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Data, Digital, & Social:Trends in 2016 U.S. Elections
Recent & Projected Growth, Digital Ad Spend2
Digital Vs. Other Marketing Channels3
• Overall advertising spend projected to reach $11.4 billion in 2016 cycle, up 20% from 2012 presidential cycle
• Digital will exceed $1.1 billion, up 700% from last presidential cycle. Still only ~9.6% of total.
• Majority still devoted to TV/radio. Now informed by micro-targeting. Lesson of the Romney campaign’s waste on CBS.
• 50% of overall spend on presidential race. 50% other races.
Data Is Not Just Digital4
• Data applications not restricted to digital and TV micro-targeting
• Data models applied to myriad campaign functions, including phone banks, grassroots networks, direct mail, polling, and deployment of campaign volunteers and employees.
• Digital still small portion of the pie. Telemarketing, neighborhood signing, and other elements of “the ground game” still receive larger budgets than digital.
Key Beltway Firms5
• Deep Root Analytics (TV micro-targeting. Bush campaign.)• Optimus (TV micro-targeting. Rubio campaign.)• Cambridge Analytica (Psychographic targeting. Cruz campaign.)• Applecart (Kasich campaign.)• Targeted Victory (Republican/right-wing.)• Revolution Messaging (Hired by Sanders campaign.)• HaystaqDNA (Data analytics. Sanders campaign.)• Bully Pulpit Interactive, Blue State Digital, 270 Strategies, Smoot Tewes
Group (misc. Democratic firms founded by Obama campaign alumni)
Data Collectives6
• Major advantage for Democrats. Collaborative data co-ops and digital tools accessible to all candidates.
• Democrats: ActBlue for fundraising. Catalist for data analytics. ActBlue formed as PAC, not a company. Regarded as an accessible “utility” for all Democrats.
• Democratic NGP VAN. All candidates contribute. Tool is refined and continually used in elections. One-off Republican tools discarded; not maintained.
• Outside of RNC, Republicans in siloes. i360, Koch brothers data/digital company, organized as private company. Data Trust shows promise as effort to match Democratic “utility” structure.
Campaigns Vs. PACs7
• Republicans reliant on super PACs for funding. Democrat fundraising takes place more at campaign level.
• FCC ruling on lowest unit rate for TV ads benefits candidates that spend through their campaign funds. Outside groups – like super PACS - pay market/premium rates. In a crowded market, a super PAC can pay 10x the price available to campaigns.
• Big advantage in efficiencies for Democrats on broadcast TV.
• Lack of price discrimination makes digital especially attractive to Republican super PACS.
Display: Third-Party Data and DMPs8
• Voter CRM data can be uploaded into a DMP for activation anywhere a DSP has reach. Voter data files matched to household IP address info are translated into registered, voted and undecided audience segments, which can be targeted on open exchanges or specific sites/apps.
• Third-party data providers have robust data segments on political audiences, including segments of registered Republicans, Democrats, independents, and on-the-fence prospective voters.
Display: Expanding Audience Pools9
• Shopper marketing data used by many campaigns. Relationship between purchase behaviors and political beliefs not new. The association has been leveraged for targeting since pre-digital direct mail days and has been refined in many election cycles.
• In current cycle, for example, Sanders supporters twice as likely use Kayak and fly on Spirit Airlines as Clinton supporters, who are more likely to use Fitbit or other wearable devices.
• Look-alike modeling based on multiple purchase behaviors also key to expanding targeting pools.
Facebook10
• Voter file matching• Political geo-fencing by congressional district and other electoral
boundaries• Targeting at political influencers “likely to spread political
information”• Predictive political affinities for users• + Traditional FB marketing tools (FB pixels; conversion tracking;
demo/language targeting)• Carson fundraising success• Cruz’s “full-funnel” strategy in Iowa
YouTube11
• In January 2016, political ads led the charts on YouTube for most watched for the first time.
• 3 of 10 most watched ads were political.• Unlike broadcast TV, campaigns not given special dispensation on
YouTube. No federal regulation guarantees a campaign time if other candidates advertise on it.
• YouTube has been particularly attractive to super PACs this election cycle due to lack of price discrimination vs. campaigns.
• Reserved inventory in first primary states sells out fast. Only available inventory possible through non-guaranteed RTB placements.
