ecommerce

engine?



eMarketer’s viewpoint:

Marketers must be as

sophisticated at

integrating social media

into their marketing

plans …

… as consumers are at

incorporating social

media into their

everyday lives.



Trend No. 1

Social Ad Spending Will Increase,

But Doubts Will Remain


US ad spending on social networks is exceeding

previous eMarketer forecasts

$8.76

$6.92

$7.30

$5.82

2015

2014

Dec-13 forecast (billions) Sep-14 forecast (billions)

Source: eMarketer, 2013/2014



In the US,

Facebook’s

share of

digital ad

spending is

outpacing

adults’ time

spent

on the social

platform



Action steps: paid social advertising

Get serious about targeting: “We’re able to be extremely specific

with social media targeting. We no longer need to waste money hoping

that our messaging finds its way to the right people.”

—Kellee Montgomery, Ford Motor Co.

It’s not a mass medium: “I think marketers hold just as much, if not

more, culpability because they’re using these platforms with a mass

marketing mentality rather than trying to figure out how to target

effectively.” —Scott Monty, SHIFT Communications

Sync up content and media planning: “If brands are separately

planning their media spends and their content strategies, then they may

be disappointed at the results.” —Matt Wurst, 360i



Trend No. 2

Organizations Will Move

Social out of the Silo


Integration is

important to a

majority of

businesses

(but it’s also

challenging)

69%Percentage of marketers who agree

that integrating social with broader

marketing is a priority

17.5%Percentage of marketers who

“completely agree” they have done so

Source: Forbes and Wipro, Aug. 2014; Forrester Consulting and Spredfast, July 2014



Action steps: structuring for social

Streamline communications: “You should have that client

quarterback in the huddle, that brand manager telling his internal team

and agencies which routes they need to run. In the past there has been

either an absence of or too many people calling plays.” —Matt Wurst, 360i

Empower product teams: “Our marketing division reorganized and

put more social media responsibility into the product groups. It makes

complete sense, because they're the closest to the demographics for

those products.” —Scott DeYager, Toyota

Give social leaders budget authority: “The budgets in most

organizations still sit with brand marketing teams. The [social] centers of

excellence often … are hamstrung because they don't have budget

authority.” —Marshall Manson, Social@Ogilvy



Trend No. 3

When It Comes to Content,

Less Is More


The pace of growth in marketing content on

Facebook is slowing

+146%

+31%

Source: Socialbakers, 2014



Except for Instagram, interaction rates for brand

posts on the leading social sites are minuscule



Social is a

primary

channel to

distribute

content, but

not the only

one marketers

use



Action steps: content

Segment and target: “We made our strategy more data-driven. We

want to understand our audiences. Who are they? What captures their

attention? And then we tailor our content to their needs.”

—Laura Powers, Cisco Systems

Invest in social listening: “We developed an internal-listening

team. We can look at discussion trends and conversations over time, in

real time, that we can then align future content with.”

—Scott DeYager, Toyota

Act normal: “It’s [about] making sure we’re present in a natural and

native way that feels very endemic to the platform. Like how normal

people would actually be on the platform.” —Sydney Lestrud, GE



Trend No. 4

The Key to ROI Will Come

from Within


If it feels like

we’ve been

talking about

social return

on investment

for years,

you’re right



There’s good

news and bad

news when it

comes to

measurement

80%Percentage of marketers who

measure the success of their social

content

50%Percentage who measure social ROI

(up only 10 points since 2012)

Source: Association of National Advertisers, June 2014; Useful Social Media, July 2014



Nearly 40% of

marketers

worldwide

consider their

social media

measurement

capability

“poor”



Action steps: measurement

Raise the sophistication level: “Analytics tools are useful for

optimizing campaigns, but that’s a long way from demonstrating business

value. We have to be more sophisticated in the way we understand our

clients’ business objectives, apply them to the social space and develop

metrics.” —Marshall Manson, Social@Ogilvy

Value earned impressions: “The media-mix measurement companies

have not advanced nearly enough in incorporating earned media into their

models. If you don't value earned impressions, it’s going to incentivize an

overweighting in paid media.” —Bryan Wiener, 360i

Get input from multiple stakeholders: “It requires a lot of

collaboration to determine what certain behaviors and activities are worth.

