© DataTalk Research Ltd May 2014 Page 1

BCI – Financial Optimism Index; May 2014

Consumer Confidence continues to rise.

The British Consumer Index (BCI) has today (20 May 2014) released the latest Financial Optimism Index.

The Financial Optimism Index measures how people think their personal financial situation will change over the next few months.

The pre-Christmas stalling in confidence seems to have passed with consumers recovering their more optimistic outlook.

The chart (left) shows the trend in Financial Optimism for the population as a whole, however, within that there are wide discrepancies between different sections of the population. Detailed analysis of the data can establish levels of optimism different groups of people and how that is reflected in other behaviors and attitudes.

One example of this is the difference between those people who respond to on line surveys, those who don’t and those who have no internet access.

On Line Surveys Likely to Overestimate Confidence

Many confidence surveys are conducted on line so it is interesting to see this variance in sentiment, see chart below.

It can be seen that the difference takes two forms; firstly those who respond to on line surveys tend to be more optimistic and, secondly they are more volatile in their views. People without internet access are both less optimistic and less volatile although this is more a function of the age profile than anything to do with internet access.

© DataTalk Research Ltd May 2014 Page 2

The British Consumer Index started to collect data on whether people respond to on line surveys and, if so, what type in July 2011. The data shows that there are significant attitudinal differences between those people and the population in general which cannot be accounted for by simply weighting for age, gender life stage etc. in the usual way. In fact, comparisons show that the profile of on line survey responders on these demographic measures is not vastly different to the population as a whole. This data provides quantification of the differences in both demographics and attitude enabling results to be better interpreted and projected to the population as a whole, vital for activities such as market sizing etc.

The Optimists and the Pessimists

Age, Gender and Life Stage are show significant correlations with optimism. Not surprisingly the ‘young free and Single’ tend to be more optimistic particularly if they are male.

Responsibility and Optimism

If being in a family situation or contemplating a family reduces optimism then so does being the main income earner or the main shopper. As can be seen, below, main income earners and main shoppers are less optimistic than those who do not have that responsibility. It could also be argued that those are also the people who have a better first hand knowledge of the realities of economic life and are, therefore, better able to take a more informed view.

For further information, analysis and comment contact:

Steve Abbott; Director; The British Consumer Index

Email; stevea@thebps.co.uk

Tel; 0203 286 1981

Skype; steveathebps

Notes: Figures are collected by The British Population Survey by face to face in home interviews with a population representative sample of 1,000 adults aged 15+ per month (total sample size = 53,916).

Financial Optimism Index values range between 100 (fully positive) and -100 (fully negative).