Pandora12
• “The world of playing the perfect music to people and the world of playing perfect advertising to them are strikingly similar.”
• Zip code data for all users. Political inclinations (e.g., strong republican) and Nielsen-like demo segments (e.g., working class moms; hunting enthusiasts; hybrid car owners).
• Musical preferences as a form of shopper marketing affinity
• Audio channel/interface not optimal for call-to-actions
Snapchat13
• According to one study*, 67% of Snapchat’s millennial users likely to vote in the 2016 election, cf. 61% of millennials overall. Relatively politically engaged for the demo. There is engagement with political content on the platform – stories on the debates proved popular.
• Most campaigns have Snapchat accounts - Bush teased his candidacy announcement on Snapchat - but limited ad spend. Potential, but mostly novelty for this cycle.
• Lack of targeting tools. No voter file data match, unlike Twitter, FB, and IG.• Only basic metrics - unique views, total views, and completion rates. Geo - only down to
state.• No clickable call to actions - no ability to drive leads; traffic; collect an email address.• “You can’t make the argument that you’d buy Snapchat over Facebook, with its targeting
capabilities today, but you could easily make the argument that you should buy it over ABC prime time”
• Conundrum - platform based on privacy and providing useful data to advertisers*Global Strategy Group
Twitter14
• Can onboard voter file data
• Can upload CRM data; e.g., donor email addresses
Instagram15
• Sponsored posts with call to action buttons and free, regular posts• Recent integration (June 2015) of FB targeting tools – including voter file, gender, zip code, interests, relationship
status• Regular posts not regulated as political advertising
Swing Voters16
• As nominating season ends and Republican vs. Democrat race begins, focus turns to swing voters in swing states. The undecided 5-10% of people in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia.
• The big targeting test. Two-pronged.– Ability of campaigns to identify undecided voters – Ability of platforms to zero in on these undecideds in specific geos
• Every platform needs to answer how they permit campaigns to target undecideds – the people that are not in the CRM. Addressing the known base also important but also a solved challenge.
Speed Counts17
• Aside from targeting options and ROI, platforms compete on speed of voter file matching.
• Some platforms require 1-2 weeks; too slow to keep pace with election news cycles.
Sanders’ Digital Volunteers18
• Myriad apps and tools: Bernkit.com compendium
• Reddit; Ground Control app; Bernie BNB; Slack; voteforbernie.org.
• Hillary’s cost of hierarchy vs. the efficient crowd
• The limits become manifest in southern states
Limitations: Earned vs. Paid
“I’m going to do something really novel. It’s called advertising.”
-Jeb Bush October 2015
“I’ve spent no money and I’m No. 1. Other people have spent tens of millions of dollars and they’re floundering and doing poorly.”
-Donald TrumpNovember 2015
19
Limitations: Data over “Product”
· “We have a database of approximately 260 million individuals with about 3,000 data points (e.g. hunting interest, magazine subscriptions, online habits, etc.). We also have more than 30,000 tags built off of previous identification efforts and have made hundreds of thousands of calls into early state voters.
· This data is being used to provide detailed MicroTargeting profiles of voters in key primary states. We know exactly which Republicans are the most likely to vote and what issues matter to them.
· We are running thousands of simulated Election Days using the data we have collected in order to game out different scenarios and better allocate resources.”
-Bush Campaign Memo October 2015
20
Future21
• Continued promotion of earned media through paid channels
• Continued maturation of targeting capabilities on existing and new platforms
• Less broadcast TV. Huge spend = TV as medium of mutually assured destruction.
• Development of platform-specific media teams. Buzzfeed model. Instagram lead for Instagram.
• “There’s a very low ROI on the story of being the first campaign to do whatever with X platform.”
• Candidates themselves shaped by the mediums; e.g., resonant messages for real people; less reliance on elite donors for setting policy priorities. Communication platforms will change expectations of candidates.
• Data will remain central to every initiative, not just digital.
• Could AI determine the perfect candidate?
Who We Are21
1. Cloudburst Media leverages relationships with niche data providers to create custom audience segments for marketers
2. We activate those audience segments on public and private ad exchanges, focusing on our network of 600+ premium publishers
3. We refine those activations in real-time for greater insights and improved performance