We're finally starting to see attribution models mature.” —Joe McCaffrey, Huge



Trend No. 5

Mobile-First Won’t Be Enough;

Start Thinking Mobile-Only


Social activity

is already

heavily

weighted

toward mobile

71%Percentage of US social networking

activity taking place on a mobile

device

29%Percentage taking place on a

desktop or laptop

Source: comScore Media Metrix, June 2014



Eight in 10

social

network users

will use a

mobile phone

to access

social

networks this

year



of Facebook’s

worldwide monthly

active users are

already mobile-only

30%

Source: Facebook, July 2014

Key fact



Action steps: mobile

The mobile experience comes first: “Some companies are

sending content out that does not resize well on mobile. They have to

think of those users on mobile as a whole different beast.” —Jan Rezab,

Socialbakers

It’s easier to grow content designed for mobile than shrink

content designed for a computer: “Marketers should be doing

mobile-only or mobile-first. And if you do mobile-first, it’s so much easier

to scale up than it is to scale down.” —Anne-Marie Kline, DigitasLBi

Capture users in the first sentence: “If we have a huge chunk of

text in a Facebook post, it’s not going to show up that way in mobile. We

always try to have the first sentence be a capture point where people

can learn more.” —Kellee Montgomery, Ford



Trend No. 6

Marketers Will Embrace Video in Social

Media, But Obstacles Will Remain


Facebook is challenging YouTube as a

destination for viewing and uploading

Facebook delivers over 1 billion video views worldwide per

day, over 65% on mobile (Facebook, Sep 2014)

It is wooing producers to upload directly to Facebook rather

than link to YouTube

It had more US desktop video views in Aug. 2014 than

YouTube: 12.3 billion vs. 11.3 billion (comScore, Oct 2014)



It’s not

just about

Facebook:

Teen

consumers

are

gravitating

toward Vine



Social video

effectiveness

has a long

way to grow,

however



Action steps: video

Think unique: “The mistake brands often make—and we made two or

three years ago—was just taking a broadcast commercial and slapping it

in social. Now we’re looking at shorter content. It seems like the shorter

the video, the better it performs.” —Josh Martin, Arby’s

Professional is good; authentic is better: Social users “want a

different type of content. It can’t be overly produced. It does need to be

professional, but for social, authenticity is key.”

—Laura Powers, Cisco

Find partners: “Brands are … not going to be able to reach their

goals by just producing video in-house. They’re going to have to develop

relationships with creative influencers who already have large

established audiences.” —Scott DeYager, Toyota



Trend No. 7

Real-Time Marketing

Will Be Redefined


Instead of

real-time,

focus on

“right-time”:

Personalization

can make

right-time feel

real-time



Marketers are

already

regularly

collecting

social data to

inform

marketing

programs



Action steps: real-time marketing

Right-time can feel real-time: “That thing could have happened

three months ago, but when you received it, it was the perfect thing for

you to get at that time.” —Anne-Marie Kline, DigitasLBi

Measure success by what you do after your real-time

response: It “isn’t what the brand does initially, but how it responds

and reacts. That points to the larger strategic value of real-time: being a

dynamic brand operating in an always-on mode.” —Chris Bowler, Razorfish

Look beyond the mainstream: “We like to tap into moments that

are less mainstream but more aligned with our marketing objectives.

Moments like Inventors’ Day or Gravity Day give us a brand [image]

that’s all about invention and innovation and science.”

—Sydney Lestrud, GE



Trend No. 8

Planning for Facebook-First Won’t

Always Be the Right Strategy


The youth

audience is

spread among

multiple

social

properties



Marketer usage of Pinterest and Instagram is

approaching the 50% mark



Action steps: going beyond Facebook-first

Customize for the platform: “We’ve seen huge organic reach with

Vine because that content is specifically created for Vine. It’s not just

repurposed from Twitter, or we didn’t just take a TV commercial and

shove it into 6 seconds.” —Kellee Montgomery, Ford

Be someone who gets invited: Some social properties “are not

public places. We’re going to have to think about how we can earn the

right to be invited into a more private conversation with consumers.”

—Marshall Manson, Social@Ogilvy

Expect Facebook to learn from its competition: “The new

Facebook usually is Facebook, because they continue to buy these new

technologies. It's interesting to watch how they're going to integrate them

into the existing platform.” —Scott DeYager, Toyota



Key takeaways, part 1

1. Social ad spending will increase, but marketers that do not embrace

the targeting capabilities will be disappointed with the results.

2. Social media will become more integrated into marketing,

rather than being siloed in its own group.

3. When it comes to content, brands will take a “less is more”

approach. At the same time, social media will be just one of many

content distribution vehicles.

4. The key to ROI will come from within. Marketers will get more

serious about using internal metrics to measure social media success, rather

than external ones.



Key takeaways, part 2

5. Thinking mobile-first won’t be enough; marketers should be prepared

for the mobile-only social media user.

6. Marketers will embrace social video, but will struggle with developing

cost-effective content that stands out in the cluttered feed.

7. Real-time marketing will be redefined; it’s less about being ready

with a rapid response and more about delivering a message at the right time.

8. Facebook-first won’t always be the right strategy, as smaller,

more private communities gain traction.


© 2014 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. ADOBE SOCIAL

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Debra Aho Williamson

Eight Trends to Watch for

Social Marketing 2015

Social Marketing Update: Eight Trends to Help Prepare

for 2015

2014 Programmatic Advertising Forecast: Digital Display

Spending Broadening Beyond Open Exchanges

US Time Spent With Media: eMarketer’s Updated Estimates

for 2014

Worldwide Social Network Ad Spending: Midyear 2014

Complete Forecast