1

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

December 2017

22

We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out eight years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic Recovery Indexresults from April 2009 to December 2017.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 10th

to 16th December 2017 inclusive.

See how bad it was eight years ago:https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/economic-recovery-index-december-results-2009

The Economic Recovery Index

33

The ERI – moving sideways…

Source: Amárach Research, December 2017

Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = at the peak).

The Recovery Index and the Irish people’s views on the current and future state of the economy have improved considerably since its lowest point in December 2010.

Recent forecasts for the Irish economy – and consumer spending in particular – suggest that sentiment and spending will both improve in 2018: though the relative stagnation in 2017 in terms of sentiment should caution against too optimistic an outlook.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

Ap

r-0

9

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-1

0

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-1

1

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Economic Recovery IndexApril 2009 – December 2017

44

Economic Recovery Index ScoresTop 10 Bottom 10

Spar 61.3 Virgin Mobile 39.3Pure pharmacy 56.3 Meteor 39.1McCabes pharmacy 55.7 48 Go Conquer 38.9Zurich 54.5 EBS 38.4Energia 54.2 Sam McCauley 37.5Other 50.7 Pre pay power 32.9KBC 50.1 Pinergy 32.8AON Insure 50.0 AA Ireland 32.7No Nonsense 50.0 Local Independent 26.5One Direct 50.0 Marks & Spencers 13.5

Ireland’s most bullish and least bullish customers

We have measured a high correlation between our ERI, consumer confidence and consumer spending.

It is vital that brands understand how wider economic perceptions affect their customers’ perceptions and spending intentions.

The table shows the top 10 brands in terms of their customers’ ERI scores, and the bottom 10 in December 2017.

77

The ERI – Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in Ireland

is getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a few

signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is getting

better and

showing clear

signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is good

and almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Dec-09 49 31 18 2 0 18.3

Dec-10 65 20 14 1 0 12.0

Dec-11 59 24 15 2 0 15.1

Dec-12 49 28 20 3 0 19.5

Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2

Dec-14 16 31 38 13 1 37.9

Dec-15 13 30 34 19 4 43.3

Dec-16 15 29 32 21 3 42.2

Nov-17 17 27 29 24 3 41.9

Dec-17 16 26 31 24 3 43.4

The Recovery Index is lower in comparison to the same point in the previous three years, but with a slight pick up from last month – with the prevailing feeling amongst the nation is again one of stabilisation with a few signs of improvement.

8

Consumer Impact

99

Over these past eight years we have tracked the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of the mood of the nation and the impact on consumer spending, borrowing and saving intentions.

Irish consumers are feeling must less relaxed about spending money this month, perhaps due to Christmas looming and all its associated costs and optimism falling back slightly too.

Consumer Sentiment

% Agree

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am

optimistic in

spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of

the recession

My main

financial

priority is to

pay off my

debts as

quickly as

possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if

I need to

I always buy

the lowest

price products

or services

I always buy

Irish when I

can

Dec-09 43 45 51 56 17 26 57 29

Dec-10 23 34 41 45 11 23 58 21

Dec-11 22 33 39 43 14 27 56 22

Dec-12 26 32 39 43 15 22 54 22

Dec-13 37 40 49 43 22 26 55 26 54 53

Dec-14 40 42 52 43 26 23 55 23 47 50

Dec-15 43 43 51 45 30 25 52 26 54 48

Dec-16 35 46 54 46 36 34 50 35 53 53

Nov-17 37 46 52 43 34 32 59 37 52 58

Dec-17 39 49 55 42 35 33 58 39 54 59

12

Mood of the Nation

1313

The Mood of the Nation

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2017

When we started measuring and reporting theEconomic Recovery Index we wanted it to be more than just another ‘confidence index’.

We therefore set out to measure the full spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish consumers – positive as well as negative – in order to provide a unique insight into the real ‘mood’ of the nation.

Emotions drive buying, saving and investment decisions… and ultimately drive the wider economy: therefore understanding emotions gives us insight into the drivers of short run dynamics in terms of consumer markets and even growth prospects.

Amárach’s work combining emotional insights with advertising effectiveness and policy adoption studies has proven the power of emotional insights to predict future outcomes.

1414

The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2017 (Boredom and loneliness added in Jan and Dec 14)

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70A

pr-

09

May-0

9

Ju

n-0

9

Ju

l-09

Au

g-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Oct-

09

Nov-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Feb

-10

Mar-

10

Ap

r-1

0

May-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

Ju

l-10

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

Nov-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Feb

-11

Mar-

11

Ap

r-1

1

May-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Ju

l-11

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Feb

-12

Mar-

12

Ap

r-1

2

May-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Ju

l-12

Au

g-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Oct-

12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-

13

Ap

r-1

3

May-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-13

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-

13

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Feb

-14

Mar-

14

Ap

r-1

4

May-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Feb

-15

Mar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

May-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

May-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Ju

l-16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-1

7

May-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

Nov-1

7

Dec-1

7

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Anxiety

1515

The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2017 (Boredom and loneliness added in Jan and Dec 14)

-

5

10

15

20

25

30M

ay-0

9

Ju

n-0

9

Ju

l-09

Au

g-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Oct-

09

Nov-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Feb

-10

Mar-

10

Ap

r-1

0

May-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

Ju

l-10

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

Nov-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Feb

-11

Mar-

11

Ap

r-1

1

May-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Ju

l-11

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Feb

-12

Mar-

12

Ap

r-1

2

May-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Ju

l-12

Au

g-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Oct-

12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-

13

Ap

r-1

3

May-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-13

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-

13

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Feb

-14

Mar-

14

Ap

r-1

4

May-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Feb

-15

Mar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

May-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

May-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Ju

l-16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-1

7

May-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

Nov-1

7

Dec-1

7

Sadness Pain Anger Boredom Loneliness

16

Amárach Outlook

1717

With Christmas fast approaching, the scene looks set for a buoyant end to 2017.

The Economic Recovery Index will continue to shed light on consumer trends in Ireland and guide readers to the near term outlook going into 2018.

A Happy Christmas and Peaceful New Year to all our readers and clients.

Outlook – Christmas on the Horizon…

1818

We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.

We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey

You can view the full list (as well as a free dashboard with our latest data and forecasts) here:

Try out the free version for a one week trial period.

http://getPlanR.com/

Get PlanR and get Planning

1919

e. info@amarach.comt. 01 410 5200

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Tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearchs. slideshare.net/amarach/